Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS66 KLOX 012110
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
210 PM PDT FRI JUL 1 2016
Strengthening onshore flow and a deepening marine layer will bring
a cooling trend into the weekend. Marine layer clouds will reach
into the valleys, however warm and dry conditions will prevail in
the mountains and deserts. A gradual warmup is expected early next
week as high pressure builds in over the desert Southwest.
Some lingering mid level moisture has spawned a few thunderstorms
to our east but so far just some light cumulus over the ern San
Gabriels. There`s a non-zero chance of a storm across the ern AV
or San Gabriels but will keep pops <15.
Otherwise, remainder of the short term forecast is very much like
we see it today. Marine lyr along the coast but then spreading
into the valleys overnight. Dry southwest flow aloft will keep any
monsoon moisture well to the east. Locally gusty onshore breezes
expected each afternoon in the AV and through mountain canyons.
Temperatures will trend cooler by a couple degrees on Sat then
either little change or a degree or two warmer Sunday and Monday.
Models seem to be settling in on more of a trough pattern next
week, especially by Tue and Wed. So after a slight warmup early in
the week temps should level off or even drop a degree or two for
the middle of the week. Both the EC and GFS show the ridge
expanding west by Fri and Sat with a modest warming trend going
into next weekend.
Upper level trough northwest of the area will approach the area
as a mid level low develops centered west of the San Miguel
Island. Upper level moderate west-southwest winds will become
moderate to strong southwest while mid level light to moderate
south winds becoming light southwest after 02/22z over the area.
Moderate onshore pressure gradient through 02/04z and after 02/20z
otherwise weak onshore gradient. Marine capping inversion at LAX
was approximately 2.4kft this morning will differ by minus .4kft
Saturday morning. Current smoke trajectory originating from
Ventura county Pine fire where differ little through the period.
Marine layer at LAX at 1700Z is 2365 feet deep and the inversion
top is at 3938 feet with a temp of 24.7 degrees C.
KLAX...chance cigs 015-020 between 02/03-02/20z.
KBUR...chance vsby 5sm haze through 01/19z. chance cigs 012 after
virtually certain - 95-100%
very likely - 80-95%
likely - 60-80%
chance - 30-60%
very unlikely - 20% OR LESS
Small craft advisory for hazardous sea conditions will exist
through late tonight north of Point Conception. The fetch area is
near shore north of the area and the winds are expected to
diminish tonight. otherwise small craft advisory for winds are not
expected through next week Tuesday. Extra currents and surging
along exposed south facing shores will persist through Saturday.
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening
For zones 40-41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas in effect until 9 PM
PDT this evening For zones 645-670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).