Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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857
FXUS63 KJKL 160946
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
446 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 310 AM EST FRI FEB 16 2018

The near term period will be quite active, as a series of weather
systems brings periods of rain, and a bit of snow, to eastern
Kentucky today and into the weekend. Numerous light to moderate
rain showers will be moving across the area through the end of the
day today, as a cold front moves across the region. The rain will
be most widespread through out the morning, and will quickly taper
off this afternoon. The rain should be out of eastern Kentucky by
early tonight. Colder air will spill into the area tonight behind
the departed cold front. We can expect a break from precipitation
tonight, as a weak area of high pressure moves quickly across the
region. A second bout of precipitation is then expected to affect
the area during the day on Saturday. The leading edge of this
precipitation should begin moving into eastern Kentucky from the
south or southwest early Saturday morning, in advance of an area
of low pressure that will be moving across the Tennessee valley.
Some snow, or a rain snow mix, will be possible on the northern
edge of the advancing precipitation, as it moves into colder air
Saturday morning. The precipitation should transition to all rain
by early Saturday afternoon. Rainfall accumulations for both
systems combined should average around an inch for most locations.
Localized flooding will be possible today and again tomorrow, as
any rain we see will be falling on already saturated ground.

Temperatures are expected to be well above normal again today,
with highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s forecast for most
locations. Overnight lows will be cooler than we have seen the
past two nights, but still a bit above normal. Low temperatures
tonight and early Saturday morning should fall into the upper 20s
in the far north and the low to mid 30s on average south of the
I-64 corridor.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 446 AM EST FRI FEB 16 2018

A southern stream of the upper level flow will persist from the
eastern Pacific west of Mexico across the southeast CONUS.
Impulses in the flow will bring additional incursions of deep
moisture northward, interacting with northern stream flow. One of
these episode will be on the way out on Saturday night, with any
lingering precip ending, and surface high pressure building in
from the west and then passing over late Saturday night and
Sunday with mainly dry weather. The next surge of moisture will
move through Sunday night and Monday, coinciding with an
amplifying upper level pattern with a western CONUS trough and a
summer-like ridge off the southeast coast. As the ridge builds,
moisture/precip should become concentrated to our north and west
along a frontal boundary associated with the trough, and we will
emerge into an unseasonably warm air mass until mid week. A piece
of the trough will move east and flatten the ridge, allowing the
surface boundary to move southeast through our area as a cold
front with another round of wet weather. Models still need to come
into better agreement on timing of the front and precip. At this
time the forecast is a broadbrushed picture of this on Wednesday
and Wednesday night. Model forecast soundings show weak
instability developing along the front at midweek, and a slight
chance of thunder has been included.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST FRI FEB 16 2018

Strong southwest flow continues to keep the potential for wind
gusts to around 20 KTs tonight and this will be the primary
aviation concern to start the TAF period. A cold front will push
southeast tonight and bring the potential for showers overnight
into early Friday. This will also lead to lowering CIGs into IFR
range or lower through the night and at least MVFR VIS. This front
will slowly push southeast Friday, and winds will begin to shift
from southwest to northwest and begin to wane through the day on
Friday.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...AR



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