Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 300753 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 353 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014 THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE ORIENTED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR IS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...WITH THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE LOW 50S. ALOFT...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS... STEMMING FROM A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATING NEAR HUDSON BAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...ALLOWING FOR A THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED POPS AS WE HEAT UP MORE AT THE SURFACE TODAY...WHILE COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH THE DEEPER VALLEYS LIKELY DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOW 50S ONCE AGAIN. RIDGES WILL BE A BIT MILDER...WINDING UP IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE MILDER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 80S. A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL THREATEN FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY WITH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION...HOWEVER MOST OF THIS LOOKS TO STAY ON THE TENNESSEE SIDE...AND WILL STICK WITH DRY WEATHER FOR NOW. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014 LITTLE HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. AMPLIFIED TROUGHING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE BLOCKED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH STRONG RIDGING SITTING OVER THE SW CONUS AND OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. BY FRIDAY...EASTERN KY WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE TROUGH...PUTTING MUCH OF THE APPALACHIAN REGION IN SW FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THOUGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...THIS FLOW OF WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH WILL PULL TEMPS BACK UP SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS DAYS...INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT WILL ALSO CAUSE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS WELL. AS FOR THE PRECIP CONCERNS...THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL KEEP A COLD FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE GULF AND EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS...IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE DEEP SW-TO-NE FLOW...WILL MAKE THIS REGION PRIME FOR ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE PREDOMINATELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION PULLING INTO KY TO SOME EXTENT EACH DAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. USED THE LATEST NAM12 AND GFS40 SOUNDINGS TO DETERMINE THE LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDER EACH DAY...AS IS REFLECTED IN THE WX FORECAST. THEN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BEGIN SINKING SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL WORK TO INCREASE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND...AS A RESULT...DAMPEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY ALONG THE TN AND VA BORDER...COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD THEN FADE ALL TOGETHER FROM THE FORECAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. ON THE FLIP SIDE...INCREASING HEIGHTS ALSO WILL DIRECTLY CORRELATE TO INCREASING TEMPS. EXPECT MORE SEASONABLE MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY FOR HIGHS.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO SOME MVFR FOG...ALTHOUGH EXPECT THAT ANY IFR OR WORSE FOG TO BE CONSTRICTED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 13Z...WITH SCATTERED STRATOCU IN THE 4 TO 6K FEET AGL RANGE DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. ANY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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