Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000 FXUS66 KLOX 252155 AFDLOX SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 253 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY IN THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR. IT WILL BE COOLER THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TUESDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...
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SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE DYING COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO SLO AND SBA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR ALL REPORTS OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAVE STAYED NORTH OF SLO COUNTY. THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE FOR THE CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING...WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING NO MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME GUSTY SUB-ADVISORY WINDS OUT OF THE SW ACROSS THE VENTURA AND LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS. AFTER THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW LATER TONIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ON THE NORTH FACING SLOPES IN THE NORTHERN VENTURA AND LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FORECAST ALSO CALLS FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE LA COAST AND VALLEYS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WHILE THE CENTRAL COAST STAYS MOSTLY CLOUD FREE BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE LOW CLOUD FORECAST IS RATHER LOW WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY AS THE COOL AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES INTO PLACE. WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND A TIGHTENING NORTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...SUNDOWNER WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...LATEST RUNS NAM DO NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT...SO A WIND ADVISORY DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. BY MONDAY MORNING...SOME WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED SO MONDAY COULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY...BUT NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE EXPECTED WITH A NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. WITH CONTINUED WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW ON TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO DEVELOP ALOFT...MORE NOTICABLE WARMING IS LIKELY FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW 80S FOR THE VALLEYS AND MID 70S FOR THE COAST. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WELL...WITH THE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. .LONG TERM (WED-SAT)... THE WARMING TREND AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S FOR THE VALLEYS ON WEDNESDAY AND NEAR 80 FOR THE COAST. SLIGHT COOLING IS LIKELY FOR THURSDAY AS OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS AND THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THE 12Z GFS, ECMWF, AND GEM REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME RAIN TO MOST OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...PLAYED IT SAFE AND ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS N OF PT CONCEPTION FOR LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH IF THE CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS COME TRUE...VENTURA AND LA COUNTY WOULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS WELL.
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&& .AVIATION...25/1800Z... THE BASE OF THE INVERSION AT KLAX AT 1655Z WAS NEAR 640 FT. THE INVERSION TOP WAS AT 2600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES C. NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS. AFTER 03Z VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR KPRB WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND LITTLE OR NO CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HOWEVER...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE RETURN OF SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS TO LAX BASIN TAF SITES AFTER 06Z. KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. VFR CONDS VIRTUALLY CERTAIN THROUGH 06Z. AFTER 06Z...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF STRATUS CIGS WITH TIMING AND HEIGHT OF CIGS UNCERTAIN. KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. HIGH CLOUDS WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTER 06Z...LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST OF STRATUS CLOUDS FORMING. 40% CHANCE NO LOW CIGS WILL DEVELOP AND TIMING/HEIGHT OF CIGS IS UNCERTAIN. && .MARINE...
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25/200 PM... OUTER WATERS...A WEAK FRONT IS CROSSING THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL MOVE INLAND SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN GALES IS OVER THE WATERS FROM PT CONCEPTION TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND...WHERE GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...A LARGE MODERATE PERIOD WEST-NW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS THIS EVENING...WITH SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS RISING TO 10 TO 13 FEET AT 13 SECONDS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ROUGH SEAS ARE CERTAIN DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LARGER WEST SWELL AND NORTHWEST WIND WAVES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME BY MONDAY MORNING...BUT SOLID SMALL CRAFT WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH TUE...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. INNER WATERS...LARGE SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS NORTH OF PT SAL...AND A SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. HAZARDOUS BAR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE MORRO BAY ENTRANCE LATE TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS WILL LIKELY SEE LOCAL SCA GUSTS TO 25 KT...WITH COMBINED SEAS PEAKING NEAR 5 TO 8 FEET SUNDAY. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE THAT GUSTS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ENOUGH OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF PZZ650 AND PZZ655 TO REQUIRE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
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&& .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX). SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX). HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX). HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX). BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
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&& $$ PUBLIC...SUKUP AVIATION/MARINE...SMITH SYNOPSIS...SWEET WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

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