Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KJKL 151735
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
135 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE MADE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO CANCEL THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR FOUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. THE ZONE
FORECAST TEXT AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCTS WERE ALSO
UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS. THE FORECAST GRIDS OVERALL WERE STILL IN
GOOD SHAPE SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE THERE. ONE MINOR CHANGE THAT
WAS MADE WAS TO ADD THE POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES AND SPRINKLES THROUGH
19 OR 20Z TODAY. UPSTREAM OBS AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A FLURRIES AND
SPRINKLES AT THE SURFACE AND A PLUME OF MOISTURE STREAMING OFF THE
SOUTHERN END OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS IS WHAT PROMPTED INCLUSION OF
FLURRIES AND SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AREAS OF THE FORECAST
AREA NOT BEING AFFECTED BY SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
BE UPDATING THE FREEZE WARNING PRODUCT IN THE NEXT 15 OR 20 MINUTES
AS WELL BEFORE BEGINNING WORK ON THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE OUT DATED MORNING WORDING AND TO
UPDATE THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION PROGRESSION IN THE ZONE FORECAST
TEXT PRODUCT. OVERALL THE FORECAST WAS ACTUALLY STILL IN PRETTY GOOD
SHAPE. THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IN THE GRIDS HAS BEEN SPOT ON.
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WERE ALSO IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY SOME MINOR
TWEAKS NEEDED. WILL NEED TO ISSUE ANOTHER UPDATE BEFORE 1 PM TO
HOPEFULLY EXPIRE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. BASED ON THE LATEST
TRENDS OBSERVED IN RADAR IMAGERY...THE IMPACTFUL SNOW SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE AREA AND OR TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN SNOW MIX BY THEN. THE
FREEZE WARNING PRODUCT IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 2 PM...SO WILL GO AHEAD
AND UPDATE THAT PRODUCT AS WELL WITH THE 1 PM FORECAST UPDATE. WILL
BE WORKING ON THE TAF IN THE MEANTIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1013 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

MADE SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MORE SNOW THAN RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING
ACROSS THE AREA SO FAR THIS MORNING...LEADING TO SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND THE AREA. THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA CAN EXPECT GENERALLY A DUSTING OF SNOW...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS SEEING MAYBE UP TO AN INCH ON GRASSY AREAS. AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM MOREHEAD TO CAMPTON TO LONDON COULD SEE AROUND
HALF INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION THROUGH NOON TODAY. WE HAVE RECEIVED
ABOUT HALF AN INCH AT THE WEATHER OFFICE SO FAR TODAY. THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG THE VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS COULD STILL
RECEIVE UP TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 2000 FEET. ALSO REMOVED THE
PRE FIRST PERIOD FROM THE ZONE TEXT PRODUCT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 621 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

COLD FRONT HAS JUST CLEARED THE THE LAST OF SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY WITH
ALL LOCATIONS NOW SEEING TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY FALLING. BASED ON THE
SPEED OF TEMPERATURE FALL...A FEW LOCATIONS COULD DROP UNDER FREEZING
BEFORE DAYBREAK...WITH A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW POSSIBLE ON GRASSY
AND ELEVATED SURFACES. HOWEVER...ROAD TEMPERATURES REMAIN PLENTY WARM
TO PREVENT MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON THE MORNING DRIVE. OVERALL...FORECAST
IS IN REASONABLE SHAPE...WILL FINE TUNE THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS/WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM JUST EAST OF HUNTINGTON...TO JUST EAST OF
JACKSON...TO NEAR MIDDLESBORO THIS MORNING. PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH THE CONVERGENCE
WITH THE PASSING FRONT. DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REMAIN BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...SUPPORTING PRECIPITATION THROUGH
LATE MORNING. AS WE HEAD TOWARDS MIDDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST. STILL
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW FOR MOST AREAS AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING WELL UNDER FREEZING
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET IN THE SOUTHEAST...THIS MAY
ALLOW FOR BETTER ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL FOR THESE AREAS. BASED ON
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION...IT LOOKS LIKE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHER RIDGE TOPS. WHILE LITTLE IMPACT IS
ANTICIPATED...SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES COULD OCCUR. THUS...PLAN TO
ISSUE AN ELEVATION BASED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE COUNTIES
BORDERING VIRGINIA THIS MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDDAY AS TEMPERATURES HOLD STEADY
OR CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE 30S OR 20S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
CLOUDS WILL HOLD TOUGH THROUGH THE DAY GIVEN THE UPSLOPE
CONDITIONS...BUT DRY AIR SHOULD OVERWHELM THE CLOUDS LATE IN THE
DAY...WITH CLOUDS ON A GENERAL DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
THIS WILL SET UP A RECORD COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED WELL INTO THE
20S AND THE COLDER VALLEYS FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS. THIS
WARRANTS THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING. A BIG DIURNAL SWING IN
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS WE START OFF COLD...BUT SHOULD
RECOVER WELL INTO THE 50S OR LOWER 60S BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS BIG
DIURNAL CURVE WILL FEATURE SOME VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY
LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

MODELS HAVE STARTED TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS COMPARED TO THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. DIFFERENCES STILL ARISE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
THE OVERALL PATTERNS ARE NOT DISSIMILAR...AND A COMPROMISE/BLEND WILL
BE USED.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...A SURFACE RIDGE JUST TO OUR EAST WILL BE
OUR DOMINANT FEATURE...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. OUR AIR MASS WILL STILL BE VERY
DRY...AND SUBSTANTIAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES SHOULD RESULT. WILL
EXPECT FROST IN MOST LOCATIONS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND POSSIBLY
IN THE COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BY FRIDAY
MORNING WE SHOULD BE SEEING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE
WEST...WHICH COULD CUT INTO COOLING AND FROST POTENTIAL.

THOSE CLOUDS WILL BE DUE TO A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT HEADING IN FROM THE WEST. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ONLY LIGHT PRECIP AT MOST WITH THIS SYSTEM FROM
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...AND HAVE ONLY USED 20-30 PERCENT POPS IN
ANY GIVEN FORECAST PERIOD. THIS MOVES OUT TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. ANY INTRUSION OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE
WEAK...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS EXPECTED.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD BRING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND DRY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. DETAILS STILL LOOK MURKY...ESPECIALLY AT THE SURFACE.
HOWEVER...WITH BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOWING A SYSTEM... HAVE
USED POPS RISING TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SJS FOR THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO BEFORE FINALLY EXITING THE AREA. JKL AND LOZ COULD SEE SOME
FLURRIES AND SPRINKLES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT NOTHING
THAT SHOULD CREATE ANY REAL ISSUES FOR AVIATORS. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AS SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THAT AREA AND LOW
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO PERSIST. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AT
ALL FOUR TAF SITES BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR BY BETWEEN 1 AND 3Z TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...AR






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.