Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 250457 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1257 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 1257 AM EDT SUN JUN 25 2017 Late night obs show ridge/valley differences of several degrees, and the forecast has been updated to account for this. UPDATE Issued at 955 PM EDT SAT JUN 24 2017 Beautiful evening here on the mountain, and all across eastern Kentucky. Forecast looks on target and no substantive changes were needed.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 234 PM EDT SAT JUN 24 2017 Cooler and drier air continues to invade the region in the wake of the cold frontal passage last night. A rather extensive field of fair weather cumulus is evident on satellite across the OH valley and most of eastern KY with some cirrus streaming in from the southwest. The cumulus field will diminish this evening, and mostly clear skies will prevail overnight with temperatures falling into the 50s. Some fog will form tonight, but it should be confined to the river valleys. On Sunday dewpoints will continue to fall reaching the upper 40s and lower 50s, thus providing for quite comfortable conditions with maximum temperatures in the middle to upper 70s. A reinforcing shot of cool air will occur Sunday night as another cold front moves across the area. There will be very little moisture associated with this, with little or no increase in cloud cover and no precipitation expected. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 346 PM EDT SAT JUN 24 2017 Upper level cyclonic flow will continue to hold strong from the Northwestern Passages into the Gulf of Mexico early in the week, keeping below normal temperatures in the offing. Surface high pressure building into the mid-Mississippi Valley will bring a secondary shot of cooler air into eastern Kentucky, keeping high temperatures in the mid 70s with overnight lows in the low-mid 50s. An upper impulse swinging through the Great Lakes Monday will be followed by another more subtle wave approaching out of the Midwest into the evening and overnight hours. Moisture profiles currently look adequate enough to at least warrant slight chance PoPs given the presence of upper forcing. Will have to continue monitoring moisture availability without any real semblance of return flow into eastern Kentucky, but would believe some top-down moistening will be in store as the forcing draws nearer. MUCAPE looks rather anemic as expected, so kept thunder mention confined to along the Virginia border early Tuesday afternoon given enough moisture/lift remain in place at that time. Another surge of cooler air will again keep temperatures confined to the 70s. Following a ridge/valley temperature split Wednesday morning underneath the influence of surface ridging, a warming trend will ensue for mid-late week as temperatures rebound toward the 80 degree mark. Shower/thunderstorm chances will creep back into the picture Thursday in the Cumberland Valley in the presence of better return flow and storms propagating northeastward after being orographically induced along the Cumberland Plateau. Temperatures back in the mid 80s with dewpoints surging through the 60s will reintroduce summer, with this type of airmass looking to maintain itself into the weekend. Shower/storm chances will increase Friday into the weekend as eastern Kentucky remains immersed in southwest flow. Chances would be further increased depending on how northern stream energy evolves, particularly in terms of a deeper system and potential subsequent frontal boundary nearby. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) ISSUED AT 1257 AM EDT SUN JUN 25 2017 The most fog prone valleys may have some visibility restrictions around dawn. TAF sites are not expected to be affected. Otherwise, VFR conditions with winds of 10 kts or less are expected through the period.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...SBH LONG TERM...GUSEMAN AVIATION...HAL

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