Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 261731 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 131 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 1207 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017 The forecast was in pretty good shape so far today, so no major changes were made. Based on current trends of convection evolution and model data, still feel like the best chance for thunder will in the northern half of the forecast area, where the axis of best instability is still expected to set up this afternoon. Hourly obs were ingested into the forecast grids to establish new trends as well. Any outdated wording was also removed from the zone forecast text product. UPDATE Issued at 816 AM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017 The area of showers is moving northeast slightly faster than was forecast, and adjustments have been made. However, there are no significant forecast changes. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 439 AM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017 A weakening stacked low pressure system is centered in the vicinity of Quincy, IL and Burlington, IA early this morning. The mid/upper level portion of the system has a trough axis extending southeast to the Gulf of Mexico. As the trough moves northeast, it is interacting with a moist flow of air off the Gulf, resulting in a large area of showers. The leading edge of showers is over the southwest part of the JKL forecast area early this morning, heading east northeast. The area of showers will make its way across the rest of the forecast area this morning, and the back edge will exit into WV around mid day. There is no change in surface air mass taking place with this round of precip. However, there are colder temperatures aloft behind the leading band of precip. This has resulted in scattered showers and a few thunderstorms during the night over western KY and West TN. As the regime shifts eastward today, forecast soundings show instability developing to support showers and thunderstorms here. Uncertainty exists in the extent of coverage. While everyone should see rain out of the leading band of precip coming through early, that may not be the case in the afternoon. Whatever showers/storms do occur will be on the decline and moving out to the northeast with the upper level system tonight. Another surface low pressure system and an associated wave aloft will move northeast toward the Ohio valley on Monday. This will bring with it another increase in showers and thunderstorms, aided by diurnal destabilization. The peak in activity will likely come on Monday evening, beyond the short term period. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 439 AM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017 One of a string of upper Level waves that is moving into the Four Corners region this morning based on the 00Z 500mb analysis will bring a decent shot of showers and thunderstorms for the beginning of the period Monday night. This wave will induce a surface low across the Central Plains by tonight and eject into the Ohio Valley Monday night. Models seem to be handling this well and feel more confident in this versus much of the rest of the long term portion of the forecast. Tuesday the system will continue to progress east and trim POPs through the day from west to east. Models are in decent agreement with the drying period from Tuesday night into Wednesday night. While there is some amplitude differences with the upper level ridge and height rises think there is enough to keep the region dry. This also coincides with the NAEFS relative min in PWATs. Beyond this models become quite convoluted and begin to diverge in their respective solutions. The 00Z GFS wants to bring a more positively to neutral tilted closed low east out of the Plains by Thursday night and the 00Z ECMWF bring a more neutrally to slightly negatively tilted trough with more of a northern stream influence by the same time frame. This seems to be a phasing issue and these two solutions will have implications on the surface features as well. There also remains a reasonable amount of spread in the GFS ensemble mean in regards to the upper level feature and spread in the individual members with regards to low placement hints previous statement. Even given some uncertainty the fact that both solutions would bring a decent shot of showers and perhaps some thunderstorms went with likely POPs from west to east from Late Thursday into Friday evening. The blend wanted to go CAT POPs but felt like uncertainty would be too much for that bullish of POPs. This system pegged to move into the Mid Atlantic and therefore a period of drying will resume Saturday. Overall the period will be met with well above to above average temperatures. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017 Scattered to numerous rain showers will spread across eastern Kentucky through around 2Z tonight. A few thunderstorms may also occur north of the Hal Rogers Parkway, possibly affecting JKL, SYM, and SJS. VFR CIGs in general are expected, although MVFR conditions may occur where an intense rain shower or any thunderstorms directly impact one of the airports mentioned above. BKN to OVC low and middle level cloud cover will plague the area through the end of the TAF period, with VFR conditions expected from 23Z through the end of the TAF period. Any chance for thunder should be gone by 0Z. After that, numerous rain showers should steadily taper off through around 6Z, with no rain expected anywhere between roughly 7 and 13Z Monday. Winds will be generally out of the south at around 10 mph today, with gusts of up to 20 mph possible at times.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...AR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.