Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000 FXUS66 KLOX 202357 AFDLOX SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 450 PM PDT SUN APR 20 2014 NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION .SYNOPSIS... WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE CENTRAL COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A TUMBLE TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE BRINGS SOME CLOUDS AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL COOL THINGS DOWN AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)... NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY OTHER THAN THE USUAL MARINE LAYER ISSUES. DENSE FOG FORMED ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST THIS MORNING WITH A MARINE LAYER DEPTH NEAR 800 FEET AT VANDENBERG. NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE IN THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH TONIGHT FOR AREAS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...SO SOME DENSE FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AGAIN. FOR NOW JUST HAVE PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE FORECAST. THE LA AND VENTURA COAST SHOULD SEE MORE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING WITH ANOTHER WEAK EDDY SPINNING UP AND A STRONGER INVERSION. WASN`T MUCH OF AN INVERSION AT LAX THIS MORNING...SO THE STRATUS WAS LIMITED. ON MONDAY...THE CENTRAL COAST SHOULD SEE ABOUT 5 DEGREES OF COOLING...AS OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WAS PRESENT EARLIER TODAY WILL BE WEAKER AND WILL TURN ONSHORE QUICKER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM AS 500MB HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS VALUES DON`T CHANGE MUCH. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...A WEAKENING AND MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHERN SLO COUNTY...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH THE INLAND AREAS RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES COOLER AND ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CENTRAL COAST...SBA SOUTH COAST...MOUNTAINS...AND ANTELOPE VALLEY MAY END UP NEEDING WIND ADVISORIES DURING THIS PERIOD. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ALSO WIPE OUT THE MARINE LAYER...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. .LONG TERM (WED-SAT)... LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS 500MB HEIGHTS RISE A BIT WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW AT MID-LEVELS. MODELS DISAGREE SOMEWHAT WITH THE STRENGTH OF A TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE GFS AND GEM HAVE BEEN STRONGER AND WETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MOSTLY DRY...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF DID COME IN A BIT WETTER. FOR THIS REASON A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE ADDED TO MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. && .AVIATION...
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20/2350Z... MARINE LAYER IS NEAR 800 FEET DEEP. IFR STRATUS WILL LIKELY REACH AS FAR NORTH AS KNTD OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS AT KOXR AFT 11Z AND A 20 PERCENT LIFR KSBA AFT 12Z. LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR CENTRAL COAST TAFS WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR CIGS/VIS AT KSBP AFT 09Z AND A 30 PERCENT CHC OF NO CIGS AT KSMX. KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THRU 09Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF RETURN OF IFR CIG/VSBYS WITH CIGS ARRIVING +/- 2 HOURS OF FORECAST. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN 17Z CLEARING. KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS AFTER 12Z.
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&& .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX). HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX). MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...SUKUP AVIATION...ASR SYNOPSIS...SWEET WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

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