Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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FXUS61 KLWX 251430
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1030 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build overhead this morning and remain in
place through Sunday. High pressure will move off the coast Sunday
night. A cold front will move through the region late Tuesday
into Tuesday night. The boundary will remain nearby during the
middle and latter portions of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Visible satellite shows the contrast of clear to cloudy - the
lower Potomac arcing into Carroll County. This is slowly working
westward as high pressure builds into the region from the NE.

Clouds will give way to sunshine from northeast to southwest.
Most areas will be dry this afternoon with plenty of sunshine.
However...it may take til around mid-afternoon for sunshine to
increase across portions of central Virginia into the Potomac
Highlands. Max temps will range from the lower 70s in the
mountains to the lower and middle 80s across most other locations.

High pressure will remain overhead tonight. More dry conditions
are expected along with mainly clear skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The high will continue to dominate the weather pattern Sunday
allowing for plenty of sunshine along with seasonably warm
conditions and low humidity. Dewpoints will be in the 50s to
lower 60s.

The high will weaken and move out to sea Sunday night into Monday.
A return southerly flow will develop during this time. An upper-
level disturbance will also approach the area Sunday night before
passing through Monday. Sunday night should turn out dry and
comfortable...but moisture will increase Monday due to the
southerly flow and the upper-level disturbance may trigger a few
showers and thunderstorms...especially during the afternoon and
evening hours. Monday and Monday night will be warm and noticeably
more humid with dewpoints rising into the upper 60s and lower 70s
for most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z model suite in decent agreement with a cold front progressing
through the Mid-Atlantic. However, the exact timing and progression
of the front looks to have diverging answers amongst the models,
with a split on the front completely clearing the region to the
south as surface high pressure builds in from the west to lingering
just south of the forecast area. Nothing is really noted in the mid
and upper levels to aid in completely clearing the front, especially
with the upper level ridge holding in place over the western US,
resulting in continual troughing over the eastern half. As such,
will maintain at least slight chance PoPs in the forecast to account
for the uncertainty of the surface boundary. Temps currently look to
be right around to slightly be low normal, but this could change
depending on extent of precipitation coverage as well as placement
of the front and trough axis aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will build over the terminals today. IAD/CHO/MRB
are still plagued with MVFR cigs but these should improve as the
day progresses.

VFR conditions are expected later today through Sunday with high
pressure overhead. High pressure will move off the coast Sunday
night and a return southerly flow will increase moisture for
Monday into Monday night...possibly triggering some showers and
thunderstorms.

Generally VFR conditions Tues-Fri with possible sub-VFR
with any shower or thunderstorm each day.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will build along the Mid-Atlantic coast this morning
and it will remain nearby through Sunday. A northeast flow this
morning will turn to the southeast this afternoon into tonight.
The east to southeast flow will persist through Sunday before
turning to the south Monday ahead of an approaching cold front.
Winds should remain below SCA criteria through Sunday night...but
the gradient will increase a bit for Monday into Monday night so
SCA conditions are possible across portions of the waters.

A few showers and thunderstorms may impact the waters later Monday
afternoon into Monday night. Locally gusty winds are possible in
any thunderstorms that develop.

Generally sub-SCA conditions on all waters the middle of next
week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal anomalies remain around one-quarter to one-half foot above
normal. An onshore flow will persist through the weekend...but it
should remain light. Therefore...the anomalies should not change
too much. This would keep water levels below minor flooding
thresholds...but anomalies will have to be watched throughout this
period for sensitive areas.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PREVIOUS...BJL/APS


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