Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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901 FXUS61 KLWX 290800 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 400 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS...
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A decaying cold front will drop southward into the area today. A stronger cold front will move through the area on Tuesday. High pressure will build in for the middle to end of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Skies are mostly clear this morning, with just some scattered high clouds passing through aloft. Patchy fog has started to form in spots, but overall coverage isn`t high. Any fog will quickly burn off after sunrise. A decaying cold front (really more a wind shift) will drop southward into area today. Temperatures will remain similar to yesterday behind the front, but some subtle drying may occur at low-levels across northern Maryland by afternoon. The majority of the area will remain in a very humid, moisture-laden airmass however, with precipitable water values near 2 inches. Showers and thunderstorms will form within the warm and humid airmass this afternoon in response to daytime heating. CAMs suggest that initial development of storms will likely occur during the early to mid afternoon hours in the Shenandoah Valley, and also along bay/river breezes further east. While instability will be plentiful (around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE), steering flow will be weak (around 10-15 knots of westerly flow in the mid-levels). As a result, storm motions will be somewhat chaotic, and largely driven by outflow boundaries today. Outflows from storms to the west of the Blue Ridge may eventually meet up with outflows from bay/river breeze storms by later this afternoon into this evening. With the somewhat chaotic storm motions, it`s difficult to time the storms in any one given location, with a general risk for thunderstorms throughout much of the area during the afternoon and evening hours. In terms of hazards, storms today will be capable of producing localized wet microbursts and heavy rainfall. The lack of an obvious surface feature to focus convergence should limit the potential for flash flooding, although an isolated instance or two can`t be ruled out. Both SPC and WPC have much of the area outlooked in Marginal Risks today. Storms should gradually wind down through the late evening/early overnight hours, with dry conditions expected during the second half of the night. Some patchy fog also try to form prior to daybreak. Low temperatures will generally be in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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A very similar warm and humid airmass will remain in place across the area tomorrow. Temperatures will once again climb into the upper 80s to around 90, with showers and thunderstorms forming in response to daytime heating during the afternoon hours. Model soundings show slightly greater instability (closer to 3000 than 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE), and slightly stronger mid- level flow (around 15-20 knots), with continued deep near-saturation and modest DCAPE values (500-800 J/kg). As a result, storms may show slightly more organization, especially across northwestern portions of the forecast area, where they`ll be closer to an approaching upper trough moving in from the Great Lakes. Both SPC and WPC once again have the bulk of the area outlooked in Marginal Risks. The aforementioned upper trough will progress further east on Tuesday as a seasonably strong area of low pressure tracks across Quebec. A trailing cold front will approach the area from the northwest during the day Tuesday, before eventually moving through Tuesday night. Showers and thunderstorm are expected to form along a pre-frontal trough Tuesday afternoon and move through the area from west to east. With flow aloft increasing as the upper trough approaches, storms on Tuesday should be better organized, and could potentially pose a greater threat for damaging winds compared to today and tomorrow. Isolated instances of flash flooding can`t be ruled out as well.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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An upper-level trough will remain in place for Wednesday and Thursday with surface high pressure nearby. A west to northwest flow at the low and mid-levels will allow for dry conditions for this time of year. Therefore, the probability for convection will be low along with seasonable temperatures and relatively lower humidity. The upper-level trough will most likely depart while the subtropical ridge builds closer to the area for Friday through Sunday. With the ridge building overhead, this will keep the probability for convection to be low with plenty of sunshine each day. A warming trend in temperatures is expected due to the stronger subsidence, especially for Saturday and Sunday with temperatures most likely in the 90s. For the Fourth of July, the most likely scenario is for a seasonably warm day with sunshine and a low chance for convection. However, this will continue to be monitored since it is several days out.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Patchy fog is starting to develop across the area early this morning, and could potentially impact some of the terminals briefly prior to sunrise. Any fog will quickly burn off after sunrise, with prevailing VFR conditions expected through the day. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible on and off through the afternoon and evening. In the absence of any well- defined surface features, storm movement will mainly be driven by outflows, and as a result timing the storm at any given terminal is difficult at this point. Have maintained longer PROB30 groups with -TSRA at most of the terminals until confidence in timing increases further. Showers and thunderstorms should wind down prior to midnight, with quiet conditions expected overnight. Some patchy fog may be possible again tonight, especially in areas that receive rain during the daylight hours. Prevailing VFR conditions will continue through Monday and Tuesday, with chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Areal coverage of storms should be greatest on Tuesday as a cold front approaches from the north and west. Winds will be light out of the northwest today, before turning out of the south tomorrow, and then southwest on Tuesday. VFR conditions are most likely for Wednesday and Thursday with high pressure nearby.
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&& .MARINE...
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Light and variable winds are expected over the waters today. Winds will become southerly tomorrow, and then southwesterly on Tuesday. Winds may reach low-end SCA levels Monday into the day Tuesday. SMWs associated with showers and thunderstorms may be possible each afternoon and evening through Tuesday. High pressure will remain near the waters for Wednesday and Thursday. Winds are most likely to be below SCA criteria.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Several sites will reach Action stage with the tidal cycle this morning. Thereafter, anomalies are expected to drop, with no tidal flooding concerns over the next couple days.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJP NEAR TERM...KJP SHORT TERM...KJP LONG TERM...BJL AVIATION...BJL/KJP MARINE...BJL/KJP TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KJP