Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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435 FXUS66 KLOX 100428 AFDLOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 828 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...GIVING WAY TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN ONE LAST DAY WITH POSSIBLE RECORD HEAT BEFORE A SLOW BUT STEADY COOLING TREND TAKES HOLD THROUGH SATURDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM...(TUE-FRI) OVERALL...A VERY QUIET EVENING ACROSS THE DISTRICT. LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS MOVING OVERHEAD. OBS DATABASE INDICATES SOME LINGERING NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT AT LEVELS WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. QUICK LOOK AT INITIAL 00Z MODEL DATA INDICATES NO MAJOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST THINKING. AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. NEAR THE SURFACE...WEAK DIURNAL TRENDS LOOK TO CONTINUE (WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW NIGHT/MORNING HOURS AND WEAK ONSHORE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS). WITH THIS PATTERN...THE SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS FROM TIME TO TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WILL LOOK FOR A SLOW COOLING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES STILL REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS FOR ANY WIND ISSUES...NONE ARE EXPECTED. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED. .LONG TERM...(SAT-TUE) A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND BRINGS SOME CLOUDINESS AND A FIVE TO TEN DEGREE DROP IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THE RIDGE REFORMS FAIRLY QUICKLY ON SUNDAY BUT IT IS NOT AS STRONG. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AS WELL AND THE NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BEGIN ALMOST AS WARM AS THIS ONE. NO PRECIPITATION IS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST THOUGH THERE REMAINS HOPE FOR A PATTERN SHIFT BY THE END OF THE MONTH. && .AVIATION...09/2245Z... AT 2230Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF PACKAGE AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP ALL SITES VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP AIRFIELD VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP AIRFIELD VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. && .MARINE...09/830 PM... FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS ALL WATERS. ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND...SEAS WILL INCREASE AS A LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL MOVES IN. ADDITIONALLY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. SO...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH BOTH WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND... THERE IS A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND LARGE LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL MOVES IN. FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...THOMPSON/KJ AVIATION...THOMPSON MARINE...THOMPSON SYNOPSIS...MUNROE WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

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