Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 312014 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 414 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014 500MB LOW IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH ALL MODELS AGREEING ON IT/S MOVEMENT INTO CENTRAL KY AROUND 0Z THIS EVENING...AND EXITING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT HAS JUST SWEPT EAST OF THE STATE...PULLING AN AREA OF PREFRONTAL RAIN OUT OF THE CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE WILL BE A SHORT GAP IN THE PRECIP...AS IS CURRENTLY INDICATED BY THE RADAR...BEFORE THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE CLOSED LOW BRINGS YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO DROP AROUND OR JUST BELOW FREEZING BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z TONIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXPECTED BORDERLINE FREEZING TEMPS...AND THE ONGOING RAIN AND SNOW POTENTIAL...DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE FREEZE ADVISORY. IT WILL BE HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE ANY FROST FORM OVERNIGHT WITH THESE CONDITIONS. WITH TEMPS DROPPING NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING...STILL EXPECTING RAIN TO SWITCH TO SNOW OVERNIGHT...AND THEN TRANSITIONING BACK TO RAIN DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...AND AREAS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING FIRST...SO HAVE SNOW DEVELOPING IN THESE LOCATIONS AS EARLY AS 0Z...WITH MOST OF THE REGION TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW BETWEEN 06 AND 09Z. SEVERAL THINGS HAVE CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT. NEW MODEL RUNS BROUGHT IN A STRONGER AREA OF OMEGA NEAR 12Z THIS MORNING...SIGNIFYING THE POSSIBILITY FOR A STRONGER BAND TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AROUND THIS TIME. ALSO...THE WWD IMAGE SEEMED TO BE CATCHING ON TO THIS TREND...AND WAS PLACING MORE WIDESPREAD ONE INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...AND INTO LMK AND ILN/S AREA. ENDED UP INCREASING QPF SLIGHTLY DURING THE 06 TO 12Z TIME FRAME...AND ALSO UPPED THE SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY FROM A DUSTING TO AROUND 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH. DESPITE THIS...STILL EXPECT WHAT SNOW THAT DOES FALL TO MOST LIKELY MELT FAIRLY QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE HIGHER AMOUNTS...SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN EVEN IN CENTRAL KY /INCLUDING HERE AT KJKL/ COULD SEE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. GIVEN THAT THIS IS THE FIRST SNOWFALL OF THE YEAR...AND MANY OF THESE RIDGES ARE POPULATED...AND THAT IT IS THE FIRST OF THE MONTH...DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND ADD ON TO THE ONGOING ADVISORY...EXTENDING IT AS FAR WEST AS JKL. SNOW WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION BACK TO RAIN THROUGH MID MORNING TOMORROW...BEFORE THE ENTIRE SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS TO THE SE. DRY AIR WILL SLOWLY WORK IN...WITH POPS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN SUCH...A STRONG BLAST OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO INTERJECT INTO THE REGION. DESPITE ONGOING CLOUD COVER INSULATION...CAA WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME...AND TEMPS SHOULD DROP WELL BELOW FREEZING. WHAT PRECIP IS LINGERING IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION WILL LIKELY SWITCH BACK TO A MIXTURE OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN /WHICH SHOULD HAVE VERY LITTLE IMPACTS/...DRIZZLE...FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND SNOW. WILL KEEP THE FREEZE WATCH OUT FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT IMPACTS OF THE WEATHER SHOULD NOT REQUIRE ANY FURTHER HEADLINES. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014 AS THE DYNAMIC UL SYSTEM WORKS ITS WAY UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS IS LEFT IN ITS WAKE. SUNDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH MID-WEEK. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL HELP USHER IN WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT THIS IS WHERE THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS...MAINLY WITH THE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS THE FRONTAL PRECIP PUSHING THROUGH OUR CWA BETWEEN 12Z WED AND 00Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE 06Z GFS IS SLOWER WITH THE FRONTS MVMT...AND SHOWS PRECIP LINGERING FROM 18Z WEDNESDAY ALL THE WAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. SO UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...DECIDED TO BE FAIRLY MODEST WITH THE POPS AND PRECIP AMOUNTS. QUIET WEATHER WILL END THE WORK WEEK AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014 CLOUDS HAVE SHOWN A LOWERING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...NOW HOVERING AROUND THE 500 TO 700 FT IFR RANGE. GIVEN THE LATEST DATA...EXPECT THESE IFR CIGS TO STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD...PERHAPS FLUCTUATING SLIGHTLY UP AND SLIGHTLY DOWN INTO LIFR THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THE FIRST BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL RAIN IS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD AND EXITING THE CWA. KSJS AND KJKL CAN EXPECT TO SEE SCT SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BEFORE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIP OCCURS. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...AS THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP IS CURRENTLY EXPANDING ACROSS CENTRAL KY. THIS WILL BE OUR MAIN WEATHER SYSTEM AS WE HEAD INTO THE NIGHT. EXPECT THIS RAIN TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND AS IT MOVES OVER EASTERN KY. THEN AS TEMPS DROP OVERNIGHT...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW THROUGH SAT MORNING...BEFORE MAKING THE TRANSITION BACK TO RAIN AND COMING TO AN END AFTER THE TAF PERIOD. TRIED TO BEST REFLECT THE CHANGE- OVER TIMES FROM RAIN TO SNOW IN THE TAFS...THOUGH SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE AS WE SEE HOW THE TEMPERATURES REACT AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE TAF SITES THAT ARE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WNW WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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FREEZE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ088-118. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ085>087-109-110-112-113-115>117-120.
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&& $$ SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...JMW

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