Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 031903
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
303 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS BROKEN
UP AND A FEW PEAKS OF SUN ARE REACHING THE SURFACE. AS WELL...SOME
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOP BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST STILL SEEMS TO HAVE
A HANDLE ON THIS. HAVE LOADED THE MOST CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1007 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

ISSUED AN UPDATE THIS MORNING TO INPUT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST IN MOST PLACES TO THE EAST.
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO THE WEST WILL LEAD TO SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT. FURTHER BREAK UP OF CLOUD COVER EASTWARD MAY LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST
AS IS FOR NOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

STILL A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OUT THERE THIS MORNING IN THE
EAST...BUT CERTAINLY LESS COVERAGE THAN EARLIER AND THAT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WATCHING THE
TROUGH AXIS TO THE NORTH OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND SOUTHERN OHIO
START TO LIGHT UP WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS SHOULD
SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS FEATURE MOVES IN. OVERALL
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING...SO NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

COLD FRONT HAS NOW SLIPPED INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIP JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE KENTUCKY BY DAYBREAK. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOP ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY...AND MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO BE SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING AND
STALL OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. FARTHER SOUTH...NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS ONCE THE FRONT
EXITS SOUTH AND EAST...SO WILL ACTUALLY SQUEEZE IN A MUCH NEEDED
DRY DAY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TONIGHT...NOT MUCH
CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST INCHING EAST
AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL KICK THINGS OUT AS MID
LEVEL RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL
TEMPORARILY END ANY SHOWER CHANCES. HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS KENTUCKY LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. IMPRESSIVE FORCING
WITH THE FRONT SHOULD YIELD A BROKEN TO PERHAPS WIDESPREAD LINE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE INSTABILITY IS
WEAK...FREEZING LEVELS SHOULD BE COMING DOWN WITH THE FRONT...SO
SOME LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. WITH THE
FREEZING LEVELS ONLY ABOUT 5.5KFT...CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WE COULD
SEE ANY STORMS PRODUCING SOME PEA SIZE HAIL. WILL INCLUDE THE
MENTION OF HAIL IN THE HWO THIS MORNING.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY STAY IN PLACE WITH THE TROUGH AXIS. WILL ALSO GO
SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH LESS VALLEY/RIDGE DISPARITY FOR TONIGHT WITH
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER. TOMORROW...WE MAY BE ABLE TO WARM UP
BRIEFLY BY MIDDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT BRINGS FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH
THE RAIN SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BE PASSING ACROSS KY TO START OFF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...PULLING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR DOWN INTO THE
REGION. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING STRONG N TO S FLOW ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION INTO THE DAY SATURDAY...WHILE THE LOW REMAINS
PARKED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

AT THIS POINT...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY IN
CANADA WILL BEGIN DROPPING SOUTHWARD. THE LOW TO OUR EAST WILL BEGIN
TO DISSOLVE AND MERGE INTO THE INCOMING LOW AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WHILE THE UPPER LOW WILL STAY TO OUR
NE...EXPECT THE RETURN OF NW FLOW TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. THE LOW WILL THEN START SHIFTING EASTWARD...WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TAKING HOLD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

LINGERING PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE SE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND NW TO SE UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. SO
LONG AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW STAY POSITIONED OVER THE
EASTERN COAST...THIS NW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. THE STRONG N TO S
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PULL IN DEEP CAA...WITH HIGHS THURSDAY ONLY
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 50S. AS CONDITIONS BEGIN CLEARING THURSDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF TO THE LOW TO MID 40S...WITH COLDEST
TEMPS LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS. FRIDAY WILL SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT...BUT
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S IS STILL BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS FOR
THE BEGINNING OF MAY.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NUDGES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
MOSTLY CLEAR...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALLOWED TO RISE INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 70S AS WINDS BECOME MORE WRLY NEAR THE SURFACE...TAPPING
INTO WARMER GULF FLOW COMING OUT OF TEXAS. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW
DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD...
ENTERING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT...BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WHILE MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WILL BE CONTAINED CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW
TO OUR NE...STILL EXPECT SOME LOW END CHANCE POPS TO MAKE IT INTO
OUR CWA...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF...BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING ALL THE WAY INTO MONDAY...DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
TAKING HOLD. GENERALLY WRLY FLOW...EVEN ALOFT...AT THIS POINT...WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL IN WARMER TEMPS...TAPPING INTO THE GULF MOISTURE
ACROSS TX. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND STARTING OUT THE NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WHILE MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER HAS LIFTED INTO A CUMULUS LAYER
ACROSS THE AREA...A FEW MVFR CIGS STILL REMAIN. THIS WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT LATER THIS EVENING. AS TEMPS COOL OFF TONIGHT AND NORTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUES...CIGS WILL LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT AND WITH ANY
CLEARING AREAS...SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP. WILL ANTICIPATE IFR AND
BELOW CIGS AGAIN TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING AGAIN AFTER 13Z TOMORROW.
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA...SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL RELATIVELY BE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER


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