Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 252044
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
344 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND ANOTHER EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES. RIDGE PROVIDING WIDESPREAD
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ALL EXCEPT A SLIVER OF CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL N
DAKOTA. AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
HIGH PLAINS...WITH 80S AND 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER ACROSS THE REGION. DECENT LL MOISTURE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS...WHERE DEW PTS IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60. CLOSER TO HOME DEW PTS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE FOG OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN S
DAKOTA WILL SLIDE SE THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE GOOD LL MOISTURE ACROSS KS TO
ADVECT INTO THE REGION. MODELS SOUNDINGS...AND MOS GUIDANCE IN
AGREEMENT FAVORING FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR
NW THE FOG WILL MAKE IT. SHOULD COVER MOST OF THE I80 CORRIDOR ALONG
WITH HIGHWAY 83...AND POINTS S AND E. WILL MONITOR THE
DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER WITH CLEAR SKIES AND THE LIGHT SE WINDS...FOG
COULD BECOME DENSE. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME DUE TO CONCERNS ABOUT LOCATION...HOWEVER IT WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY.

TOMORROW AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO CROSS THE ROCKIES AND PUSH ONTO
THE HIGH PLAINS...WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SCOURING OF THE FOG
IN THE MID MORNING ACROSS THE WEST. THE EAST WILL LIFT DURING THE
LATE MORNING HOURS AS THE CLEARING EXPANDS EASTWARD ALONG WITH THE
SLOW DIURNAL WARM UP. SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL HELP TO WARM TEMPS QUICKLY FOR THE AFTERNOON...INTO THE 70S AND
LOW 80S. LOWEST HIGHS STILL IN THE MID 70S WHERE FOG WILL LINGER THE
LONGEST...PORTIONS OF N CENTRAL NEB. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THE
FRONT SO WILL ONLY SEE AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS FROM THE WEST DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
FRONT COMING ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETERMINISTIC PRECIPITATION FIELDS WITH THE NAM12 BEING DRIER THAN
EITHER THE GFS40, THE GEMREG OR GEMNH.

A STRONG FRONT COMING ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERATE STRONG
SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 300-310K LAYER LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE UNDERLYING
LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE 35-40 PERCENT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
NEED TIME FOR SATURATION TO OCCUR. THEREFORE...DESPITE STRONG UPWARD
MOTION...THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE
IS LOW. IT APPEARS THAT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LAST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION AT ALL THROUGH SEVEN DAYS.

THE GREATEST EFFECT OF THE FRONT WILL BE TEMPERATURE DECREASES
BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF ABOUT 20F. EVEN AT THAT...EXCEPT FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE... TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
TONIGHT DUE TO FOG AND LOW STRATUS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY AS CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THEIR FORECASTS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT...WITH ANYWHERE FROM VFR TO LIFR IN THE
GUIDANCE. 17Z ANALYSIS INDICATES HUMID AIR JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH LOW
TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL HELP TRANSPORT THIS HUMID AIR MASS INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...PROVIDING A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS AS TEMPERATURES COOL
TONIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 83. HAVE INTRODUCED IFR
CONDITIONS INTO THE TAF FOR KLBF AFTER 06Z...AND MVFR AT KVTN
AFTER 08Z. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR UP AS FOG AND STRATUS
GRADUALLY DISSIPATES BY MID TO LATE SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY EVALUATED
GOING FORWARD...AS THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE TRENDED
EITHER UP OR DOWN A CATEGORY WITH FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...MARTIN






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