Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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FXUS61 KLWX 020754
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
354 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT OVERHEAD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WHILE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG
IT...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY. WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT LOW 90S IN THE IMMEDIATE WASHINGTON
DC/BALTIMORE METRO.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...SLIGHTLY MILDER OVER THE METRO CENTERS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY
BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BECOME HOT. AFTERNOON READINGS WILL LIKELY REACH THE 90S IN
MOST AREAS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND IT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVERHEAD FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND AND THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS WHERE FORCING MAY BE A BIT STRONGER ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S/60S IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE.

THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA WILL BE WEAK TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE A DEWPOINT GRADIENT AND WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY A COUPLE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND. EVEN ACROSS THESE
AREAS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED/SCATTERED SINCE
THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SEPARATE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER
CANADA FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL
INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING OF THESE ARE UNCERTAIN THIS FAR
OUT...BUT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
MAY BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AGAIN...TIMING THIS FAR OUT IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR TO PERSIST TODAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS IN THE 10-15KT RANGE
WILL BE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND IT
WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE
DRY. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE
WITH SOUTHERLY CHANNELING ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH STALL OUT NEAR THE WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT AND IT WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGHER DUE TO THE NEARLY-FULL MOON...BUT
ANOMALIES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT TIDAL FLOODING WILL NOT BE A THREAT
THROUGH TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL
ELEVATE TIDAL ANOMALIES ON MONDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT
EXPECTING MINOR FLOODING. THIS POSSIBILITY WILL REQUIRE MONITORING
HOWEVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/KRW
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/KRW
MARINE...BJL/KRW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL/ADS/RCM



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