Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL

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000 FXUS63 KLOT 032330 AFDLOT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 630 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015 .SHORT TERM... 229 PM CDT THROUGH TONIGHT... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS ANCHORED SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY...KEEPING A COOLER NW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED JUST TO OUR WEST...WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING LAKE MICHIGAN. THE RESULT IS MUCH QUIETER WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. READINGS ARE HOLDING IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S UNDER MODEST NORTHWEST WINDS. THERE IS A LAKE BREEZE KEEPING ONSHORE WINDS IN PLACE...BUT THIS IS CONFINED TO FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA WITH AN AREA OF CUMULUS CLOUDS. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARE CONFINED TO WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE LOW. THIS PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND WEAKENING WINDS TONIGHT...A COOL NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH MANY LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. EXPECT 60S IN AND CLOSER TO CHICAGO. KMD && .LONG TERM... 326 PM CDT TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY... QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST ON TUESDAY AS THE AREA REMAINS IN BETWEEN THE STRONGER WESTERLIES USHERING IN MID LEVEL ENERGY TO THE SOUTHWEST...AND STRONGER ENERGY WELL TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST TIED TO LARGE UPPER LEVEL CENTER. AFTER A PERIOD OF CAA...A MORE NEUTRAL SETUP WILL BE IN PLACE ON TUESDAY AND WITH SUNNY SKIES ONCE AGAIN IN PLACE...MOST LOCATIONS WILL OBSERVE HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S. GENERALLY QUIET/DRY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN PLACE WITH REGARDS TO POSSIBLE SYSTEM DURING MIDWEEK...WITH GUIDANCE STILL VARYING FROM COMPLETELY DRY CONDITIONS TO MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP. MAIN TIME FRAME OF UNCERTAINTY IS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS/SREF STILL THE MORE AGGRESSIVE OF THE MODELS...BRINGING A WETTER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXTENT OF THE NORTHERLY PUSH OF THE STRONGER MID LEVEL ENERGY THIS WEEK WILL DICTATE OUR WEATHER THIS WEEK AND FOR THE GOING FORECAST...HAVE MAINTAINED HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER NORTH DURING THIS TIME. INSTABILITY AXIS LOOKS TO REMAIN ALONG/NEAR THE SOUTHERN CWA...AND HAVE ALSO CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER. RODRIGUEZ && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z... * NONE. RC //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN MID-LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND GUST INTO THE MID- HIGH TEENS. A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO FORM AND COULD GET CLOSE TO OR PASS THROUGH GYY LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING...BUT IS VERY LIKELY TO REMAIN EAST OF ORD/MDW. RC //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z... * HIGH IN ALL ELEMENTS. RC //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z... WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA IN THE EVENING...OTHERWISE VFR. WINDS BECOMING EAST. THURSDAY...CHANCE SHRA/SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA...OTHERWISE VFR. EAST- NORTHEAST WINDS. FRIDAY...CHANCE SHRA/TSRA...OTHERWISE VFR. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS. SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. SUNDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA/TSRA AT NIGHT. RC && .MARINE... 444 PM CDT WESTERLY WINDS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST...AND HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH WILL SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AND SHIFT EAST OF THE LAKE BY MID WEEK...WHILE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT DURING THIS PERIOD. GUIDANCE VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH REGARDS TO SURFACE PATTERN FROM MID WEEK TO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH CHANGES TO CURRENT WIND SPEED/DIRECTION FORECAST LIKELY IN THE COMING DAYS. RODRIGUEZ && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

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