Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 290245 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1045 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 1045 PM EDT FRI JUL 28 2017 A few lingering showers are pushing south across southeast Kentucky and based on the timing, should push on south by 1 or 2 am. Still some question as to how much cloud cover redevelops overnight, but given the low level flow out of the northeast, would expect some expansion in the low level stratus as we head through the second half of the night. Skies will likely stay clear across the bluegrass region. UPDATE Issued at 737 PM EDT FRI JUL 28 2017 With cold front now exiting south of Kentucky, have dropped the flash flood watch and removed thunder from the forecast. A few widely isolated showers may impact far east/southeast Kentucky over the next few hours, but probably nothing more than a sprinkle in reality. Low level north/northeast flow will take hold overnight and that should support in stratus development/expansion as we head through the overnight hours. Still some question as to how far back to the northwest low clouds develop, and bluegrass counties could stay mostly clear tonight. With the stratus and modest surface winds, fog should not become a problem tonight. Forecast update has been saved and sent. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 440 PM EDT FRI JUL 28 2017 A cold front was bisecting the area from southwest to northeast late this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms were occurring generally near and ahead of the front. They were efficient, slow moving heavy rainers. There has been some limited training. Where significant rain has already fallen, it`s been enough to start causing some problems. The Flash Flood Watch has been left in place, and already covers where the heaviest rain has occurred in the last day. The front will be exiting into VA this evening, taking significant precip with it. A shortwave trough/small closed low rotating through the large scale eastern CONUS trough is expected to pass to our east on Saturday. It could still result in some showers before our low level moisture gets scoured out, especially in our far eastern and southeastern counties, and a 20% POP has been carried into the day Saturday there. By Saturday night, surface high pressure building southward toward the Ohio Valley will bring drier air and clearing skies, setting us up for a nice finish to the weekend. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 440 PM EDT FRI JUL 28 2017 Models are in good agreement through the extended. In general we remain under the influence of northwest flow and a fairly stagnant pattern through the period with a mean eastern CONUS trough and western ridge. Energy will be dropping into the Great Lakes region by Dy6, late Wednesday before another short wave impulse digs further south into the Ohio Valley by late Thursday or Friday. At the surface high pressure will settle down across the region, gradually shifting to our east by Wednesday. A cold frontal boundary will approach the Ohio Valley by late Thursday and/or Friday. For sensible weather, surface high pressure will bring an extended period of dry weather to the area, likely lasting the first 4 days of the extended window. The threat of rain will increase towards the end of the week as a cold frontal system approaches from the northwest. While temperatures will be moderating through the week, into the mid 80s by Tue/Wed afternoon, dew points will remain relatively low through Wednesday keeping our weather a bit more pleasant than what we have become accustomed to. Temperatures cool back down a little by week`s end, due more to an increase in cloud cover and the chance of rain. Taking a peak at our weather just beyond the extended window, both the 0Z and 12Z ECMWF suggest another shot at some cool, dry weather for the following weekend. Time will tell. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) ISSUED AT 737 PM EDT FRI JUL 28 2017 Low level moisture will remain in place through tonight behind a departing cold front. This will allow for the development of some LIFR/IFR stratus. KSYM may be just enough to the northwest to stay out of the low clouds tonight, but they will likely be very close. Areas farther south and east will likely remain trapped in the low clouds through Saturday morning before returning to VFR sometime Saturday afternoon. North to northeast winds will continue through the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...RAY AVIATION...KAS

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