Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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844 FXUS63 KJKL 242010 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 310 PM EST Fri Nov 24 2017 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 309 PM EST FRI NOV 24 2017 It was a cold start to the day with morning temperatures in the valleys in the lower to middle 20s. Under abundant sunshine temperatures have warmed into the lower 60s in much of the area this afternoon. With dewpoints in the 20s in the north and east, temperatures will fall quickly in the valleys this evening. A ridge valley temperature difference will develop especially in the east, and this is depicted in the forecast grids with lows in the middle 30s in the eastern valleys and in the middle 40s on the ridges. It is possible this may not be enough of a ridge valley difference and temperatures may need to be further adjusted this evening. Clouds will increase late tonight in advance of a cold front. The front will make its way across the area on Saturday. We will continue with the previous forecast thinking and keep the sprinkle threat in the forecast late tonight and Saturday. After the frontal passage on Saturday colder air will work its way back into the area, though we`ll only receive a glancing blow with the main cold air staying off to our north and northeast. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 309 PM EST FRI NOV 24 2017 Models are in good agreement until the final 48 hours or so of the extended. This leads to considerable uncertainty with the mid to late week storm system we have been watching over the last several runs. Overall the pattern still looks amplified and progressive. But model solutions have lacked even a hint of consistency with the timing, strength, and evolution of troughs and short waves that will move into the lower 48 by early next week. A center of low pressure just off the west coast splits into northern and southern stream components. An initial southern stream short wave tracks across the southern CONUS but dampens by the time it reaches the Ohio Valley in response to a second stronger trough riding eastward a bit further upstream. The 12Z GFS and ECMWF have switched roles at this point as the slower GFS shows energy digging further south than the now faster and less amplified ECMWF. A bit more consistent Canadian seems to again prefer the middle of the road with respect to timing of these features across the nation. For now best bet is to stay with the model blends until more consistent trends begin to show up in the solutions. With the weakening of the initial short wave moving into the region, sensible weather features a more definitive trend towards warmer than normal temperatures, climbing into the 60s by mid week. For now our weather continues to look dry until at least the latter part of the week where blends ramp best PoPs up Thursday into Thursday night. Made the typical minor adjustments to the temperature grids each night anticipating a small to moderate ridge-valley split during those times when high pressure is centered more directly over our forecast area. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1235 PM EST FRI NOV 24 2017 VFR conditions will prevail through the entire forecast period. Some high clouds will drift across the area today, and mid level clouds will increase tonight in advance of a cold front. Ceilings on Saturday are expected to lower, but remain in the 5K to 10K feet range. The front may also bring a few sprinkles, but nothing of significance. Winds ahead of the front will be south to southwest, and then shift to the west Saturday afternoon as the front moves through. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SBH LONG TERM...RAY AVIATION...SBH

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