Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000 FXUS66 KLOX 031010 AFDLOX SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 300 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO SOME AREAS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS WEEK. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY THROUGH MID WEEK RESULTING IN A SLIGHT WARMING TREND. COOLING IS EXPECTED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST MOVES EAST. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)... VERY UNEXCITING THREE DAYS ON TAP FOR SRN CA. THERE WILL BE A LARGE HIGH COVERING THE DESERT SW AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CA COAST. THIS WILL SET UP DRY SW FLOW OVER SRN CA WHICH WILL NOT ALLOW ANY MONSOON FLOW TO DEVELOP. A 1300 FOOT MARINE INVERSION WILL ALLOW COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP LATE EACH NIGHT AND LAST INTO THE MID MORNING. SOME VLYS WILL SEE SOME PATCHY MORNING CLOUDS BUT NOTHING MUCH. THAT SAID CLOUDS TODAY ARE RATHER SLOW TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING SINCE THERE IS NO EDDY. THERE IS A CHC THAT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF ANY STRATUS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THIS MORNING. THE STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS SHOULD SPIN UP AN EDDY TONIGHT AND THERE WILL BE BETTER AND QUICKER DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A MODERATE NW PUSH ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AND THIS WILL SET UP A SUNDOWNER EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE SBA SOUTH COAST. THE WIND GUSTS WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVEL EACH NIGHT BUT THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE FOCUSED TOWARDS GAVIOTA RATHER THAN MONTECITO. MAX TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL. .LONG TERM (THU-SUN)... A LITTLE POP UP RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK CUT OFF LOW THAT MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW INLAND TEMPS TO BUMP UP A LITTLE. THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA FRI AND SAT. THIS IS A WEAK AND DRY SYSTEM AND THERE IS NO THREAT OF CONVECTION. THE GENTLE LIFT ASSOC WITH THE LOW WILL ENHANCE THE MARINE LAYER CLOUD DECK AND ALL COASTS AND MOST VLYS WILL BE CLOUD COVERED. HGTS WILL FALL AND WITH THE INCREASED DEPTH OF THE MARINE LAYER THERE WILL BE GOOD COOLING TREND ACROSS THE BOARD. SOME INLAND WARMING SATURDAY AS HGTS RISE IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AS HGTS REBOUND A LITTLE MORE AND THE MARINE LAYER SHRINKS. SW FLOW HOLDS STEADY OVER THE AREA AND THERE THE AREA WILL STAY MONSOON FREE. && .AVIATION...03/0610Z. MARINE LAYER AROUND LAX AT 0600Z WAS 1100 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP IS AT 2700 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 25.7 DEGREES C. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH STRATUS COVERAGE AND TIMING ALONG COAST. SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT LA/VTU COUNTY VALLEYS WILL REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING HIGH IFR OR LOW MVFR CIGS ACROSS COASTAL SITES. TIMING COULD BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS FOR DEVELOPMENT. 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT IFR CIGS COULD OCCUR AT KSBA AFTER 10Z TOMORROW MORNING. SCOUR OUT TIMES SHOULD BE +/- 1 HOUR FROM 00Z TAFS. KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH 06Z TAFS. 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS COULD BE ONLY MVFR AFTER 10Z TONIGHT. CIGS SHOULD BE MVFR FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE 24 HOUR FORECAST. SCOUR OUT TIMES SHOULD BE +/-1 HOUR FROM 00Z TAF. KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 06Z TAF THROUGH 10Z. AFTER THAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR. 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP AFTER 11Z MON MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDS THROUGHOUT 24 HOUR PERIOD. && .MARINE... 03/300 AM SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND STEEP SEAS WILL PERSIST FROM POINT CONCEPTION TO SOUTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN THE WEST HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA BASIN AND IN THE VICINITY OF SANTA CRUZ ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EACH AFTERNOON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...RORKE AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN SYNOPSIS...SUKUP WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

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