Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 291954 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 354 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING. ON THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING IN THE CAROLINAS WILL INTERACT THIS WEEKEND OFFSHORE EAST OF THE REGION. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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CDFNT AND PRECIP SHIELD WORKING THEIR WAY ACRS THE REGION. PRECIP ACRS WRN SECTIONS HAS ALREADY ENDED AND BACK EDGE IS EVIDENT ON RADAR. PRECIP SHUD END ACRS DC/BALTIMORE METRO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND EVERYWHERE LATER IN THE EVE. THEN HIGH RES WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. GUID TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE AND WERE GENLY ACCEPTED. BUMPED PREV FCST UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS LATEST GUID WAS A BIT WARMER.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
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A DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THU WITH HIGH PRES IN FIRM CONTROL. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE A BIT COOLER ON NWLY FLOW. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN, IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH JUST SOME SCT CU. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NRML.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DRY. NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF STORM SYSTEMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND CAROLINAS. FAIRLY LOW SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THIS PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: THE TRACK AND INTENSITY ALONG IF ANY INTERACTION BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS APPROACHING THE REGION HAS BEEN A STRUGGLE TO SAY THE LEAST FOR THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER THERE HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTANCY OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MOVES OUT TO SEA GOING EAST OF CAPE COD. THEN THE LOW ACROSS OHIO VALLEY MOVES EAST ALONG A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED TO NO INTERACTION BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THIS WOULD BRING IN SOME RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY PERHAPS MIXED WITH WET SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. WITH STEADIER PRECIPITATION DYNAMICAL COOLING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD CHANGE RAIN OVER TO SNOW AS WELL, STILL WAY TO EARLY TO HONE IN ON ANY POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD THIS OPTION OCCUR. HOWEVER WE DID PUT IN SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF VA/WV AND MD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH VERY WINDY NOW AND WE COULD EASILY SEE SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT DOWN OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE STEADIEST SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. AREAS FROM DC TO BWI WILL LIKELY SEE MORE INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND MORE OF A EAST FLOW OFF THE WATER ALLOWING HIGH TO GET TO CLOSE TO 50 ON SATURDAY. MET, MAV GUIDANCE SETS ALONG WITH THE ECMWF WERE INCORPORATED IN THESE PERIODS. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO NORTHWESTERLY BY SUNDAY WITH STRONG CAA. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES PRESENTED BY THE MET AND MAV AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE ON SUNDAY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION SO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT GIVE WAY TO WAA FROM SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARMUP IN THIS PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS THEN LIKELY TO PUSH INTO THE REGION BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY HAVE INCLUDED A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. WENT WARMER ON TUESDAY GIVEN THE WAA AND 925 MB TEMPS APPROACHING 9C, GETTING THE REGION INTO THE 60`S.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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NWS MOUNT HOLLY IS BACKING UP THIS OFFICE AND THEIR TAFS THROUGH 20Z TODAY. REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...PREDOMINANT VFR CIGS CLEARING FROM WSW TO ENE. SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDS ENDING SHORTLY PER THE TAFS. TONIGHT...VFR WITH A LIGHT NW WIND. THURSDAY...VFR WITH DIURNAL SC IN THE AFTN. LIGHT N TO NW WIND. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING MVFR CEILINGS ON SATURDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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CDFNT AND RAIN APPROACHING FROM THE W. GOOD CAA BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT CURRENT THINKING IS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH THIS SURGE SO WILL OPT FOR AN MWS. HIGH PRES BUILD IN LATER TONIGHT INTO THU SO NO ADDITIONAL MARINE HEADLINES WILL BE ANTICIPATED. SEAS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE BY SATURDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SCA CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE COASTAL LOW ON SATURDAY.
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&& .EQUIPMENT...
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WFO STERLING WILL BE RESUMING NORMAL FORECASTING OPERATIONS LATER TODAY. 44065 BUOY HAS RETURNED TO SVC. 44009 WIND OTS AND NO SERVICE DATE FOR REPAIR AS YET.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GAINES/ WFO MOUNT HOLLY NEAR TERM...LN/ WFO MOUNT HOLLY SHORT TERM...LN/ WFO MOUNT HOLLY LONG TERM...GAINES/ WFO MOUNT HOLLY AVIATION... DRAG/ WFO MOUINT HOLLY MARINE...LN/WFO MOUNT HOLLY AND HTS/ADS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GAINES/ WFO MOUNT HOLLY EQUIPMENT...DRAG/GAINES WFO MOUNT HOLLY

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