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000
FXUS61 KLWX 101431
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1031 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
S-SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS THE
GULF STATES. DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND TO THE NORTH WILL
LEAD TO MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST TODAY. WAVE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
LEADING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDTIONS THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE
CLOUDS TO BREAK DOWN AND MOVE EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO
PERIODS OF SUN. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE UPPER
50S NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE TO THE UPPER 60S IN CENTRAL
VIRGINIA. AREAS IN FULL SUN THIS MORNING SUCH AS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WILL WARM FASTER THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MORE HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
AS ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. A WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MILDER CONDITIONS TONIGHT...COMPARED
TO SUNDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE
MASON-DIXON LINE TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MOST OTHER
LOCATIONS. DID LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE DUE TO HIGH AND
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SETUP WILL BE SIMILAR TUESDAY WITH DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH OF THE JET PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH DURING THIS TIME.

MORE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH HIGH AND
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. TUESDAY SHOULD EVEN BE WARMER DUE TO INCREASED
TEMPS ALOFT FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE LOW-LEVELS. MAX
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE TO THE
LOWER 70S IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

LOW PRESSURE WILL OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL QUICKLY TRACK EAST
AND INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
TUESDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN DURING THIS TIME. MOST
OF THE NIGHT SHOULD TURN OUT DRY...BUT RAIN WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INTO NORTHERN MARYLAND WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA TO NEAR 50 IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY 12Z WED...A WMFNT WL EITHER BE DRAPED ACRS OR VERY NEAR CWFA...
WHILE A FAIRLY DP CYCLONE WL RESIDE IN THE MID-UPR OHVLY. THE TRACK
OF THIS LOW WED WL BE CROSSING CWFA...W/ SUFFICIENT WAA AHD OF IT TO
BE JUST A RAIN-MAKER...AND A FAIRLY PROFICIENT ONE AT THAT. BEST UA
SUPPORT WL BE FOUND LEFT /NW/ OF THE LOWS TRACK...AND THATS WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RA WL BE. AM RUNNING W/ CAT POPS FOR VIRTUALLY ENTIRE
CWFA...XCPT INVOF EZF AND SRN MD...WHICH BE MORE AFFECTED BY WM
SECTOR AND THUS PCPN OF A SHOWERY NATURE.

DUE TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW...AM ALSO XPCTG A THERMAL GRADIENT ACRS
CWFA...W/ TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE UPR 40S ACRS THE WRN SLOPES OF THE
PTMC HIGHLANDS...WHILE CENTRAL VA AND SRN MD WL BE IN THE MID 60S.
SUSPECT REALITY MAY END UP BEING MORE PRONOUNCED THAN THAT. PTMC
HIGHLANDS AND I-81 N OF OKV MOST AT RISK OF NOT EVEN REACHING 50F IF
THE SOAKING LASTS LONG ENUF.

SFC LOPRES WRAPS UP AS IT HEADS INTO THE ATLC WED NGT. INTENSE CAA
WL FLLW THE LOW...ENHANCED BY A WELL AMPLIFIED H5 TROF. QSTN STILL
REMAINS HOW QUICKLY COLD AIR SPILLS INTO CWFA VS EXITING MSTR/PCPN.
WL CONT GOING THEME THAT PCPN WL END FIRST...AS RAIN...BUT CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A LTL SHSN AT THE END. FOR THE WRN SLOPES OF THE
APLCNS...IT DOES SEEM LKLY THAT THERE WL BE A PD OF UPSLP SHSN...
PERHAPS LINGERING INTO THU MRNG.

BHD THE LOW...KINEMATIC FIELDS QUITE IMPRESSIVE...W/ MOMENTUM
TRANSFER SUGGESTING A SOLID 30-40 KT AVBL TO MIX. IF TOP OF MIXED
LYR USED...GFS SUGGESTS WE/D BE APPROACHING 50 KT GUSTS WED NGT. NEW
FCST WL CONTAIN A SUBSTANTIAL INCR TO WNDS/GUSTS...BUT IT/LL STILL
BE CONSERVATIVE COMPARED TO RAW GDNC. WND ADVY THREAT CONTAINED IN
HWO...AND IT/S CERTAINLY WARRANTED.

CORE OF COLD AIR OVER CWFA THU...W/ H8 TEMPS -14C TO -18C. HV MAXT
ONLY IN THE 30S. CONSIDERING SHARPNESS OF TROF...THAT STILL MAY BE A
LTL GENEROUS. IN LIGHT OF THE WND FIELD...APPARENT TEMPS SHUD BE AT
LEAST 10 DEGF LWR.

THE COLD BLAST THURSDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US STRETCHES UP INTO OUR AREA.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL FILL IN AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
SATURDAY MORNING AND HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD MAKE
FOR A VERY PLEASANT START TO THE WEEKEND. NIGHTTIME LOWS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CAUSE A WEAK COLD
FRONT TO SWING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT. ASIDE FROM SOME
LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...LOCAL IMPACTS SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER SATURDAY EVENING AND A HIGH
TEMPERATURE ON SUNDAY IN THE 50S...ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE
HIGH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS. GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
EACH DAY. THERE WILL BE HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH CIGS AROUND
10KFT MOST OF THE TIME. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN TUESDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOST OF THE RAIN
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

WED WL BE THE WORST FLYING DAY OF THE WK...AS LOPRES CROSSES THE
AREA. NO PTYPE ISSUES XPCTD DURING THE DAY...AS TEMPS WL BE WM ENUF
FOR RA. BUT...IFR CIGS/VSBYS LKLY. FLGT CONDS SHUD IMPRV WED NGT...
BUT AT THE EXPENSE OF FRZG TEMPS AND NW WNDS GUSTING TO 30-40 KT.
GUSTY WNDS WL CONT INTO THU...BUT VFR CONDS SHUD OTRW PREVAIL THRU
THE END OF THE WK.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH TUESDAY
WHILE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH. A WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA. IN FACT...THE FLOW MAY BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR AN ONSHORE WIND
TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH MAY
DROP OVER THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME.

SFC LOPRES WL TRACK JUST N OF THE WATERS LT WED. SLY FLOW AHD OF LOW
MAY LEAD TO LOW-END SCA CONCERNS OVR A PORTION OF THE WATERS...SPCLY
THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CHSPK BAY. ALSO OF NOTE WL BE THE STDY RA
THAT WL OVERSPREAD THE WATERS BY AFTN.

ONCE THE LOW PASSES THE MARINE AREA WED NGT...WNDS WL VEER NWLY AND
PICK UP SGFNTLY. MOMENTUM TRANSFER EQUATIONS SUGGEST SOLID SCA IN
SUSTAINED WNDS...AND GUSTS LKLY TO EXCEED GLW. THAT SHUD LAST INTO
THU...THEN DECR THU NGT AS HIPRES BLDS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...CEB/HTS
AVIATION...BJL/HTS
MARINE...BJL/HTS