Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 290042 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 842 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN WILL TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. FRIDAY...ANCHORING OFF THE COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE HEADING OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND. NLY FLOW WILL BECOME NELY FRIDAY MORNING AND BECOME ONSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THIS WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE HEADS OUT TO SEA SATURDAY WITH RETURN FLOW AIDED BY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA LATE SATURDAY WITH LOW CHANCE POPS WEST OF I-95. PVA AHEAD OF THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH BRINGS LIKELY POPS PIEDMONT AND WEST (HIGH CHANCES EAST) FOR SUNDAY. GULF MOISTURE PLUME OF 2 INCH PWATS AND ANY LINGERING BOUNDARIES OR TRAINING STORMS WOULD CAUSE FLOOD CONCERNS. INCREASED QPF FOR NOW. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO CONSIDER WORDING IN THE HWO. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AS HIGH PRESSURE STAYS ANCHORED TO THE EAST. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SWLY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MOVES OFF THE SE COAST. DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT. A LEE TROUGH WILL LIKELY SET UP AS WELL LEADING TO A MECHANISM TO INITIATE CONVECTION. THIS SETUP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE AND WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND OFFSHORE FRIDAY. ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT...BECOMING SLY SATURDAY NIGHT. WARM FRONT WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...THEN AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SUNDAY WITH GREATER COVERAGE AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS. DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK AS THE HOT/HUMID PATTERN CONTINUES.
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&& .MARINE...
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NO PROBLEMS FORESEEN ON THE WATERS OVRNGT OR FRI. NLY FLOW TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC...THEN ONSHORE TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. SLY RETURN FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER A WARM FRONT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK AS THE HOT/HUMID PATTERN CONTINUES.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...WOODY! PRVS...BAJ/CEM

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