Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000 FXUS66 KLOX 012110 AFDLOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 210 PM PDT FRI JUL 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Strengthening onshore flow and a deepening marine layer will bring a cooling trend into the weekend. Marine layer clouds will reach into the valleys, however warm and dry conditions will prevail in the mountains and deserts. A gradual warmup is expected early next week as high pressure builds in over the desert Southwest. && .SHORT TERM...(TDY-MON) Some lingering mid level moisture has spawned a few thunderstorms to our east but so far just some light cumulus over the ern San Gabriels. There`s a non-zero chance of a storm across the ern AV or San Gabriels but will keep pops <15. Otherwise, remainder of the short term forecast is very much like we see it today. Marine lyr along the coast but then spreading into the valleys overnight. Dry southwest flow aloft will keep any monsoon moisture well to the east. Locally gusty onshore breezes expected each afternoon in the AV and through mountain canyons. Temperatures will trend cooler by a couple degrees on Sat then either little change or a degree or two warmer Sunday and Monday. .LONG TERM...(TUE-FRI) Models seem to be settling in on more of a trough pattern next week, especially by Tue and Wed. So after a slight warmup early in the week temps should level off or even drop a degree or two for the middle of the week. Both the EC and GFS show the ridge expanding west by Fri and Sat with a modest warming trend going into next weekend. && .AVIATION...01/1800Z... Upper level trough northwest of the area will approach the area as a mid level low develops centered west of the San Miguel Island. Upper level moderate west-southwest winds will become moderate to strong southwest while mid level light to moderate south winds becoming light southwest after 02/22z over the area. Moderate onshore pressure gradient through 02/04z and after 02/20z otherwise weak onshore gradient. Marine capping inversion at LAX was approximately 2.4kft this morning will differ by minus .4kft Saturday morning. Current smoke trajectory originating from Ventura county Pine fire where differ little through the period. Marine layer at LAX at 1700Z is 2365 feet deep and the inversion top is at 3938 feet with a temp of 24.7 degrees C. KLAX...chance cigs 015-020 between 02/03-02/20z. KBUR...chance vsby 5sm haze through 01/19z. chance cigs 012 after 02/06z. virtually certain - 95-100% very likely - 80-95% likely - 60-80% chance - 30-60% very unlikely - 20% OR LESS && .MARINE...01/200 PM... Small craft advisory for hazardous sea conditions will exist through late tonight north of Point Conception. The fetch area is near shore north of the area and the winds are expected to diminish tonight. otherwise small craft advisory for winds are not expected through next week Tuesday. Extra currents and surging along exposed south facing shores will persist through Saturday. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening For zones 40-41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening For zones 645-670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...MW AVIATION...30 MARINE...30 SYNOPSIS...Sweet weather.gov/losangeles

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