Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 030140 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 940 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 940 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 MADE JUST MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST GRIDS IN LIGHT OF LATEST OBS AND 18Z MODEL RUNS. THERE IS NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER NIGHT OF STRATUS BUILD DOWN WITH SOME FOG PUSHING BACK ONTO THE RIDGES LATE TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL HOLD TOUGH AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS ON THE COOL SIDE. PLAN TO GO WELL UNDER GUIDANCE AGAIN...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THE ONES WE SAW TODAY...PERHAPS JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS COULD POP UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THERE AGAIN...LACK OF INSTABILITY COULD LIMIT AERIAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE. MODELS HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE INSTABILITY... TEMPERATURES...AND CLOUD COVER POORLY...SO ITS HARD TO PUT FAITH ON ANY PRECIPITATION FORECAST FROM A MODEL. FOR NOW...GOING TO GO WITH ANOTHER CLOUDY NIGHT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ASSUME CLOUDS HANG ON. THIS WOULD PUT LOWS BACK INTO THE 50S FOR ANOTHER NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 THE STUBBORN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN CONTROLLING OUR WEATHER WILL BE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST AT THE START OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IT WILL EVENTUALLY OPEN UP AND DRIFT EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY...RELINQUISHING CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN THE PLAINS...WE WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE DIVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL DROP TOWARDS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THEN LIKELY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE TO OUR SOUTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT. BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND ANOTHER WAVE WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY WITH THE FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE ON MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY AFFECTING OUR WEATHER IS GOOD...BUT TIMING ON THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND SURFACE FEATURES IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS BELOW AVERAGE. THE OVERALL PATTERN REQUIRES KEEPING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FROM THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AS THE UPPER LOW LOSES ITS GRIP ON OUR WEATHER. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 940 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 CONDITIONS WERE LARGELY MVFR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. FURTHER DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED A LITTLE BEFORE DAWN...WITH SOME TAF SITES POSSIBLE REACHING AIRPORT MINIMUMS. CEILINGS WILL AGAIN RISE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLY BREAKING UP IN SOME LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...MODELS DID NOT HANDLE THINGS WELL ON TUESDAY...AND WITH THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FOUL CONDITIONS STILL PRESENT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW. AT THIS POINT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN MODELS SUGGEST ON WEDNESDAY.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...HAL

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