Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 260037 AAA AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 837 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build overhead through Sunday. High pressure will move off the coast Sunday night. A cold front will move through the region late Tuesday into Tuesday night. The boundary will remain nearby during the middle and latter portions of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Tranquil weather under building high pressure. Lows around 60 except upper 60s near the water. Stellar day again tomorrow with plenty of sunshine and low humidities. Moisture returns Mon for a risk of showers and t-storms.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... No rain chances Sunday or Sunday night as high pressure controls the weather in the Mid Atlantic. Highs in the mid 80s will be a degree or two below climo norms. Sunday night will see lows around 60 with the exception of the warmer cities. High pressure continues to control weather in the NE US Monday morning. An approaching cold front...something not always seen at this time of year..will moving into WV Monday afternoon. This may serve as a trigger for thunserstorms in the western part of the forecast area. SPC has placed the western 1/2 of the area in a marginal risk. CAPEs are not overly impressive in model soundings... nor is the wind field. At the moment pulse severe seems the most likely. With the boundary slowly migrating across the area Monday night there will be chances for thnderstorms Monday night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Given the time of year it wouldn`t surprise me if the cold front slated to pass through the region Monday night got hung up over the eastern half of the area. The upper-level jet will be a little stronger so any convection that fires will have some shear to work with on Tuesday. The ECMWF actually keeps the front stalled over the area through Wednesday. Whenever the front slides offshore/weakens, high pressure and seasonably cooler temperatures will follow in its wake and likely persist through the end of the week. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR conditions expected through the evening hours. Light pre-dawn fog will be possible at MRB..and CHO. No problems expected at airports Sunday through Monday morning. Showers/thunderstorms possible later Monday afternoon and night. Sub-VFR possible in any scattered showers or thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday (depends if the cold front clears the area or not). Winds ahead of the front will be southerly around 10 knots, then become westerly sometime Wednesday after the front passes.
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&& .MARINE... Winds expected to remain below SCA values through Monday. Thunderstorms will be possible Monday evening/night on the waters. Southerly channeling with Small Craft Advisory level wind gusts will remain possible as long as the cold front remains to the west of the area Tuesday into Wednesday. A period of westerly winds gusting to Small Craft Advisory levels are possible behind the front as well. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ABW NEAR TERM...LFR SHORT TERM...ABW LONG TERM...DFH AVIATION...LFR MARINE...LFR/ABW

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