Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 131516 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1016 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 1015 AM EST WED DEC 13 2017 Forecast was on track overall. Updated to blend latest obs/trends into the forecast. UPDATE Issued at 650 AM EST WED DEC 13 2017 Did a quick update to the grids mainly to reflect the latest obs and trends. These have been sent to the NDFD and web servers. Also updated the zones and HWO to add in the Red Flag Warning just issued.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 355 AM EST WED DEC 13 2017 08z sfc analysis shows a quick hitting area of high pressure moving through eastern Kentucky. This has cleared the sky and settled the winds somewhat - leading to a very cold night. Currently, readings are varying from the mid to upper teens for much of the area with some low 20s noted in the far southeast. Dewpoints, meanwhile, are quite dry as well with single digits noted. The winds are starting to turn around to the southwest as the axis of the sfc high moves off to the east. The models are in good agreement aloft with the next in a series of moderately strong shortwaves to move through the Ohio Valley today and tonight. This latest wave passes through in two parts - a dampening one this afternoon and a steady state trailing one around midnight. The models match up well with the first impulse and not quite as well with the latter one. In their wake, the pattern flattens out, but fast flow continues so that additional bits of energy will stream by aloft through Thursday evening. Given the generally decent agreement have favored the blended solutions, though with emphasis on the higher resolution HRRR and NAM12 solutions for details. Sensible weather will feature a chilly start to the day, but plenty of early sunshine (along with increasing south to southwest winds) will send temperatures up into the low to mid 40s most places. The winds will get rather gusty this afternoon and through the evening as the sfc high shifts east and a strong low moves through the northern Ohio Valley tightening up the pressure gradient. Higher winds will mix down from aloft to prompt gusty conditions of up to 35 mph. This will be of a concern for area boaters in particular on Cave Run Lake and Lake Cumberland so will issue a Lake Wind Advisory during this time to give them heads up. Will also issue an SPS for the entire area as gusty winds will could be trouble if only by blowing around lawn ornaments and garbage cans along with difficulty driving for east to west routes in higher profile vehicles this afternoon and evening. As the low passes by to the north tonight, its cold front will bring a switch to the winds and colder air pours into eastern Kentucky. In addition, some light pcpn will be possible for our northern and eastern parts, but do not expect any impact with mainly flurries and sprinkles the dominant wx type. Warmer temps this afternoon should also warm the road sfcs and keep them clear of any icing issue, though sheltered spots may have to be watched more closely should the pcpn actually reach the ground tonight. Cannot rule out a few spits of freezing sprinkles or drizzle, but the threat is too marginal at this point to mention outside of the AFD. Will pass this concern on to later shifts, though. Colder air then moves in effectively late tonight into Thursday with everything drying out by mid morning, but clouds and cool conditions remain. Made only minor changes to temperatures through the period given the dominance by CAA at night - though did bump up highs a notch today given the stronger south to southwest winds, particularly over the Cumberland Valley. Also, generously beefed up the winds and wind gusts for the afternoon and evening - especially west as the mix-down winds seemed to be underdone in the ShortBlend. Finally, brought PoPs up for the upslope potential post frontal tonight. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 305 AM EST WED DEC 13 2017 The latest model data is painting a bit different picture of the extended portion of the forecast. It appears now that the one active period in the extended is going to be from around dawn on Sunday through early Monday evening. A large and well developed area of low pressure is forecast to move across the Tennessee and Ohio Valley regions from the end of the weekend into the start of the upcoming work week. The model data has this system taking shape over northern Mexico late in the day on Saturday, and eventually moving out of the southern Plains and Mississippi valley and into our part of the country. This system will feature rain and snow showers initially, with a transition to all rain taking place Sunday morning, as warmer air moves into the region. The low is then expected to move slowly across the area, keeping precipitation in the area through the end of the day on Monday. Once this weather system exits the region, a ridge of high pressure is then expected to settle over the eastern third of the CONUS, bringing a period of dry weather to the region through the middle of the week. Temperatures will start out quite cold, with highs highs only making it into the mid to upper 30s on Friday. A slow warm up in this expected over the weekend, with highs the mid to upper 40s on Saturday, and then around 50 on Sunday. The warmest days in the extended should be Monday and Tuesday, with highs each of those days expected to reach the lower 50s. Nightly lows will also see the same warming trend, with minimum values in the lower 20s expected Friday and Saturday mornings. After that we should see an uptick in daily lows, with values each day from Sunday onward expected to be in the 30s across the area. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) ISSUED AT 700 AM EST WED DEC 13 2017 VFR conditions will persist through the bulk of the period. Look for light winds to pick up from the south to southwest to near 15 knots late this morning through the afternoon and into the evening as a low pressure system moves toward the northern Ohio Valley. Gusts this afternoon could reach 25-30 kts. Later tonight wind shear looks to be a concern as the sfc winds turn northwest and die down but winds aloft continue strong. At this point, cigs may drop down to MVFR post a cold front passing through after midnight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 710 AM EST WED DEC 13 2017 A windy day combined with a very dry air mass will necessitate a Red Flag Warning for this afternoon through the first part of the evening. Winds will back southwesterly today while becoming sustained at 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. These winds will also gust up to 35 mph. At the same time, drier air will subsequently spill into eastern Kentucky as minimum relative humidity values drop to between 20 and 25 percent. The humidity levels should recover above 25 percent after sunset, though winds will stay up until late in the evening. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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Red Flag Warning until 9 PM EST this evening for KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. Lake Wind Advisory until midnight EST tonight for KYZ051-052-060- 079-080-083>085-106.
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&& $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GREIF FIRE WEATHER...GREIF

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