Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 280931 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 531 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...ANCHORING OFF THE COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MID-ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... AT 06Z...COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR I-66 BISECTING THE CWA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAD ALREADY DISSIPATED AND ALL THAT/S LEFT WAS MID CLOUDS NEAR THE BOUNDARY. WINDS WERE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGH SUNRISE. THIS MORNING MAY START WITH SOME CLOUDS PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA BUT AS DRYING OCCURS BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECT SUNSHINE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. POPULATED MAXT USING AN EQUAL BLEND OF BCADJMAV AND BCSREFS YIELDING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FRONT SINKS SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THEN PUSHES OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TONIGHT...LEVELLING OFF FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S BEFORE LIKELY STARTING TO INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING. RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY. ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT MAY BE SOME MORE CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES IN ALOFT OVERNIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND FCST MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS WARM FRONT CROSSES. COVERAGE WILL BE ISO-SCT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AS HIGH PRESSURE STAYS ANCHORED TO THE EAST. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SWLY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MOVES OFF THE SE COAST. DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A LEE TROUGH WILL LIKELY SET UP AS WELL LEADING TO A MECHANISM TO INITIATE CONVECTION. THIS SETUP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WIND SHIFT TO NW HAD ALREADY OCCURRED ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT CHO AS OF 06Z DUE TO A FRONTAL PASSAGE. CHO FOLLOWS SUIT BY 08-09Z. NW WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 15 KT INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO LESS WIND OVERNIGHT...THEN AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST WINDS BECOME SE ON FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS STARTING NEXT WEEK WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS MAY CAUSE VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS. && .MARINE...
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RAISED SCA FOR MUCH OF THE MD CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. N/NW WINDS BEHIND FRONT HAVE GUSTED IN THE 18-20 KT RANGE IN A FEW SPOTS AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO MID MORNING. PREV... WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON NW WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. 10 TO 15 KT IS LIKELY...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH REGARD TO WINDS REACHING SCA THRESHOLDS BUT CHANCE IS NOT ZERO EITHER. GRADIENT IS WEAKER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY SUNDAY IN BREEZY PREFRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ531>534-537>543.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BPP/HAS NEAR TERM...BPP SHORT TERM...HAS LONG TERM...HAS AVIATION...BPP/HAS MARINE...BPP/HAS

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