Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 281129 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
629 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

Efficient rainmakers moving across western Nebraska early this
morning with reports of heavy rain coming out of Garden county and
then what was reported in Alliance will carry pre first period to
account for it. Storms move into more stable air and dissipate west
of a line from Ainsworth to North Platte. Storms will refocus on the
Pine Ridge later this morning and into the afternoon. timing of the
next wave to come across the ridge to the west is main focus. Mostly
cloudy today with cooler temperatures than yesterday. Better chances
for precipitation this evening over southwest Nebraska with the next
wave and continuing into Saturday. Some areas of heavy rain
possible. Lows tonight in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

Upper level ridge axis will slowly migrate westward from the central
Rockies to the Great Basin this weekend.  This will largely allow
for northwest flow aloft across the high plains, which is shown to
at times direct weak disturbances through.  At the surface, high
pressure will dominate the Great Lakes and Missouri Valley with
general easterly to southeast flow for much of the Sandhills region.
PWATs remain above average through the weekend with values at times
exceeding the 1.75 inch range.  The latest stability progs indicate
a weakly to moderately unstable atmosphere with weak 0-6km bulk
shear of 20-30kts for most locations. Thunderstorms will be possible
along the instability gradient over the heart of the Sandhills and
southwest Nebraska Saturday afternoon with the activity becoming
more isolated and shifting east on Sunday.  Despite the less than
favorable shear, a strong to severe storm or two capable of gusty
winds and heavy rainfall will be possible on Saturday. The latest
QPF fields show moderate to heavy accumulations where the storms

For temperatures this weekend, cooler Canadian air recycled around
the high pressure will keep highs in the lower to mid 80s for most
locations.  Typical lows in the 60s are anticipated.

Next week the ridge remains centered near the Great Basin north into
BC, leaving northwest flow for the central Plains. Shortwave energy
is seen with the potential for periodic disturbances passing through
the mean flow.  The models respond by placing periodic pop chances,
but those chances are lower confidence.  Highs through mid week are
progged to be seasonal or slightly below average owing to the
potential unsettled conditions and the fact that the cwa will be
east of the ridge.  Late week there are indications that the ridge
will build northeast toward the Canadian prairies, which would allow
for a greater sw flow in the lower levels and weak thermal
advection. Temperatures would begin to trend up.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

Isolated thunderstorms and rain showers will continue over western
Nebraska this morning. Ceilings will be in VFR category with mid
and high clouds. Southeast winds will increase through the morning
to 5 to 15 mph. Thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon
over the panhandle and move into western Nebraska. Storms will
initially move between KIEN and KOGA.




LONG TERM...Jacobs
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