Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 020127 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 927 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL TUESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEARBY ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING AWAY FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... SFC TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN MD THIS EVENING...MORE OR LESS COINCIDENT WHERE THICKER CLOUD COVER STILL RESIDES. AS OF 01Z...THE ISOLATED SHOWERS WHICH DEVELOPED HAVE CROSSED THE BAY. GIVEN THESE WERE LIKELY AIDED BY DIURNAL INSTBY...MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE THE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT DESPITE IT TAKING SOME TIME FOR THE TROUGH TO PUSH EAST. DRIER AIR (DEW POINTS IN MID 50S) HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME PUSHING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THAT COULD PLAY A ROLE IN HOW MUCH FOG DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL VA PIEDMONT LATER TONIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THIS UNCERTAINTY...FOG SHOULD BE PATCHY AND RELEGATED TO THE TYPICAL RURAL LOW LYING SPOTS. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S...EXCEPT LOWER 70S IN URBAN CENTERS AND 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS THROUGH SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A LACK OF PRECIPITATION. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AGAIN BUT DEW POINTS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S SO OVERALL...SUNDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MORE COMFORTABLE THAN TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THOUGH DEW POINTS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP BACK UP. PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN IN THE SHELTERED INLAND LOCALES AWAY FROM THE METRO WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE DEW POINT. WITH THE RISING DEW POINTS...LOWS SHOULD END UP A BIT MILDER THAN TONIGHT. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE QUITE HOT WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY AND 850 MB TEMPS INCREASING TO 19- 22 C. IT WILL BE THE FIRST DAY WITH APPRECIABLE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SO EXPECT DEW POINTS TO REMAIN IN THE 60S...LEADING TO APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY...ALONG WITH AN UPPER JET MAX AROUND 250 MB. THINKING THIS WILL FIRE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...PROPAGATING INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS DURING THE EVENING. MOST GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MODERATE CAPE AND SHORTWAVE FORCING...AS WELL AS MODEST SHEAR OVER THESE AREAS. AS SUCH...SPC HAS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON DAY 3/MONDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS/CHANCE THUNDER OVER THE HIGHLANDS IN THE EVENING...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF AS ACTIVITY MOVES EAST AND DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A POP UP THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN A ZONE OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF LEE SIDE PRESSURE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MD/BALTIMORE METRO AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE ISOLATED POPS FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL. TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW /DOWNSLOPING/ TAKES OVER ON TUESDAY AND WITH NO REAL FORCING MECHANISM EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO BE PRETTY MINIMAL...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE IF THE FRONT STALLS FURTHER NORTH /KEEPING LOW-LEVEL WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY AND MOIST/. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... MEAN TROUGHING ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE AREA. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES...BUT PINPOINTING THE EXACT TIMING AT THIS TIME RANGE IS DIFFICULT AT BEST. GEFS/EC MEAN SEEMS TO WANT TO HIGHLIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGHER POPS AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...BUT TIMING/PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF SAID WAVE ARE ALL IN QUESTION. THE PATTERN PERSISTS BUT WITH EVEN LESSER CERTAINTY IN DETAILS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SFC TROUGH HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE WITH FEW IF ANY CLOUDS (DIURNAL CU BASE OF 5-6 KFT) AND SUSTAINED WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. HAVE MAINTAINED A MENTION OF MVFR BR AT KCHO LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AND COULD DEPEND ON HOW MUCH DRY AIR CAN FILTER IN. THERE IS A CHANCE OF FOG AT THE INLAND TERMINALS AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY FAVORABLE. GENERALLY REMAINING VFR MON-WED...BUT SUB-VFR POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR MRB/CHO MON EVE...INITIALLY IN SHRA/SCTD TSRA...THEN LWR VSBYS PSBL OVERNIGHT IN PATCHY FOG AS WINDS LIGHTEN W/ FRONT OVERHEAD. SLY WINDS 10-15 KT MON BECOME WLY MON NIGHT-TUE AOB 10 KT. WIND FORECAST BECOMES UNCERTAIN BY WED AND DEPENDS ON POSITIONING OF FRONT/APPROACHING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. && .MARINE... HAVE SEEN A LITTLE UPTICK IN WINDS THIS EVENING AS A PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES THE BAY...HOWEVER GUSTS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN 18 KT. IF THERE WERE A STRAY GUST HIGHER THAN THAT...IT WOULD LIKELY OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE LOW PROB AND SHORT TIME FRAME...WILL NOT ISSUE A SCA. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SCA GUSTS LOOK LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT IN SOUTHERLY CHANNELING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT/LEE SIDE PRESSURE TROUGH. GRADIENT WEAKENS AS FRONT MOVES OVERHEAD AND WINDS TURN WESTERLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGHER DUE TO THE NEARLY-FULL MOON...BUT ANOMALIES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT TIDAL FLOODING WILL NOT BE A THREAT THROUGH SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL ELEVATE TIDES ON MONDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTING MINOR FLOODING. THIS POSSIBILITY WILL REQUIRE MONITORING HOWEVER. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RCM NEAR TERM...ADS/RCM SHORT TERM...RCM/DFH LONG TERM...DFH AVIATION...ADS/DFH MARINE...ADS/RCM/DFH TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADS/RCM

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