Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 271501
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1101 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. SOME LOW LEVEL
DIURNAL CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE CWA...AND SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND SHOWERS APPROACH FROM OUR WEST. SOME RADAR
RETURNS HAVE SHOWN UP JUST SOUTH OF THE JKL OFFICE IN THE LAST
HALF HOUR...BUT ARE QUITE LOW AND LIGHT. WOULD BE HARD PRESSED TO
FIND ANY ACTUAL PRECIP HITTING THE GROUND OUT OF THIS...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN CASE ANY UPDATES TO POPS NEED TO BE MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 820 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
WILL ATTEMPT TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS...BEFORE CLOUDS BUILD BACK IN OUT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MAIN BATCH OF PRECIPITATION HAS WORKED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ONLY SOME REMAINING VERY LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE LEFT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE
SETTLED INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS WHERE
CLOUDS HAVE THINNED. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS ARE IN THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
BORDERING VIRGINIA...WHERE LOWER 30S AND POSSIBLY HIGH 20S ARE IN
PLACE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH A
DEEPENING TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE TROUGH WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT...AND THIS WILL
HELP TO INITIATE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. IN FACT...THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT EVEN SOME THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE. WILL
LEAVE OUT A MENTION FOR NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME GRAUPEL WITHIN THE MOST
INTENSE UPDRAFTS.

CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS EAST...WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO FINISH AS LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES COOL OFF ENOUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES LATER THIS EVENING...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND LOWS
GETTING DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SIMILAR ENOUGH WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES
THAT CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED. WE
ARE GENERALLY LOOKING AT A PROGRESSIVE...QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN WITH A
FEW...RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TO DEAL WITH
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE
FIRST SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS FIRST SYSTEM SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

MODELS AGREE ON TIMING ANOTHER DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUE...TUE NIGHT BUT THE ECMWF ADVERTISES A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY AT THE SFC. AS A RESULT...THE ECMWF BRINGS A
MOISTURE STARVED SFC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY
AND JUST TO OUR SOUTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WEAKER MID/UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT OF THE GFS...THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS NORTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE GFS IS ALSO
STRONGER WITH RETURN FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.
CONSEQUENTLY THE GFS SOLUTION HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL OF SOME
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MID TERM WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY. FOR
NOW LEANED TOWARDS CONSENSUS...WHICH IS DRY.

FROM THERE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH THE GFS
SWINGING A THIRD MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE
END OF THE EXTENDED. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS A WEAKER SHORTWAVE THAT
SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY DIGGING A
MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. INTERESTINGLY...BOTH
MODELS STILL BRING A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT...WITH SIMILAR SFC
FEATURES AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH AT THE END OF
FORECAST WINDOW.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...OUR MOST SIGNIFICANT SUBJECT MATTER
CONTINUES TO BE THE COLD WEATHER AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED. WE
ARE EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE TEENS SUNDAY MORNING.
VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND DEW POINTS AT THE SFC IN
THE SINGLE DIGIT TO TEEN RANGE WILL MAKE FOR VERY GOOD RADIATIVE
COOLING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...SLIGHTLY EAST OF OUR AREA WILL KEEP OUR WINDS LIGHT
AT BEST. SO WE CAN EXPECT A HARD FREEZE ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DID BRING TEMPS UP JUST
SLIGHTLY IN OUR WESTERN MOST ZONES...INTO THE LOWER 20S...AS THERE
MAY BE A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THOSE
AREAS. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL LEVELS FAIRLY QUICKLY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR NEXT WEEKEND AS H850
TEMPS DROP BACK DOWN AROUND -10C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 820 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

IFR/MVFR CEILINGS IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY RAISE UP TO VFR
THROUGH THE MID AND LATE MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY HANG ON THROUGH THE DAY DESPITE THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL BRING THE THREAT OF A FEW MORE
SHOWERS TO THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS
WILL REMAIN AT 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH THE MORE
INTENSE SHOWERS THAT PASS OVER A GIVEN LOCATION.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN


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