Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 070645 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
145 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. SOME OF THE MORE SHELTERED
VALLEYS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID 20S...SO DID ALLOW FOR A FEW
SITES TO MAKE IT CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES BY DAWN. UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1024 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

SKIES HAVE CLEARED OFF OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH VALLEYS ALREADY
INTO THE UPPER 20S. WILL PUSH LOWS DOWN A FEW MORE DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHILE KEEPING SKIES CLEAR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATE THIS EVENING OUTSIDE OF FRESHENING UP THE
HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

MSAS WOULD SUGGEST SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CONTINUING TO NOSE IN
FROM THE TN VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
KEEP THE REGION DRY FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THAT SAID
WE CONTINUE TO SEE SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. NOW SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS WOULD
SUGGEST THE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOUR. THIS WILL LEAVE THE EASTERN KY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. NOW HAVING SAID THAT...UNDER BROAD SURFACE HIGH MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE ABLE TO DECOUPLE AND THIS WILL LEAD TO DECENT
RIDGE VALLEY SPLITS. OVERALL WE ALREADY HAD THIS THOUGHT SO ONLY
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

FOR SUNDAY WE WILL SEE ANOTHER NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL DAY FOR TEMPS
WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 50S. MOST SPOTS WILL SEE A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUD LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF
IMPENDING DISTURBANCE. RIGHT NOW NOT THINKING THIS WILL KILL
TEMPS MUCH DUE TO THE LATER ONSET AND SW FLOW. THE BIGGEST WEATHER
THREAT IN THE PERIOD WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT DIVES SE ON SUNDAY
NIGHT OUT OF THE MIDWEST. OVERALL TRIED TO BETTER TIME OUT THIS
SYSTEM AND RIGHT NOW STUCK WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG AND NEAR THE
BOUNDARY. THERE STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE
CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN...MIX IF RAIN/SNOW...AND SNOW. RIGHT NOW
BASED ON SOUNDINGS AND POTENTIAL FOR WET BULBING AT SOME POINT
WILL KEEP THE ONSET OF THIS RAIN BEFORE SEEING A TRANSITION TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AROUND DAWN MONDAY. LOOKING AT LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ONSET FOR MOST JUST GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT
WARMER GROUND TEMPS AND MIXING POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

A VERY LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH A CLOSED LOW DESCENDING TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY AS IT OPENS UP. LARGE AND DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ITS COLD
FRONT WILL BE DEPARTING TO OUR EAST...WITH THE LAST OF THE
FRONTAL PRECIP EXITING OUR AREA AS THE PERIOD STARTS.
HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES...ADDITIONAL PRECIP
SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE DEEP...MOIST...UPSLOPE...COLD AIR ADVECTION.
IT COULD BE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW AT FIRST ON MONDAY...BUT
WOULD GO OVER TO ALL SNOW BY LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING. THE
SNOW WILL BE PERSISTENT... ESPECIALLY IN OUR NE COUNTIES. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY BEFORE MOST OF THE SNOW WINDS DOWN BY
WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS STILL NOT GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT/CONSISTENCY LATE IN THE
WEEK. DISTURBANCES IN RAPID FLOW ALOFT ARE NOT TIMED WELL...AND
VARIATION EXISTS IN TEMPERATURES AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. LATEST
12Z ECMWF SHOWS A POTENTIAL FOR A VERY COLD AIR MASS BY THE
WEEKEND. HAVE USED A MODEL BLEND OF RECENT RUNS...WHICH TEMPERS
THE COLD SOMEWHAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

DWINDLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...HOWEVER EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE AND LOWER TOWARDS THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN



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