Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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539 FXUS63 KJKL 082015 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 315 PM EST Thu Dec 8 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 315 PM EST THU DEC 8 2016 Surface analysis reveals the strong Canadian high pressure remains parked across the central portion of the country and we remain in the middle across eastern KY. This has led to tighter isobars and consequently we have seen west to WNW flow with gusts 15 to 20 knots. Also we have seen some CU develop this afternoon given decent low level lapse rate and weak moisture at around the 850mb level. The better coverage of Stratocu is placed to our north and this will continue to spread SE through the evening and overnight. Model soundings would suggest we also manage to get some moisture into the dendritic growth zone and this will aid in the potential for some flurries. Also given the better cloud cover went really close to previous in trying to show overall higher numbers low temp wise in the east and lower values across the Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland region. Goes without saying that Black Mountain will likely be the big winner with lower teens. Friday the surface high pressure is expected to build east and this will ease the pressure gradient across the region. Also upper level winds will reduce overtime and lead to little influence from afternoon mixing. Cold air will be maximized early Friday as 850mb temps will be between -10 to -12C, and this will lead to one of the coldest afternoons of the season with most not making it above the freezing level. While 850mb temps begin to warm Friday night the surface high will crest across the region. This will lead to another night of teens and even lower teens for many including the valley spots. The only issue would be some mid level clouds and how they could lead to a slight dampening of temps. That said was not willing to go much lower than the lowest COOP MOS number which came in at 14 degrees. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 315 PM EST THU DEC 8 2016 availiable shortly && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST THU DEC 8 2016 Much of the lower deck from this morning has scattered out and now we are left with mostly high clouds across eastern KY. While we have returned to VFR this afternoon Vis Sat and Obs are showing a area of low MVFR building SE toward the region. These clouds will stream in through evening and overnight and some snow showers/flurries will also be possible. We have seen winds increase out of the west at around 7 to 10 knots this hour and would expect that to continue through the afternoon. Gusts will generally be around 15 to 20 knots. These winds are still expected to reduce through the evening. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...DJ

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