Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 270449

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1149 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Issued at 308 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

H5...there is a broad ridge over the south central CONUS. Closed low
moving into the Great Basin and another over south central Canada
with cutoff low over the Northeast CONUS.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Outlooked again today with slight risk over the southeast Nebraska
Panhandle and southwest Nebraska and marginal along and south of
Highway 2. Forecast challenge will be timing of system Moving out
of Great Basin. Looking like a later show tonight than last night.
Surface high pressure over western Nebraska this morning with dew
points in the 30s and low 40s. Upslope component over northeast
Colorado and the eastern plains of Wyoming. Stronger wave ejecting
out of trough over the Great Basin but not progged into the
western Panhandle until 00z. HRR and Nam quite similar with the
timing. 850mb low level jet 40kts developing over northeast
Colorado into the southern Nebraska Panhandle through 00z and then
migrating with the wave east into southwest Nebraska through 3z.
Will slow the progression of precipitation east this evening and
continue it over portions of the area through Saturday. Lows
tonight again cool and have gone with cooler guidance again.
Shouldn`t see a 33 like last night over southern Sheridan county
but some areas of the Pine Ridge will possibly see an upper 30.
Strong north flow on Saturday with rain ending over north central
zones O`neill through the day. Have gone cooler again with highs
in the low to mid 60s. Cold raw day.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

With Strong upper low anchored over northern Minnesota we will see
fast northwest flow with schc precipitation as weak waves move
through fast northwest flow...timing issues. Then there will be
several backdoor cold fronts dampen the temperatures especially over
northern Nebraska.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Local radar shows rain showers occurring across portions of
southwest NEB, eastern NEB Panhandle, and the western Sandhills
with embedded thunderstorms in Garden and Arthur counties.
Showers (and possible isolated thunderstorms from the
southwestern Sandhills on south) will continue and fill in
overnight across western NEB and spread into north central NEB
through the small hours. Precipitation chances continue into
tomorrow morning with chances then diminishing in the afternoon.

Ceilings are expected to deteriorate sub-VFR during the small
hours late tonight across western NEB. Current thinking is both
KVTN and KLBF terminals will be impacted by sub-VFR ceilings
beginning in the early morning with conditions improving late
morning/early afternoon.


Issued at 308 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Lewellen on the North Platte River above McConaughy will remain in
bankfull state through the weekend with rises into the middle of
next week. Have continued the river statement. Increased
precipitation tonight moving across the Panhandle may contribute
to the rise on the North Platte River above McConaughy.




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