Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 281429
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1029 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
IMPACT THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LVL LOW PIVOTING OFF THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING. SUBSIDENCE
BUILDING IN THE WAKE HAS LED TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH ONLY A
WEAK VORT MAX OVER WV PRODUCING INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR EXTREME
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WINDS INCRSG NOW WITH HEATING...WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20-25 MPH PSBL MAINLY EAST OF BLUE RIDGE. UNDER THE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES...TEMPS HAVE WARMED QUICKLY THIS MORNING...BUT REMAIN
ON PACE FOR HIGHS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRES WHICH HAS BEEN SPINNING IN THE GULF OF ME FOR THE PAST 2
DAYS WL BE MOVG VERY SLOWLY FURTHER OUT TO SEA AS HIGH PRES MOVES
CLOSER TO THE E CST. THIS WL PROVIDE A MAINLY CLR OVRNGT. MAJORITY
OF THE FCST WL SEE LOWS IN THE 40S...L50S IN THE CITIES..MU30S IN
THE HIGHLANDS.

MID ALTC RMNS IN BTWN SYSTEMS WED. CLDS WL LKLY BE ON THE INCRS BY
AFTN AS THE NEXT LOW PRES AREA OVR THE GULF STATES BECOMES BETTER
ORGANIZED. HIGHS WL BE NEAR CLIMO NORMS FOR THE END OF APR W/
HIGHS A70.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH SUBSTANTIALLY LESS POTENT A SYSTEM THAN THE 00Z RUN AT THIS
TIME THE PREV NIGHT...THE RECENT RUN OF THE GFS STILL FAVORS A
RELATIVELY STRONGER CLOSED LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OVER THE
AREA TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. THE DYNAMICS OF THIS FEATURE ARE
LESS IMPACTFUL SINCE IT DOES NOT SYNC-UP W/ THE SRN STREAM MOISTURE
THAT IT HAD EARLIER RUNS. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ARE CLOSER IN
SOLUTIONS NOW...W/ BETTER CONVERGENCE ON HANDLING THE MOISTURE OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH - THE INITIAL WAVE THAT HAD BEEN PULLED NWD IN
EARLIER RUNS BUT NOW BARELY CROSSING INTO SRN VA LATE WED/EARLY THU.
HOWEVER...AS A BULK OF THIS FEATURE MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST...AN UPPER VORT THAT THE EURO CONTINUES TO SHOW AS A WEAKER
FEATURE - BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM.
A SOMEWHAT BRIEF CONNECTION IS THEN MADE BETWEEN THE TWO AND SOME
SCATTERED BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON THU. THIS
WOULD ALSO KEEP COOLER TEMPS AND CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY.

STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE ALREADY OFFSHORE LOW...THE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL INTENSIFYING BUT WELL OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. WINDS
WILL PICK UP QUICKLY BUT MAINLY OFF THE DELMARVA WATERS...TAPERING
OFF TOWARD THE MID ATLC COASTAL ZONES. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY
LINGER INTO FRI BUT DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL BE WRAPPED BACK DOWN
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE ITS SLOW/STEADY PACE AWAY FROM THE COAST AND KEEP THE TRACK
OF NW FLOW PULLING-IN SUBSEQUENT UPPER VORTS...ATTEMPTING TO SLIDE
THEM OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. NEAR ZONAL UPPER FLOW HOWEVER
WILL QUICKLY PUSH FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...PUSHING
AN IN-SITU UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA THIS SAT & SUN - BRINGING BACK
A DECENT WARM-UP. HIGHS INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ARE
EXPECTED TO SLIDE BACK ABOVE AVG...W/ THE POTENTIAL FOR U70S/L80S
SUN AND ESPEC ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. NW GUSTS UP TO 18-22 KTS PSBL
TODAY...MAINLY DC AND BALTIMORE TERMINALS. WIND DIRECTION WILL
SHIFT BETWEEN 300 AND 350 THROUGHOUT THE AFTN BEFORE BCMG
LIGHT/VRB OVERNIGHT.

BETTER CONFIDENCE THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FROM THU INTO
FRI. MAINLY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME LOW-END
NW BREEZES. POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER CONDS AT PEAK ON THU. CONDS
IMPROVING FRI INTO WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THRU 20Z WITH GUSTS AS OF 14Z
BEING REPORTED BETWEEN 18-25 KTS. GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH THERE
AFTER...WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS IN PLACE THRU WED.

A POTENT LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS
WEEK...BUT MAINLY WELL OFFSHORE W/ LESSER EFFECTS BACK TOWARD THE MD
CHES BAY AND TP RVR. PERIODIC SCA GUSTS FROM LATE WED INTO
THU...THEN AGAIN ON FRI AND SAT AFTNS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$


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