Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS66 KLOX 261120 AFDLOX SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 330 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN COOL SOME ON FRIDAY WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)... THREE CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAYS IN A ROW FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PEAK OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH 590 DM HGTS AND THEN SLOWLY FADE THROUGH FRIDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE MARINE LAYER AWAY BUT LIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY KIND OF REAL CANYON WINDS. THREE DAYS IN ROW OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7 WITH MAX TEMPS 12 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH RELAXES AND HGTS FALL (MORE COOLING ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST WITH A BETTER SEA BREEZE) BETTER COOLING FRIDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW FINALLY RETURNS BUT STILL MAX TEMPS WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. .LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)... ONSHORE FLOW AND A WEAK EDDY WILL CONSPIRE TO BRING BACK MARINE LAYER STRATUS TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH NEW NAM SUGGESTS THAT THE CLOUD COVERAGE MAY BE A LITTLE LESS THAN IN CURRENT FCST. LOWER HGTS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO NOSE DIVE WITH THE COAST AND VLYS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. WOULD LOVE TO REPORT THAT THE LONG RANGE MDLS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT AND THAT THERE IS SOME SORT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THAT...HOWEVER...IS NOT THE CASE. EC TOOK A TURN FOR THE WEIRD AND DELAYS THE STORM TO TUESDAY. GFS SEEMS A LITTLE SLOWER TOO. SO RIGHT NOW FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITS TO THE CENTRAL COAST ON SUNDAY. RAIN MIGHT DEVELOP MONDAY OR IT MIGHT HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY OR IF THE NEW EC IS CORRECT TUESDAY NIGHT. REALLY GOING TO HAVE TO MAKE LIKE RAY GUY AND PUNT THIS FCST INTO TOMORROW AND HOPE FOR SOME KIND OF AGREEMENT. FOR NOW JUST CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY THAT MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY WILL BE WET. BOTH EC AND GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF DECENT RAIN JUST NO IDEA WHEN. SKIES WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ALL THREE DAYS SUN TO TUE. && .AVIATION... 26/1030Z AT 0915Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAS WITH THE TOP OF THE INVERSION AT 1900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURES OF 23 DEGREES CELSIUS. OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP ALL SITES VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH AS NOT TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND ISSUES. KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. && .MARINE...26/200 AM... FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND POTENTIALLY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. FOR INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ONSHORE WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND POTENTIALLY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE && $$ PUBLIC...RORKE AVIATION/MARINE...RAT SYNOPSIS...KAPLAN WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.