Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000 FXUS66 KLOX 221253 AFDLOX SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 331 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... EXPECT FOR SOME CLOUDS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AND WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR COAST AND VALLEYS. SOME COOLING EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH A HINT OF RAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED HIGH CLOUDS RIDING OVER A DIRTY RIDGE WITH AN UPPER HIGH SITTING OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. WITHIN THIS UPPER FLOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. ALTHOUGH MODELS WERE HINTING AT LIMITED MOISTURE REACHING AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION...HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH THIS WEAK QUICK MOVING SYSTEM. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST...SOME CLOUDS WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE SBA/VTU AND WESTERN LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THESE AREAS. AGAIN...RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE VERY LOW. SYNOPTICALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL SET UP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS WEEKEND WITH BROAD NW TO N FLOW OVER THE REGION. AS THE UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS AND MEANDERS CLOSER TO THE COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE AND SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT BASIN IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING TROUGH WHICH WILL CAUSE STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL CREATE AN OFFSHORE GRADIENT ALLOWING FOR SANTA WINDS TO DEVELOP BY SUNDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS THAT ARE GENERATED FROM THIS WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. INITIALLY...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT WIND PRONE PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST. A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS CONVERTED TO A STRONG WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE PERIODS OF BLOWING SAND AND DUST CAUSING VISIBILITY ISSUES ON HIGHWAY 14 AND 138. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR...THEN SPREAD INTO THE SANTA CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE WIND ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL. THE HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE CONVERTED TO A STRONG WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LOCAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH AROUND WHITAKER PEAK THIS EVE. SOME OF THESE WINDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SEPULVEDA PASS AND INTO WEST LA WITH SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS REACHING LAX TONIGHT. GUST TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NE IN A MORE TYPICAL SANTA ANA WIND DIRECTION BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE ADDED FOR THE VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS STARTING 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST AND LA COUNTY COAST BETWEEN THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS AND MALIBU LATER SUNDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THESE TWO LOCATIONS WILL SEE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...THERE WILL BE LIMITED WARMING TODAY ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS TODAY WITH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS...WITH BEST WARMING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR AREAS. BY SUNDAY...EXPECT COOLER TEMPS TO REACH THE INTERIOR REGION AS OFFSHORE DEVELOPS. THIS MEANS...MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK. TUE/WED WILL EXPERIENCE THE WARMEST TEMPS FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. EXPECT COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS 60S. ONE ISSUE OF CONCERN WILL BE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE ADVERTISES PORTIONS OF THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. WITH CONTINUED OFFSHORE WINDS...ONLY WIND PROTECTED AREAS WILL DROP THAT LOW. WILL LET FUTURE SHIFTS LOOK AT THIS TO DECIDE IF A FREEZE OR HARD FREEZE WATCH IS NEEDED. .LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)... NOT MUCH CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY TUE THROUGH THU AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY ON THU WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW STRONG OF A SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. OVERALL...EXPECT ABOVE TEMPS TUE THROUGH WED...WITH COOLING THU/FRI BUT REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION...AT 10Z THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX. JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING... WITH VFR CONDS ALL AREA. WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME MID LVL CLOUDS TO THE CENTRAL COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... AND THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS. EXPECT CONDS TO REMAIN VFR. GUSTY N WINDS WILL AFFECT SRN SBA COUNTY AND THE I5 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT WITH SOME LLWS/MDT UDDF. N WINDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE SANTA CLARITA/SAN FERNANDO VLYS TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT NLY WINDS MAY REACH KLAX TONIGHT. KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LLWS BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REACH 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BETWEEN 04Z AND 10Z. KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LLWS BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z. && .MARINE...22/300 AM PST... GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT...AND IN THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT. THERE WILL BE LOCAL GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTS FROM AROUND PT CONCEPTION TO NW OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH SCA CONDS MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SCA LEVEL NLY WINDS CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM MALIBU TO SANTA MONICA TONIGHT. GUSTY NE WINDS MAY AFFECT THE INNER WATERS NEAR SHORE FROM SANTA MONICA TO VENTURA AND OUT TO SANTA CRUZ AND ANACAPA ISLANDS MON MORNING. && .FIRE...21/320 PM PST. STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW WILL FORM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AFFECTING THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND ANTELOPE VALLEY...AS WELL AS SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. SUSTAINED WINDS TO 40 MPH AND GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN SOME THROUGH MONDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. MEANWHILE...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN DROP INTO THE VALLEYS AND COASTS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WITH THIS DRY AIR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 8 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE. AS A RESULT...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS EVENT. THE SANTA YNEZ AND SAN RAFAEL RANGES OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...INCLUDING THE MONTECITO AREA...HAVE A CHANCE FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES MAY SEE ISOLATED RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. MORE WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...AND EVEN MORE SO ON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED OVER THE WEEKEND TO ADDRESS THIS PERIOD. SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY WILL SEE ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS...BUT SHOULD NOT REACH RED FLAG DURATIONS. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX). WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX). SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX). HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...KAPLAN AVIATION/MARINE...DB FIRE...KITTELL WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

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