Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 291959 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 359 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build over the area through tonight. A warm front across Georgia will lift north Thursday into Friday. A cold front wil move into the region Friday night. A frontal boundary is expected to hover over the Mid Atlantic Sunday and Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Pretty spectular weather for the first days of summer courtesy of high pressure building into the region from the Upper Midwest which is creating northwest winds and dewpoints in the 50s across the Mid Atlantic. Tonight should feel extremely comfortable with lows in the 50s west of the Blue Ridge...60s east. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Thursday is expected to be dry and comfortable with highs in the mid 80s. There is a boundary over the Gulf States. There are questions over how far north that will be able to progress...and hence some models have become quite moist with POPs in the likely category. These POPs seem higher than what they should be for the weather pattern and time of the year. For now we`ll keep these in the low chance category Thursday evening...with a better shot on Friday...particularly in the eastern part of the area. 12Z Euro shows a short wave coming through on Friday to begin July..and the SREF severe parameter is showing possible thunderstorms Friday afternoon into the evening hours. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A slight chance of showers or a thunderstorm across the southern half of our region Saturday through Sunday night with a stalled front along the Virginia and North Carolina state line. As a storm system develops along the western end of the front and across portions of the Midwest U.S. Monday into Monday night, the stalled front will propagate northward as a warm front. This warm front will usher in more humid and warm air northward to help fuel showers and a few thunderstorm farther north into northern Virginia, Maryland and eastern West Virginia Monday into Monday night. The next storm system will move across the eastern Ohio Valley and portions of the mid-Atlantic Tuesday. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will accompany the storm system Tuesday. The storm is expected to exit east and move offshore the East Coast Tuesday night. High pressure will usher in cooler and drier air into the region Wednesday. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR tonight and Thursday. Chance of thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. VFR conditions expected Saturday and Saturday night except for possible MVFR conditions near the CHO terminal. Winds northwest 5 to 10 knots Saturday. Winds northwest less than 5 knots Saturday night. && .MARINE... Spotty SCA gusts recently across much of the waters, so expanded SCA to all zones. This is mainly due to mixing in NW flow behind the system from yesterday and is mostly affecting near-shore waters, with lighter winds further out. Winds expected to drop below SCA values tonight. Chance of thunderstorms Friday. No marine hazards expected Saturday and Saturday night. Winds northwest around 10 knots Saturday. Winds northwest 5 to 10 knots Saturday night. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530>543. && $$ PRODUCTS...WOODY!/KLW/RCM

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