Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KLWX 291959
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
359 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2016
High pressure will build over the area through tonight. A warm
front across Georgia will lift north Thursday into Friday. A cold
front wil move into the region Friday night. A frontal boundary is
expected to hover over the Mid Atlantic Sunday and Monday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Pretty spectular weather for the first days of summer courtesy of
high pressure building into the region from the Upper Midwest
which is creating northwest winds and dewpoints in the 50s across
the Mid Atlantic. Tonight should feel extremely comfortable with
lows in the 50s west of the Blue Ridge...60s east.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday is expected to be dry and comfortable with highs in the
mid 80s. There is a boundary over the Gulf States. There are
questions over how far north that will be able to progress...and
hence some models have become quite moist with POPs in the likely
category. These POPs seem higher than what they should be for the
weather pattern and time of the year. For now we`ll keep these in
the low chance category Thursday evening...with a better shot on
Friday...particularly in the eastern part of the area. 12Z Euro
shows a short wave coming through on Friday to begin July..and the
SREF severe parameter is showing possible thunderstorms Friday
afternoon into the evening hours.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A slight chance of showers or a thunderstorm across the southern
half of our region Saturday through Sunday night with a stalled
front along the Virginia and North Carolina state line.
As a storm system develops along the western end of the front and
across portions of the Midwest U.S. Monday into Monday night, the
stalled front will propagate northward as a warm front. This
warm front will usher in more humid and warm air northward to
help fuel showers and a few thunderstorm farther north into northern
Virginia, Maryland and eastern West Virginia Monday into Monday
The next storm system will move across the eastern Ohio Valley and
portions of the mid-Atlantic Tuesday. The chance for showers and
thunderstorms will accompany the storm system Tuesday. The storm is
expected to exit east and move offshore the East Coast Tuesday
High pressure will usher in cooler and drier air into the region
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR tonight and Thursday. Chance of thunderstorms Friday
afternoon and evening.
VFR conditions expected Saturday and Saturday night except for
possible MVFR conditions near the CHO terminal. Winds northwest 5
to 10 knots Saturday. Winds northwest less than 5 knots Saturday
Spotty SCA gusts recently across much of the waters, so expanded
SCA to all zones. This is mainly due to mixing in NW flow behind
the system from yesterday and is mostly affecting near-shore
waters, with lighter winds further out. Winds expected to drop
below SCA values tonight. Chance of thunderstorms Friday.
No marine hazards expected Saturday and Saturday night. Winds
northwest around 10 knots Saturday. Winds northwest 5 to 10
knots Saturday night.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for