Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 220253 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 953 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 953 PM EST TUE NOV 21 2017 A convergence zone over the eastern part of the forecast area strengthened and has produced some pop up showers. Adjusted the PoPs to account for this. Cold front on track to enter the CWA and bring increasing clouds and a northerly wind shift. Ingested current observations, but the forecast looks on track for the temps and dew points so no adjustments were made. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 300 PM EST TUE NOV 21 2017 High pressure will be the primary influence on the weather of eastern Kentucky in the short term. A fast moving upper level weather system will move across the region tonight, and will bring broken to overcast low and middle level cloud cover to the area. The system will be moisture starved, so no precipitation is expected. Temperatures will be influenced strongly by the amount of cloud cover that ends up forming, so went slightly above the latest MOS guidance for tonights lows. The passing system tonight will usher some cooler air into the area, so highs on Wednesday are expected to only top out in the 40s across the area. Another shot of cold air is in store for Wednesday night, with lows in the mid to upper 20s on tap for Thanksgiving morning. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 336 PM EST TUE NOV 21 2017 Generally good agreement among model solutions today. We continue to see a progressive and amplified pattern across the CONUS. Only feature of real interest for our area will be a fast moving short wave trough and its associated surface cold frontal boundary which will push through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions by next weekend. Models have been fairly consistent in bringing this system through our area dry, keeping any shower activity to our north. As a result our sensible weather will remain dry though models do suggest a shot at some rain just beyond the forecast window. Temperatures will then fluctuate between brief periods of cooler then warmer weather. We start out rather cool for Thanksgiving Day, then moderate a bit by week`s end before dropping briefly again to wrap out the holiday weekend. Temperatures moderate once again by the end of the forecast window. Overall temperature will average at or just below norms for this time of year. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) ISSUED AT 714 PM EST TUE NOV 21 2017 VFR conditions will prevail this evening ahead of a dry cold front arriving from the lower Ohio Valley late this evening into tonight. Cloud bases will lower overnight, with MVFR ceilings likely materializing at JKL/SJS through early/mid Wednesday morning. Some IFR ceilings will also be possible nearer to the Virginia state line. Winds of 5-10 knots will veer northerly overnight while diminishing below 5 knots Wednesday afternoon as clouds lift and mix out. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...CGAL SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...RAY AVIATION...GUSEMAN

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