Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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047 FXUS61 KLWX 290130 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 930 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will continue to move southeast tonight and stall to the south by Wednesday morning. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. The next cold front crosses the area Saturday, stalling over the southern Mid-Atlantic Sunday and eventually pushing south Monday as high pressure builds in from the north. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH tonight/... Expanded the severe thunderstorm watch to the rest of the southeastern zones and most of the waters and extended until midnight. Balt- wash metro areas have been cancelled from the watch as expected. Overnight, the upper trough will move through and may promote isolated showers over the area. This will all be south of the area by daybreak. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The front should push far enough south on Wednesday and Wednesday night that dry weather will prevail across the forecast area, although there may be some clouds at times given mid-level troughing. Temperatures and humidity will be a notch lower. The boundary will return back north on Thursday and Thursday night as the high moves to the east. GFS continues to be the wettest model on Thursday, but there will be a return southerly flow, so will keep small POPs over southern parts of the CWA. Temperatures and humidity will creep back upward. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... An upper trough of low pressure and associated cold front at the surface will move across the region Friday and Friday night. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front. The timing and placement of precipitation development is uncertain at this time, but given bulk shear around 30 kt, a few stronger storms could occur. Unsettled conditions could linger through much of the weekend as the associated surface cold front lingers just to our south. Additional showers and thunderstorms could develop along this front Saturday through Sunday night. The next storm system will develop along the front at the western end of the Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday as the stalled front starts tracking northward as a warm front. The threat for showers and thunderstorms will be concentrated across central and southern Virginia by the end of the weekend. This shower and thunderstorm threat will then propagate north toward the Mason-Dixon line as the newly-formed storm system moves parallel to the Ohio Valley Monday through Tuesday. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A cold front will cross from the NW tonight with leading thunderstorms moving SE from DC metros. Depending on how quickly drier air arrives, there could be some fog, but did not feel confident enough to put in the TAFs. VFR in high pressure Wednesday and Wednesday night. Front returns north Thursday and Thursday night, although the probability of precipitation is low. MVFR or IFR conditions possible at times Friday through the weekend with showers and thunderstorms. Winds southwest to west 5 to 10 knots Friday and Friday night. && .MARINE... Ongoing thunderstorms for southern MD waters. Cold Front pushes south Wednesday and returns north late this week, with a cold front being slow to push into the area this weekend. In general, sub-SCA conditions expected. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BAJ/ADS NEAR TERM...BAJ/ADS SHORT TERM...ADS LONG TERM...KLW AVIATION...BAJ/ADS/KLW MARINE...BAJ/ADS/KLW is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.