Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 181433 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1033 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN IS REINFORCED TONIGHT AS PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...UNTIL LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY BEFORE AN UPPER LOW BRINGS COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND. BOTH FEATURES SHIFT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY EXCEEDING 70F IN SEVERAL PLACES. BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS TO LOW TO MID 80S GIVEN MAX SUNSHINE SCENARIO. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE GULF OF MAIN AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER NEW ENGLAND. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 40S...WITH 50S IN THE METROS AND NEAR THE BAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM OF NOTE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW ON SUNDAY. ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL TURN THE MID/UPPER FLOW TO THE SW. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN TO BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE SW DUE TO ISENTROPIC PROCESSES. THE TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE FASTER...BUT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN CENTRAL VA...AND AREAS NE OF DC MAY REMAIN DRY UNTIL EVENING. WHILE IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE AIRMASS TO SATURATE...MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE STRONG FROM GULF AND ATLANTIC TRAJECTORIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN THE SW TO MID 60S EAST. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... ACTIVE 24 HOUR PERIOD OF WEATHER STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST ROUND OF PCPN WILL BE STEADY RAIN MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS IS DEPICTED WELL ON BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...BRINING SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO THE AREA. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WILL BE LIMITED BY THE CLOUD COVER...BUT DESPITE THIS THE 00Z GFS IS STILL GIVING ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF CAPE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE FROPA. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN UPPER LOW OVER GREAT LAKES WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE LONG TERM AS SEVERAL VORT MAXES AROUND THE LOW WILL IMPACT THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NE US...GIVING UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW AVERAGE STARTING ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WIND WILL BE NORTHEAST TODAY...INCREASING 10 TO 15 KT TONIGHT...BECOMING EASTERLY ON SUNDAY AND INCREASING SLIGHTLY. MVFR CIGS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY IFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS FROM 00Z MON THROUGH 12 MON...IMPROVING MONDAY MORNING. && .MARINE... EXPECT LIGHT NLY/NELY WINDS TO CONTINUE TODAY...INCREASING NELY BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TONIGHT OVER THE WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE MONITOR NEED FOR AN SCA TONIGHT. HOWEVER WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST FOR SUNDAY...AND HAVE RAISED AN SCA FOR ALL WATERS BEGINNING AT 6 AM AS LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE CAROLINAS. EXPECTING TO SEE SCA WINDS FROM EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT MONDAY AS SHOWN BY BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND NAM BUFKIT PROFILES. && .EQUIPMENT... AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE TRANSMITTER SITE MONDAY. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530>543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BAJ/LEE NEAR TERM...BAJ/ADS SHORT TERM...LEE LONG TERM...LEE AVIATION...BAJ/ADS/LEE MARINE...BAJ/ADS/LEE EQUIPMENT...LWX

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