Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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631 FXUS61 KLWX 011427 AAA AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1027 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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RAIN WILL EXIT THE FCST AREA BY 18Z BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WARM FRONT WILL GET HUNG UP IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FCST AREA. ENSEMBLE MEAN CAPE VALUES FROM SVRL MODELS INDICATE THE WRN PART OF THE FCST WILL HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA AND T-STORMS. ANY T-STORMS MOVING PAST THE BLUE RIDGE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO MUCH MORE STABLE AIR MASS. USED A 24-HR TREND FOR MAXT FROM ECMWF TODAY. THIS YIELDS THE SMALLEST 24-HR CHANGE FROM ANY MODELS. HIGHS AROUND 60F EASTERN AREAS AND IN THE LOW-MID 70S WRN AREAS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... LOPRES IN PA WL TRACK TWD NEW ENGLAND MON MRNG...WHICH WL PUSH A CDFNT THRU THE AREA. WL BE KEEPING POPS GOING FOR THE MRNG HRS. BELIEVE THERE SHUD BE SOME SUBSIDENCE IN WLY FLOW BHD FNT...AND WL ATTEMPT TO PRESERVE THE DRY PD /PT-MOSUNNY SKIES/ IN FCST. HWVR...THERE IS GREATER DOUBT AS TO HOW FAR SE THE FNT WL BE ABLE TO TRAVEL BEFORE STALLING OUT. WAVES OF WK LOPRES WL BE SHOOTING THRU THIS ZONE... SO THE FRNTL POSN WL BE CRITICAL. FIRST GOOD OPPORTUNITY OF SUCH COMES MON EVE. CONSEQUENTLY POPS HV BEEN RAISED FM PREV FCST. HV ALSO ADDED THUNDER IN LIGHT OF DAY 2 SPC OUTLK. HWVR...FCSTG SUCH IMPULSES MORE THAN A DAY IN ADVC CAN BE PROBLEMATIC AT TIMES...AND THUS HV A LWR OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN SOLN. ADDTL WAVES OF LOPRES CROSS AREA TUE-TUE NGT. ITS TOUGH TO PIN DOWN TIMING DETAILS IN THIS PTTN. THUS...ONLY BROAD STROKES WERE PLACED IN DATABASE. SHUD BE ABLE TO GET QUITE WARM MON IN WAKE OF FROPA PROVIDED CNVCTN HOLDS OFF. HV TAKEN THAT RTE IN MAXT GRID. THERE WL BE MUCH LESS OF A DIURNAL RANGE ONCE SHRA RTN. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE XTND FCST IS SOMEWHAT OF A BKN RECORD COURTESY OF THE UPR LVL PATTERN W/ A LARGE RDG/OMEGA BLOCK OVR THE ROCKIES AND A CLOSED LOW OVR THE NERN U.S. WED MAY BE THE BEST DAY OF THE XTND PD AS ONE LOW PULLS OUT TO THE NE FM THE MID ATLC...BUT THERE`LL STILL BE THE PSBLTY OF RW. HIGHS WED 65-70. AFTR THAT AN UPR LVL SHORT WV DIVES DOWN INTO THE ALREADY-PRSNT UPR LOW...CAUSING INTENSIFICATION AND THE LOW TO CUT OFF...BCMG STATIONARY OVR THE NERN U.S. THU-SAT. XTNSV CLD CVR W/ RW...HIGHS IN THE M60S..LOWS IN THE MU40S. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSISTING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHILE KMRB AND KCHO MAY SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR TO VFR LATER TODAY. THERE SHUD BE IMPRVMNT TAFTN AS RA DEPARTS...BUT QSTN WL BE HOW MUCH. DONT THINK IT/LL BE MUCH INVOF BWI /THEY STAY IN STBL WEDGE WITH PLENTY OF LLVL MSTR/...WHILE SUSPECT WE/LL REACH VFR /WARM SECTOR/ AT CHO. IN THAT WARM SECTOR...SCT TSRA MAY DVLP...WHICH WL STBLZ AS THEY HEAD NE. RESTRICTIONS WL CONT THRU TNGT. CFP MON MRNG. SHUD ACHIEVE VFR AFTER THAT POINT. HWVR...ADDTL SHRA /TSRA?/ MON NGT...WHICH WL CONT PERIODICALLY THRU TUE NGT. THESE MAY YIELD ADDTL FLGT RESTRICTIONS. VFR CONDS WED OUTSIDE OF RW WED...THEN OVC SKIES THU W/ RW...PSBLY DROPPING INTO MVFR RANGE.
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&& .MARINE... SE WINDS 10-15 KT ATTM...WHICH SHUD BE THE STORY FOR MUCH OF TDA. MAY SEE SOME VEERING S...SPCLY FOR MID BAY/LWR PTMC...BUT SPDS SHUD BE UNDER 10 KT. CFP MON...WHICH WL TRANSITION WIND TRAJ TO WLY...BUT FNT WEAK AND WONT CLEAR WATERS BY MUCH...SO DONT SUSPECT WE/LL SEE A SURGE BHD FNT. THUS...NO SCA ANTICIPATED THRU TUE. NO PROBS FORESEEN ON THE WATERS WED OR THU OTHER THAN RW. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LFR NEAR TERM...LFR SHORT TERM...HTS LONG TERM...ABW AVIATION...LFR/HTS/ABW MARINE...LFR/HTS/ABW

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