Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 161918 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 318 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD DURING MIDWEEK...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...COLD AIR MASS/NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS WILL PAVE THE WAY FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND. CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING WILL PROMOTE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT. FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS OFFICIALLY UNDERWAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A LITTLE MORE MARGINAL NEAR THE BAY IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND BUT INTERIOR PORTIONS SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING EVEN IF THERE/S STILL A LIGHT WIND. AFTER THE COLD START THURSDAY...MODIFIED AIR MASS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 50S. BUT WITH A COLD WEDGE AND EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE CAROLINAS WILL INTERACT WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN THE EAST COAST AND BERMUDA TO PRODUCE A MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THURSDAY EVENING BUT THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL PIVOT ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A DRY FRONT AS THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. AS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY BUT SHOULD DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RIDGING ERODES BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. RIDGING THEN RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LEADING TO A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE VALID TAF PERIOD...WITH WINDS VEERING FROM NORTH TO EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST 15 TO 20 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT NEAR MTN...BWI AND DCA WITH A PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND GUST 20 TO 30 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
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&& .MARINE...
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SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE...BUT MAY INCREASE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS VEER TO THE EAST. SCA IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS THE WATERS ON THURSDAY. NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST 20 TO 30 KNOTS. SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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WATER LEVELS REMAIN 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL BUT AS WINDS DIMINISH AND THEN VEER TO THE EAST NEGATIVE DEPARTURES WILL CONTINUE TO EASE TONIGHT.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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...NEAR RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING... TWO OF THE THREE MAJOR METRO AREA AIRPORTS...BWI AND IAD...GOT CLOSE TO THEIR DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. AT REAGAN NATIONAL AIRPORT...DCA...A MORNING LOW OF 34F WAS WELL ABOVE THE RECORD OF 29F SET ON THIS DATE IN 1928. AT BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON INTERNATIONAL...BWI...A MORNING LOW TODAY OF 31F WAS JUST ONE DEGREE OFF THE RECORD LOW FOR THE DATE SET IN 1962. AT DULLES...IAD...THE MIN OF 30F THIS MORNING WAS TWO DEGREES SHY OF THE DAILY RECORD LOW OF 28F SET ON THIS DATE IN 1981. REGARDING RECORD LOW DAILY MAX TEMPERATURES FOR APRIL 16...AS OF 3PM TODAY...DULLES IS STILL TIED WITH ITS DAILY RECORD LOW-MAX OF 46F BUT WITH SEVERAL HOURS LEFT OF SUN WILL LIKELY RISE ABOVE 46F. BOTH BWI AND DCA HAVE RISEN ABOVE THEIR RESPECTIVE DAILY RECORD LOW-MAX TEMPERATURES FOR APRIL 16. RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 17... BWI...26F IN 1962 DCA...26F IN 1875 IAD...27F IN 1983
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR DCZ001. MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ004>007- 009>011-013-014-016>018. VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ036>040- 042-050>057-501-502. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ531>534-537-539>541-543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>533-538>541. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ536- 542. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BPP NEAR TERM...BPP SHORT TERM...KLW LONG TERM...DFH AVIATION...BPP/KLW/DFH MARINE...BPP/KLW/DFH TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BPP CLIMATE...SMZ

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