Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 210548 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 148 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 148 AM EDT THU SEP 21 2017 The forecast remains on track. Made some minor temperature adjustments based on the rate of cooling thus far across the area. The river valley fog is expanding more so now, and this will continue through dawn. UPDATE Issued at 1041 PM EDT WED SEP 20 2017 Forecast is on track for a quiet but potentially foggy night ahead. Airport obs have not shown any visibility restrictions below 7 miles yet. However, many obs are at saturation, and the first indications of valley fog are starting to show up on the RGB microphysics satellite channel. The fog will continue to expand during the night.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 350 PM EDT WED SEP 20 2017 Current radar mosaic is showing isolated showers and thunderstorms across the region with slightly better coverage across central portions of the Commonwealth. Expect this activity will continue for a few more hours before waning around sunset. Models are in good agreement through the short term. Additional short wave energy will drop down into the area tomorrow on the south side of a developing mid/upper level ridge. This ridge will nose its way northeastward through the period, expanding from the southern plains into the mid Mississippi Valley overnight, and then into the Great Lakes by end of the day Thursday. Sensible weather will see another night with fog. However, while the fog will be locally dense in places expectations are that the overall coverage and intensity should not be quite as bad as last night. With short wave energy riding along the southeastern edge of the ridge Thursday, can not rule out another day of isolated convection across the area tomorrow, similar to the last couple of afternoons. Temperatures will continue to run about 5 degrees above normal through the period. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 328 PM EDT WED SEP 20 2017 The period will be controlled by upper level ridging moving across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and surface high nosing south from time to time. This well established ridge will keep the tropical systems well away from the Ohio Valley. The only issue will be the potential for mainly valley fog and slight ridge valley temperature splits in the morning. However, towards the end of the long term period we do see signs of the eastern lower 48 ridge breaking down, and this will allow for slightly cooler afternoon temperatures (closer to average for this time of year) and lowering heights. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) ISSUED AT 148 AM EDT THU SEP 21 2017 LIFR or worse fog will develop across mainly the river valleys through dawn. This will hit hardest at SYM, SME and LOZ, with SJS and JKL likely seeing more temporary lower restrictions between 10 and 12z. The fog will burn off between 12 and 14z, with scattered cumulus forming in the 3 to 5k feet agl range during the day. A few showers may dot the area, but these look too isolated to include any mention for now. Winds will be light and variable through the period.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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