Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 242334

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
634 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Apr 24 2016

Most of the convection tonight is expected to remain north of our
forecast area, associated with an upper level low now over southwest
SD and a surface low over central SD which will move eastward
through the northern Plains.  Widely scattered, weakening convection
though may move into portions of northeast and central MO as well as
west central IL late tonight as a southwesterly low level jet brings
low level warm air advection and increasing moisture into this area.
Will just have slight chance pops late tonight for areas north and
west of STL.  Southerly surface/low level winds, increasing cloud
cover, and relatively high surface dew points will lead to low
temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal and warmer than the
previous night.


.LONG TERM...  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Apr 24 2016

Warmer conditions to persist through Tuesday with several weak
shortwaves sliding through helping to trigger scattered showers and
thunderstorms. In the meantime, frontal boundary associated with
main system to slowly sink south, eventually stalling out along I-70
corridor by Tuesday afternoon.

More active weather to ramp up late Tuesday night as low level jet
increases with decent instability and convergence along the stalled
front. Elevated storms, some of which may be severe, could develop
into an MCS and slide east along front. Main threats would be large
hail, damaging winds and possibly a few tornadoes.

Depending on when morning activity diminishes/moves out on
Wednesday, another round of storms to develop as front moves back
north as a warm front and main cold front starts to slide through
Wednesday afternoon/evening. So if atmosphere is able to recharge,
storms to develop ahead of system with main threats being large hail
and damaging winds.

Precipitation to taper off Thursday and Thursday night, before next
chance of rain returns on Friday and persists through Sunday.
Otherwise, the default ridge setup in our part of the CONUS will
ensure that temps remain at or above average throughout the period.



.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Sun Apr 24 2016

Thunderstorms over eastern Kansas are expected to weaken and stay northwest
of the terminals. Dry and VFR conditions are expected through the terminals.
Southerly winds will likely gust to around 20kts at times on Monday.

Specifics for KSTL: Dry and VFR conditions are expected over the
30 hours. Southerly winds will likely gust to around 20kts at
times on Monday.





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