Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 131848 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 148 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will return tonight through Wednesday. A weak cold front will cross the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning with high pressure moving back in for Friday. A stronger cold front will cross the area Saturday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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High pressure will build over the area again tonight. Skies will continue to clear east of the mountains as drier advects in, the only exception will be over the Appalachians where clouds will persist all night. Along the Chesapeake Bay, clouds will stick around through this evening but should dissipate after midnight. Lows tonight near climo in the mid 30s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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High pressure will hold over the area Tue into Wed. A weak cold front will cross the area late Wed night into Thu morning bringing sct showers as far east as the Rt 15 corridor. Temperatures will continue to warm a bit more into the mid 50s Tue and Wed.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Relatively active pattern expected for the latter part of this week and into the weekend with the most impactful weather likely to be Saturday. Weak cold front anticipated to be passing through the area early Thursday morning with the potential for a few rain showers, but the majority of the day should end up dry. This will be followed by high pressure and calm weather for Thursday night and Friday. Temperatures should be within a few degrees of climatological normals Thursday/Friday. A potent low pressure system is then projected to move through the Great Lakes region Friday night into Saturday. This will bring strong southwest flow to the area out ahead of the front before the attendant cold front sweeps across the region sometime during the day, although model differences still exist on timing of frontal passage. This will bring increased chances of rain and gusty winds, in addition to a non-zero threat of convective activity. Temperatures will be near to somewhat above climo normals ahead of the front. Following the frontal passage, there will be gusty west to northwest flow with colder temperatures and the potential for upslope snow showers along the Allegheny Front and nearby higher elevations Sunday and Sunday night.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Clouds will continue to gradually dissipate with clear skies tonight. No fog is anticipated except perhaps at KCHO where 3-5sm br is possible. Primarily VFR expected Thursday through Friday night as high pressure builds into the area. Potential then exists for sub-VFR conditions and gusty winds/low level wind shear Saturday as a strong cold frontal system crosses the region.
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&& .MARINE...
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Winds will strengthen this afternoon and tonight with SCA gusts possible over the middle and southern waters, so issued a SCA. Winds will diminsh Wed and Wed night. SCA gusts likely behind a departing cold front Thursday into Thursday evening before high pressure brings lighter winds later Thursday night and Friday. Winds will increase markedly with an approaching frontal system Friday night and Saturday with SCA likely and gale possible.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ531>533-537-539>541. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ534-543.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...LFR NEAR TERM...LFR SHORT TERM...LFR LONG TERM...MM AVIATION...MM/LFR MARINE...MM/LFR

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