Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 251121 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 621 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 621 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 O6Z NAM AND GFS ARE NOW IN AND BOTH ARE A LITTLE MORE ROBUST WITH PRECIPITATION AND BOTH A TAD FARTHER WEST WITH THE EXTENT. IN FACT...THE NAM SNOWFALL ALGORITHM IS SUGGESTING AS MUCH AS 5 INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...THIS IS THE FIRST RUN SUGGESTING THIS HIGH OF QPF AND WILLING TO CONSIDER IT AN OUTLIER FOR NOW...BUT THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE TRENDS TOWARDS THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT. ALREADY SEEING SOME COOLER CLOUD TOPS DEVELOPING ACROSS EAST TEXAS...SO AS MENTIONED...MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR A FARTHER WEST EXTENT TO THE PRECIPITATION. ALSO SOMETHING ELSE TO CONSIDER...DRY AIR MIX DOWN ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON MAY BRING DOWN SOME AWFULLY LOW DEWPOINTS...WHICH WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR GOOD WET BULB COOLING AS PRECIPITATION MOVES IN TONIGHT. THUS...IF LOWER DEWPOINTS MATERIALIZE...THEY MAY HELP DISTINGUISH BETWEEN WHO GETS MORE SNOW...VERSES MORE RAIN. LOWER DEWPOINTS WOULD ALLOW FOR A FASTER TRANSITION TO SNOW...AND THUS...MORE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. FOR NOW...WILLING TO SIT ON THIS AND LET DAY-SHIFT RE-EVALUATE THE NEED FOR ANY CHANGES. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD COURSE...IT LOOKS LIKE AT A MINIMUM A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WOULD BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 307 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING WITH SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE DAY...PROVIDING A COOLER...BUT STILL RELATIVELY PLEASANT DAY. IN FACT...WITH THE HELP OF THE SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES IN SOME PLACES ALREADY IN THE 40S THIS MORNING...WE SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM SURPASSING THE 50 DEGREE MARK THIS AFTERNOON. WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR JUST OFF THE SURFACE...RAP AND HRRR ARE SUGGESTING FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. IT MIGHT BE A STRETCH TO FALL INTO THE TEENS...BUT CERTAINLY DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE MID 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL PUT US CLOSE TO THE 25 PERCENT RH`S THIS AFTERNOON. I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SPOTS ACTUALLY REACH THIS VALUE...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER FLORIDA AND TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. NEARLY ALL MODELS ARE IN SUPPORT OF MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST AND EAST KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR IN PLACE...WET BULB TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW. ASSUMING WE GET PRECIP RATES THAT SUPPORT IT...WE SHOULD SEE PRIMARILY SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT SOME RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE FARTHER INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY WHERE PRECIP RATES MAY NOT BE AS HIGH. REGARDLESS...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ABOVE 2500 FEET...WHERE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE. LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS UP TO AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM INEZ TO HAZARD...TO BARBOURVILLE. WHILE SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...THE REST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY MAY NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN INCREASED CLOUD COVER. PLAN TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE AN SPS FOR OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES TO ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER INTO WEDNESDAY...WENT WITH A PRETTY GOOD GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH READINGS AROUND 50 IN THE WEST TO LOW AND MID 30S IN THE EAST. PRECIPITATION WILL DEPART BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPORARY BREAK IN PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 307 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 THE MODELS BEGIN THE PERIOD IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EJECTING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THIS INITIAL SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...SO ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND NOT VERY HEAVY. A SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY ONLY TOPPING OUT AROUND 40 DEGREES...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN PROGGED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND...WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON TAP FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SATURDAY COULD MARK THE START OF A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO WARM EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS THE MERCURY CLIMBS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BOTH DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FEEL ALMOST BALMY IF THEY IN FACT ONLY DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S EACH NIGHT. ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL LIKELY SPILL INTO THE REGION TO BEGIN THE PERIOD TO ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX WITH RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO AND STALLS OUT ACROSS THE AREA. THE MODELS KEEP THE FRONT IN PLACE...AND THEREFORE THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS TO REMAIN IN LIQUID FORM. DUE TO SOME SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS REGARDING PRECIPITATION ONSET...DURATION...AND AREAL COVERAGE...DECIDED TO GO WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...THE FRONT COULD EITHER REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE AREA...ECMWF...OR DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH AS A WEAK WARM FRONT...GFS...DURING THE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. ONLY TIME WILL TELL. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 621 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MOISTURE BACK INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT...WITH CIGS LOWERING. AS OF RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE A GRADIENT IN THE LOWER CIGS WITH THE LOWEST (IFR/MVFR) IN THE EAST...TRAILING BACK TO VFR IN THE WEST. WE WILL ALSO SEE PRECIPITATION SPREAD INTO THE AREA...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...LIKELY BECOMING ALL SNOW. THIS WILL RESTRICT VISIBILITIES BY LATE TONIGHT AS WELL...MAINLY AT KJKL AND KSJS.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...KAS

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