Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 021300
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
900 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

EARLY MORNING FOG IS LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. TO OUR
NORTH...SHOWERS HAVE FORMED AND ARE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. SO HAVE
KEPT WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE PICKS UP
ON THIS TREND. OTHERWISE...FRESHENED UP THE T/TD GRIDS AND SENT
UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

WITH FOG MENTIONED IN THE ZONES...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE UPLOADED THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT. THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO NDFD
AND THE WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY CONTINUE TO FEATURE
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THROUGH TODAY AND
THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED WITH
EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER A BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK FLOW
WITH LITTLE SUPPORT OVER EAST KENTUCKY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN A DIURNAL TREND TO ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY AND
THURSDAY.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DOES TRACK ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KY
TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR A BETTER
CHANCE...THOUGH NOT MUCH...OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE
INDICATED THIS IN THE ZONES AS THE HI RES MODELS DO HINT AT
THIS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
EAST. THE MORE PREVALENT CHANCE LIES ON THURSDAY. STILL
THOUGH...NOTHING MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE. OTHERWISE...THE DAYS
WILL BE HIGHLIGHT BY MORNING FOG AND AFTERNOON ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH THOSE HIGHS RUNNING NEARLY 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...
BUT EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL PIVOT AROUND THE REGION. WHILE
THE BULK OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY...A SMALL THREAT FOR AN AFTERNOON
SHOWER OR STORM WILL EXIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AERIAL
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT...BUT OPTED TO KEEP
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY SO THEY SHOW UP IN THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...CONSIDERING THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND 850 MB TEMPS
PROGGED TO REACH AROUND 20C...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE
80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

AGAIN TO START THE TAF PERIOD...MVFR AND IFR FOG STARTS OVER THE
TAF SITES. WILL MENTION THIS FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE
PERIOD BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF BY 14Z. WINDS WILL STILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. A 4 KFT SCATTERED CU
LAYER IS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SKIES CLEAR UP AGAIN
TONIGHT. FOG WILL THEN BE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT TOWARDS DAWN.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER



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