Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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FXUS61 KLWX 021917
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
317 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY. A LARGE AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE STORMS OVER RNK AREA WILL TRACK ENE INTO
NELSON...AUGUSTA AND ALBERMALE COUNTIES. ENVIRONMENT IS ACTUALLY
LESS FVRBL FOR SEVERE WX THAN YESTERDAY. RECENT ACARS DATA FROM
IAD AND BWI SHOW A 4C DEGREE RISE AT 500 MB SINCE 12Z AND CINH
VALUES RANGING FROM 55 J/KG IN NRN VA TO OVER 200 J/KG IN NORTHEAST
MD. ENVIRONMENT IS MORE UNSTABLE IN THE CHARLOTTESVILLE AREA WHERE
CLOUD STREETS ARE EVIDENT BUT ALOFT TEMPS HAVE WARMED UP
CONSIDERABLY MAKING LARGE HAIL LESS LIKELY. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT.

TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE-TROUGH OVER MISSOURI WILL TRACK EWD WITH
MULTIPLE SFC WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ALONG SLOW MOVING CDFNT.
RAIN/SHOWERS AND MAINLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD OVER
THE AREA THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGHT THE NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE TUE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
RANGE FROM HALF INCH ACROSS THE PA BORDER TO OVER AN INCH SOUTH OF
I-66 AND U.S. ROUTE 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...SFC RIDGING
BUILDS IN TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED WITH A LULL IN PRECIP. A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMS OVER MICHIGAN AND DROPS SLOWLY SWD TOWARD
THE OH VALLEY. SHOWERS MOVE IN AGAIN WED NIGHT IN AREA OF STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND STRONG ASCENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY PIVOT EAST
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR
TWO ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS BROAD COLD CORE LOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY...AND SO WILL THE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS THE LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...THE RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRY OUT CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT...BRIEFLY...BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH SAGS
INTO THE REGION AND BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WON`T BE AS CHILLY SUNDAY.

THE FRONT COULD WORK ITS WAY NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY. THIS
WILL BRING BACK THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

RAIN TONIGHT WITH CIGS DROPPING BACK TO IFR AND EVEN LIFR.
T-STORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT CHO. RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUE MORNING
BEFORE EXITING IN THE AFTERNOON.

IFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
WINDS NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT AS AREA
REMAINS NEAR THE CENTER OF A LOW BUT HIGHER WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...LFR/KLW
MARINE...LFR/KLW



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