Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 111420 AAA AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1020 AM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A warm front will lift north towards the region today. A cold front will approach the region from the northwest Saturday, then stall south of the area Sunday. A wave of low pressure may move along the stalled front early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Mostly cloudy skies currently present except in northeast MD where skies currently clear. NSSL WRF-ARW synthetic imagery shows substantial breaks developing in the afternoon to help destabilize atmosphere. Widespread showers and t-storms expected especially west. 0-6km shear values around 35kt could support some severe storms with mainly damaging winds. Activity could linger well into the night especially along the bay. Nocturnal decrease in precip is slowed by continued moist southwesterly flow. Min temps upper 60s inland to around 70F nearshore.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Cold front approaches Saturday warranting categorical PoPs across much of the area. MLCAPE up to 1000 j/kg with chances for thunder across the area. Dewpoints low 70s make for a much more humid day than today. Latest consensus of GFS/NAM/ECMWF is for the cold front to cross the area Saturday night and cutoff PoPs by midnight. Cold front persists south of the area through Sunday night with PoPs removed accordingly through this time. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... We will be into the mid part of August during the extended part of this forecast. The high heat remains at bay for next week - 80s for high temperatures all week. The upper level air flow will be in a general zonal pattern. A short wave is expected to push through the northeastern US Tuesday night. This will give Tuesday/into the overnight hours the best potential time for precipitation, although 30-40 PoP is all that can be warranted for now. Wednesday/Thursday look dry as weak ridging moves over the Mid Atlantic. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Rain with embedded scattered thunderstorms today and Saturday across the DC metros before a cold front crosses Saturday night. Tranquil/VFR behind the cold front Sunday. VFR conditions expected Monday. There will be a potential for degraded ceilings Tuesday. && .MARINE... South flow generally 15 knots today and Saturday ahead of a cold front that crosses Saturday night. Will need to look out for SCA NWly gusts Saturday night into Sunday. Winds are expected to remain below SCA values Monday. Showers/thunderstorms possible Tuesday. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ Update...LFR Products...BAJ/WOODY!

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