Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000 FXUS66 KLOX 291111 AFDLOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 411 AM PDT FRI JUL 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure aloft will result in above normal temperatures through Saturday, with night through morning low clouds and fog affecting some coastal areas. Weakening high pressure will bring high temperatures back to near normal levels Sunday, with only minor changes in high temperatures expected through mid week. Monsoonal moisture will bring a slight chance of thunderstorms to the mountains and desert early next week.
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&& .SHORT TERM...
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(TDY-SUN) Low cloud pattern was very similar to this time on Thu, with clouds widespread on Central Coast, pushing locally into the Santa Ynez Valley. With a shallow marine layer in place, there was some locally dense fog, but too localized to require dense fog advisories. Some patches of stratus were also developing in the coastal waters south of Pt Conception, and should push into coastal sections of srn SBA County and VTU/L.A. Counties by daybreak, but only into locations near the immediate coast. Once again, all low clouds should be gone by mid morning. With slightly weaker onshore flow, max temps may be up a couple of degrees west of the mtns, with only minor changes in the mtns and the Antelope Valley. This should put high temps in the warmer valley locations close to 105 degrees, with highs approaching 110 degrees in the warmest locations in the Antelope Valley. That would be close to Excessive Heat Warning levels, but dew points should be low enough to keep heat index values below thresholds. There may be a few buildups in the mtns and across eastern sections of the Antelope Valley today, but do not expect any showers/thunderstorms. The upper high over northern AZ and southern NV will slowly weaken tonight thru Sunday. This should bring a few degrees of cooling each day, bringing temps back to near normal levels in most areas by Sunday. Night through morning low clouds may become a bit more widespread in coastal areas tonight and even more so Saturday night, but the marine layer should remain shallow enough so that most valley locations will remain mostly clear. The exception to this will likely be the Santa Ynez Valley, and possibly lower portions of the San Gabriel Valley. There will be some mid and high levels moisture, particularly across eastern sections of the forecast area over the weekend, but at this point, expect just some buildups each afternoon and evening. .LONG TERM...(MON-THU) The upper high will linger over Nevada into Tuesday, then it will be forecast westward off the coast as a trough moves thru the Pac Nw Tue through Wed. The upper flow and moisture profile look to be favorable for a slight chance of showers/tstms in the mtns and Antelope Valley Mon and possibly Tue, then less so thereafter. Expect minor day to day fluctuations in the night through morning low cloud patter, generally confined to the coastal plain, with max temps generally near normal thru the pd.
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&& .AVIATION...
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29/1100Z. At 1030z, the marine layer was around 1000 feet deep at KLAX. The top of the inversion was near 4300 feet with a temperature around 30 degrees celsius. N of Point Conception...Moderate confidence with 12z tafs. Will continue to with persistence with little changes expected over the next couple of days. Cigs should remain LIFR/IFR. Expect similar timing for cigs to scour out and redevelop tonight into Sat morning. S of Point Conception...Low confidence with 12z tafs for coastal tafs. At this point looks like cigs will stay off the coast allowing VFR conds. But there could be a late surge into the LA/VTU/SBA coastal sites after 12z. Just not very confident. Expect a similar type of pattern tonight into Saturday with low confidence in coverage and timing of IFR cigs. KLAX...Low confidence with return of IFR cigs between 12Z and 16Z. There is a 40 percent chance that VFR conditions could persist through entire 24 hour forecast period. KBUR...High confidence in VFR conditions through period.
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&& .MARINE...
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29/300 AM. High confidence with the forecast through this weekend. Have taken down the Small Craft Advisory for This afternoon for Zone PZZ673 through early Saturday morning mainly affecting coastal areas around Point Conception. Mainly because only expecting local gusts to 25 kt around that region. There is a 40% chance that gusts could become more widespread and the SCA might need to be added late this afternoon. Otherwise no significant issues across the coastal waters through this weekend. A small but long period southerly swell will develop Saturday night through Sunday. Not anticipating any issues.
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&& .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CA...NONE. PZ...NONE.
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&& $$ PUBLIC...DB AVIATION...CK MARINE...CK SYNOPSIS...DB weather.gov/losangeles

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