Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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997 FXUS61 KLWX 170130 AAA AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 930 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the Mid Atlantic tonight and hold through the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Skies are now clear across much of the fcst area except over Highland and Pendleton counties where sct-bkn clouds are still present. Model guidance show these disspipating after 07Z. Some bay-effect clouds are also possible over lower bay and lower St. Marys county as cold air moves over the warm waters of the bay. Pattern supports undercutting MOS. Utilizing a bias-corrected raw consensus, frost should be fairly widespread west of I-95 and the mountains of Highland/Pendleton/Grant Counties should achieve a freeze. Warnings/Advisories are in effect.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will be building over the Mid Atlantic though the period. There won`t be a lot of distinction between the days... each will be sunny, and clear at night. Temperatures will be a little below normal... more so Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, when more Frost/Freeze headlines are possible (where growing season lingers). Temperatures will be warmer Wednesday as the thermal trough exits. Accepted a blend for high temps, and using the bias-corrected consensus grids for lows. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Dry weather conditions are expected Thursday into Monday as surface high pressure is centered near or over our area. High pressure will begin to slowly move offshore on Saturday. A cold front approaches on Monday. High temperatures will be gradually increasing from the low 70s on Thursday to the upper 70s on Monday. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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VFR conditions will prevail for the next 5 days. Winds will diminish this evening.
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&& .MARINE...
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The gradient will be slow to relax, and mixing will be favorable well into the evening. In addition, winds 1000-2000 ft up will be better poised to mix over the warm waters compared to land. Therefore, current line-up of Advisories ending tonight or Tuesday morning look good. High pressure will move overhead for mid-late week, which will lead to lighter winds.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...None. MD...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for MDZ003>006- 501>503-505-507. VA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ025>031- 039-040-050-051-501-502-505-506. Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ503-504. WV...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for WVZ050>053- 055-503-504. Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT Tuesday for WVZ501-502-505-506. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ531>533- 539>542. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Tuesday for ANZ534-537-543. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ530-535- 536-538.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...LFR NEAR TERM...LFR SHORT TERM...HTS LONG TERM...IMR AVIATION...IMR/HTS MARINE...IMR/HTS

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