Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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836 FXUS61 KLWX 270049 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 849 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to drift east from the area through tonight. A cold front will cross the area Thursday evening. High pressure then builds over the area through Friday night. A secondary cold front crosses the area this weekend with high pressure then into at least the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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Warm frontal zone continues to lift northeastward across the region, with main surface front still back across WV and into the Ohio Valley. A few light returns on radar have been noted across northern Maryland, and while its mainly just mid level clouds, a few light sprinkles are possible this evening as initial band moves through. Otherwise, a mostly cloudy night expected for the region, with low level flow turning easterly and eventually south/southeasterly by morning. Most areas will remain dry through the night, however some light rain showers are possible in northern areas towards morning as precip breaks out in zone of warm air advection along strengthening warm front, although bulk of it should remain north across Pennsylvania. Lows will reach the 40s for most.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Low pressure develops as it moves east across the Upper Midwest tonight and the eastern Great Lakes Thursday. The associated cold front crosses the area Thursday evening with prefrontal rain showers crossing the area from the west from the late morning to the late afternoon. Likely PoPs were reserved for roughly north of the Potomac River where greater convergence occurs into the afternoon. Guidance consensus has activity developing/enhancing east of I-95 in the late afternoon/early evening. This could develop into a line with gusty showers for southern Maryland into the evening hours. Expect generally a quarter inch QPF north of the Potomac (maybe a tenth south) with perhaps half an inch for southern MD. Upslope rain showers look limited with likely PoPs decreasing to chance from afternoon to evening. Gusty winds accompany the cold front with an abrupt shift from south to west. Magnitude is generally 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Higher gusts possible in convective showers, particularly in southern MD. Max temps Thursday mid 50s along the Mason-Dixon, then low to mid 60s across the rest of the CWA. However, development of an in-situ cold air damming tonight would result in lower temperatures, particularly north. Gusty NW winds diminish into Friday morning as 1025mb surface high pressure builds directly overhead Friday evening. Temperatures near normal with maxima around 60F and minima around 40F (inland). && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Falling heights attempting to descend out of eastern Canada will be competing with a building ridge over the southeastern United States over the weekend and into much of next week. At the moment, it appears the ridge to the south will win out. This will result in a warmer and drier than normal pattern over the Mid-Atlantic. Over time, the ridging to the south begins to slowly retreat westward which may allow for falling heights and increasing precipitation chances by the second half of next week. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Generally VFR expected through the TAF period. However, a warm front developing over PA tonight and a cold front crossing Thursday evening brings a risk for showers and low ceilings. A light onshore flow develops across the area tonight, turning south and increasing with gusts around 20 knots Thursday. West, then northwest winds are expected behind the cold front. Showers may be gusty, around 30 knots particularly east from I-95. NW winds with gusts 20 knots into Friday morning before easing. High pressure overhead Friday evening. Mainly VFR expected over the weekend with southwesterly flow around 10 knots Saturday becoming westerly behind a frontal passage Saturday night into Sunday.
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&& .MARINE... High pressure is just east of the area with a light east winds developing. Wind shifts south overnight and increases ahead of a cold front that crosses Thursday evening. SCA begins at 7am for southern MD waters then expands at 10am for all waters with southerly channeling of 20 to 25 knots. The northward progression of winds may be slowed depending on the pressure pattern. Likely showers late Thursday afternoon/evening associated with the cold front. Strong gusts and special marine warnings possible with the showers. Wind shifts W then NW behind the cold front Thursday night with gusts around 25 kt into Friday morning. Tranquil Friday evening under high pressure. Southwesterly winds ahead of an approaching cold front Saturday will likely result in Small Craft Advisory level wind gusts over the waters. Winds should diminish by Sunday as the front stalls over or just south of the waters. && .CLIMATE... Baltimore-Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport (BWI) near Baltimore MD dropped to 32 degrees this morning, marking the first time since April 10th that the temperature has dropped to freezing (low on April 10 was 26 degrees). Washington Dulles International Airport (IAD) in northern Virginia dropped to 30 degrees, which is the first time the temperature has fallen below freezing there since April 14th (when the low was 31 degrees). Ronald Reagan National Airport near Washington DC (DCA) was 41 degrees this morning. Its last day at or below freezing was 31 degrees on April 10. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ530>532-535-536-538>542. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Thursday to 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ533-534-537-543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BAJ NEAR TERM...BAJ/MM SHORT TERM...BAJ LONG TERM...DFH AVIATION...BAJ/MM/DFH MARINE...BAJ/MM/DFH CLIMATE...DFH is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.