Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KJKL 011235 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 835 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 835 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014 VISIBILITY HAS DROPPED TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS RECENTLY AT IOB AND SYM. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED HIGHLIGHTING THE FOG OVER THE NORTHEASTERN BLUEGRASS AND GATEWAY REGION. DESPITE VERY LOW VSBY AT JKL AND PBX...FOG IS NOT THAT DENSE IN THE VALLEYS SO DID NOT INCLUDE SOUTHEAST KY IN THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. KJKL VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATES CLOUDS ARE ABOUT 10K FT THICK...SO FOG/LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY TAKE A WHILE TO DISSIPATE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014 STRATUS HAS CONTINUED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AND IS JUST ABOUT TO LONDON/SOMERSET. ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT OVERCAST SKIES THIS MORNING. BASED ON YESTERDAYS TRENDS...IT MAY TAKE AWHILE TO BREAK THROUGH THE STRATUS THIS MORNING AND GET INTO THE SUNSHINE. FOR THIS REASON...TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF ON A SLOW RISE THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY REACH THE EXPECTED HIGHS AS CLOUDS BREAK UP BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...STRATUS YESTERDAY DIDN`T LIFT OR BURN OFF UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS...EXPECT A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER TO START THE DAY. ALSO...DEALING WITH SOME DENSE FOG ON THE RIDGES THIS MORNING. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LESSEN THE FOG THREAT IN THE VALLEYS AND PUT MORE ONTO THE RIDGES. ALL CHANGES HAVE BEEN INCORPORATED INTO THE CURRENT FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014 STRATUS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING BEHIND A WASHED OUT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH HAS STALLED OVER THE AREA. LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS ADVECTING THESE CLOUDS SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS WILL CREATE A NORTH TO SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT THIS MORNING WITH THE AREAS UNDERNEATH THE CLOUD COVER STAYING MILDER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE SOUTH. ANY CLOUD COVER WILL ERODE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE AS THESE CLOUDS ARE VERY SHALLOW WITH NO DEPTH. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER FANTASTIC FALL DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AGAIN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE 50S...ONLY THIS TIME...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS PASSING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL YIELD BETTER FOG POTENTIAL IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT. TOMORROW...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO WARM AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL YIELD THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS CLIMBING WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. SKIES WILL TURN PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014 THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEEP FULL LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE DIFFERENCE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS IS A TENDENCY TOWARD A MORE EXTREME SOLUTION WITH THE CORE OF THE TROUGH/S ENERGY DIVING FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. NOW THAT THE OTHER MODELS HAVE MOVED TOWARD THIS SCENARIO...THEREBY JOINING THE ECMWF...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THIS SETUP. THE INITIAL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH/S ARRIVAL INTO THE AREA WILL SWEEP THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY OTHER BATCHES OF MID LEVEL ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY INTO SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS STILL THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND FURTHEST SOUTH MODEL WITH THIS TRAILING ENERGY THROUGH THE WEEKEND... BUT GIVEN THE TREND HAVE FAVORED ITS FORECAST. THE LARGE TROUGH THEN SITS IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK WITH HEIGHTS RELAXING A BIT. THE LATEST ECMWF IS MORE INSISTENT ABOUT A RESURGENCE OF THIS TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH KENTUCKY AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WHILE THE PATTERN OF THE GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY FLATTER THROUGH TUESDAY. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WILL PREFER THE ECMWF FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED AND THEN A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE LATTER PORTION...TEMPERING THE EURO/S ENTHUSIASM SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ONE LAST MILD NIGHT AND SEASONABLE DAY TO START THE EXTENDED AS A COLD FRONT BARRELS INTO THE STATE. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A HEALTHY GRADIENT WITH IT KEEPING THE WINDS UP DURING THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALSO LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THE RIDGES. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AND BE A CONCERN THAT NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. DO EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT POST FRONTAL AS SURGES OF COLDER AIR MOVE INTO EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. THIS FRONT AND SOME LINGERING CLOUDS BENEATH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH/S CORE WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY DAY ON SATURDAY AND A VERY COLD NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER AND HOW QUICKLY THE WINDS CAN DROP OFF...SOME PATCHY FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY SUNDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES SETTLE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY DAWN. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER BRIEF PUSH OF COOL TEMPERATURES. THE FRONT DOES NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS SOUTH INTO TUESDAY AND COULD LINGER A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA TO CLOSE OUT THE EXTENDED. THE CR GRID LOAD AGAIN PROVED TO BE A GOOD START TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS...THOUGH AGAIN DID ADJUST THE POPS A TAD TOWARD THE LATEST EURO SOLUTION EARLY. ALSO TWEAKED THE LOW TEMPERATURE GRIDS A BIT EACH NIGHT TO REFLECT AT LEAST SOME MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014 A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT A SHALLOW STRATUS DECK INTO MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. A SLIGHT PROGRESSION SOUTHWARD SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH LIFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED. CIGS HAVE LOWER ENOUGH TO YIELD DENSE FOG ON THE RIDGES...IMPACTING RIDGETOP AIRPORTS SUCH AS KJKL AND KSJS. GIVEN MODELS POOR HANDLING OF THE STRATUS...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON HOW LONG IT WILL PERSIST INTO THE MORNING OR AFTERNOON. SAFE TO SAY...IT MAY TAKE AT LEAST UNTIL MID MORNING BEFORE WE SEE CONDITIONS GO BACK TO VFR AND COULD PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD STILL SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG...BUT SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED THAN LAST NIGHT GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS. AFTER THE STRATUS BURNS OFF... THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...ABE SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...KAS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.