Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 190820 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 320 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 320 AM EST MON FEB 19 2018 07z sfc analysis shows a developing warm front lifting through Kentucky. With this, a lead band of showers are sliding east through eastern Kentucky. Lighter and more spotty showers follow to the west. Plenty of clouds accompany the boundary and this, along with some stirring of the sfc winds, have cleared out the worst of the ridge to valley temperature differences. As such, readings now vary across the JKL CWA from the low 40s in the valleys with low 50s seen on the ridges. Dewpoints have come up, as well and now range from the upper 30s in the north to the low 50s coming into the southwest portions of the Cumberland Valley. Winds are generally from the south to southwest at 5 to 10 mph, though near calm in the valleys and somewhat higher on the ridges. In fact, just off the sfc winds are much stronger from the southwest at 40 to 50 mph as seen in the JKL radar`s VWP. The models are in excellent agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast as they all depict a burgeoning ridge through the southeast section of the nation today through Tuesday. Rising heights over Kentucky will send the stream of weak mid level energy waves to the north of the area this morning with a much less active flow of southwest winds over the state after 12z this morning. Given the model sameness will favor a blend with a strong lean on the radar trends and the higher resolution HRRR for the near term, and more wx active, part of the forecast. Sensible weather will feature warming temperatures through dawn for most of the area - and especially the valleys - as a warm front lifts through with a few scattered showers around for a time until around mid morning. This rain threat basically ends from southwest to northeast during the morning with near record and record warmth commencing this afternoon and again on Tuesday. Tuesday`s highs will actually approach all time highs for the month of February at JKL and LOZ. The main question for these extreme values will be the amount of cloud cover and the thickness of any deck during peak heating. For now will continue to go with the headline grabbing 80 degree readings for Tuesday afternoon and still nice low to mid 70s today. For tonight, a summertime worthy ridge to valley temperature structure should develop with warm readings on the hilltops and still very mild conditions in the valleys. Despite the moisture available, these warm temperatures and still some clouds around should limit the fog potential early Tuesday morning. Definitely the finest weather of the month on tap for eastern Kentucky over the next few days! Used the CONSShort and ShortBlend as the starting point for all the grids for the short term. Made some significant changes to the valleys for lows tonight and also more minor adjustments to the spot high temperature forecast for today and Tuesday. As for PoPs, lingered them a tad longer this morning than the quickly drying CONSShort and also allowed for some sprinkles as the sfc ridge builds over the area this morning. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 305 AM EST MON FEB 19 2018 The extended period looks to be wet and very warm, with almost daily chances of rain and well above normal temperatures. A series of weather systems will bring rain to eastern Kentucky from early Wednesday morning through late Sunday night. There may even be a few thunderstorms rumbling across the area on Wednesday. Temperatures will vary from the 60s to 70s each day, and mainly in the 50s each night. A number of locations may only fall into the lower 60s Tuesday night. Winds should be generally out of the south or southwest at 5 to 10 mph each day, and light and variable at night. The windiest day looks to be Wednesday, when winds will be out of the south at around 10 mph across much of the area. Wind gusts that day should top out at 15 to 20 mph.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) ISSUED AT 100 AM EST MON FEB 19 2018 An approaching warm front will bring a period of showers and MVFR ceilings to most of the area into early Monday morning. Will lower all ceilings by 09z, where they are not already starting off as MVFR - along with the presence of passing rain showers - VCSH. Ceilings will raise back up to VFR levels by mid to late Monday morning, as the boundary lifts north of the area. An increasing low level jet, associated with the developing warm front will bring low level wind shear through at least the mid-morning hours on Monday. At the surface, light and variable winds will veer to the south at around 5 to 10 kts overnight, before increasing to around 10 kts, with gusts of 15 to 20 kts by mid to late Monday morning. Wind shear will also be a concern Monday night even as cigs will hold in the VFR category. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GREIF

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