Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 260731 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 331 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Thursday) Issued at 331 AM EDT WED APR 26 2017 Surface and mid level ridge axis will continue to shift east today with return flow developing across eastern Kentucky. This will help to usher in some milder weather today with highs into the mid 80s under sunny skies. In the meantime, a potent shortwave vort max will be digging into the southern Mississippi river valley. A robust line of showers and storms will develop along a surface cold front as this wave pushes across that region today. This activity will then advance eastward tonight. While some weakening is expected overnight, it may become cold pool dominated and keep on going through much of the night. If this is the case, this line of showers and storms could arrive by daybreak into our southwestern counties, then move across the rest of the area during the Thursday morning hours. This system will have fairly good 0-3km shear and this would aid in maintaining the cold pool as it pushes across the area. The big question is how much instability will be in play Thursday morning. 00z GFS has some fairly significant values of SBCAPE, while the NAM has almost none. The answer may be somewhere in the middle of these two solutions, as surface moisture may not be as high across the area as the GFS is suggesting. Regardless, any instability with the shear involved would aid in the potential for a few damaging downburst winds. The recent event that comes to mind is the March 1st wind event. However, this time around the low level jet is not quite as strong, but nonetheless, there will be at least a low end severe risk through the morning and into the early afternoon hours. Showers and storms should be done by mid afternoon, with the evening shaping up to be dry. Temperatures will be a challenge on Thursday as early day convection may take temperatures down before a recovery is seen in the wake of the convection in the afternoon and evening hours. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 331 AM EDT WED APR 26 2017 Long term discussion will follow shortly.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) ISSUED AT 242 AM EDT WED APR 26 2017 VFR conditions and light winds will be seen over the next 24 hours. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...KAS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.