Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 281840 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 240 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. DRIER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR MIDWEEK... BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TODAY AND DEWPTS HAVE DROPPED TO THE 50S WITH A FEW LOW 60S NEAR THE BAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY HAS LED TO STRATO CU CONDITION ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WESTERLY FLOW. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS LED TO GUSTY W-NW WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE TONIGHT AND TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S LOW 50S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE NRN PIEDMONT AND SRN MD. A UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. NRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE BRINGING UNSEASONABLE COOL TEMPS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. FCST MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NEARS AND WINDS RELAX. FCST MIN TEMPS TUES NIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S IN THE MTNS TO THE UPPER 50S NEAR INTERSTATE 95. HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BARELY REACHING 80 DEG.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SETS UP WEAK RETURN FLOW FOR THURSDAY AS LARGE COLD-CORE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO HUDSON BAY CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. MARINE WEDGE LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AT THE SURFACE WHILE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DRAW IN MORE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WEAK VORTS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS POSITIVELY TILTED SHORE WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. ASSOCIATED WEAK COOL FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH OR STALL FROM 00 TO 12Z SUNDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL MAKE SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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GUSTY NW WINDS 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KTS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET WITH NW WINDS 5-10KTS OCCURING OVERNIGHT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE TERMINALS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS RELAX TUESDAY NIGHT AND PATCHY FOG MAY IMPACT CHO-MRB EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL DRAW IN WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT.
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&& .MARINE...
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A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY WHILE NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS PERSIST ON THE WATERS. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS TODAY. NRN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DROP LATE TONIGHT AS MIXING LESSENS ON THE SMALLER ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. NRLY WINDS 5-10 KTS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ON THE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL DRAW IN WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530- 531-535-536-538-539-542. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537- 540-541-543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAS NEAR TERM...HAS SHORT TERM...HAS LONG TERM...AEB AVIATION...HAS/AEB MARINE...HAS/AEB

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