Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KLWX 260056
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
856 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016
Ridge of high pressure will hold through the end of the week. Low
pressure may affect the region Memorial Day through Tuesday. Weak
high pressure builds for mid next week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Clouds will increase from the west tonight as moisture approaches
the Mid-Atlantic region. Showers across Western WV have been
dissapating as they approach the Appalachains however a stray
shower cant be ruled out across the highlands overnight.
Additional showers are possible Thu morning however forcing is
weak so coverage will likely be isolated to scattered.
Moisture increases from the west early Thu with showers likely
west of the Blue Ridge by afternoon. Developing lee-side trof in
the afternoon could result in scattered showers and t-storms
further east to the Chesapeake Bay. Mid-level cloud deck will
likely keep CAPE values down so no severe wx is expected. Sfc trof
shifts east Thu night with convection diminishing quickly with
sunset Thu night.
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Additional height rises are fcst for Fri which may limit t-storm
coverage, but heat and instability builds with 90F deg readings
possible and CAPE values rising over 1000 J/kg. Best convective
coverage appears to be over the southern Shenandoah valley over
the higher terrain with mainly hit and miss showers or t-storms
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Fairly nice weather for late May on Saturday, with temperatures
in the M80s, dewpoints in L/M60s, and a light southerly wind.
Warming temperatures aloft, associated with building heights,
expected to keep thunderstorm activity isolated and confined to
the higher terrain.
Predictability becomes muddled beginning Sunday. Guidance has slowed
with bringing precipitation into the area in advance of disturbance
developing off the southeast coast. This could keep most of the area
dry through the day Sunday. Precipitation chances increase into
early next week as disturbance approaches into a warm and moist
Regardless of rain timing, onshore flow will keep temperatures below
normal Sunday through midweek.
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Vfr conditions through 18Z Thu. Sct afternoon thunderstorms
expected Thu which may affect some of the terminals. Hit and miss
convection Fri afternoon.
VFR conditions Saturday. Potential for showers/thunderstorms
increase late Sunday evening into early next week with sub-VFR
S winds continue on the waters tonight through Thursday.
Possible SCA conditions Thu night over lower bay in
srly flow due to channelling.