Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 210136 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 836 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL TRACK NORTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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AT 01Z...COLD FRONT HAD MOVED THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA AND LOOKED TO BE STRETCHED FROM ST MARYS COUNTY MD BACK THROUGH CENTRAL VA. NORTHWEST WINDS WERE OBSERVED BEHIND THE FRONT...OCCASIONALLY GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT BUT SOME WIND /10 MPH/ WILL CONTINUE GIVEN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. MUCH OF THE CWA SHOULD BE CLEAR...BUT EXPECT SOME CLOUDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND THEN SOME OROGRAPHIC INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVERNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE HIGH AND LEAD TO NWLY WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON. FCST MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE DC METRO AND PIEDMONT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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1ST PART OF THE XTND IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD. HIGH PRES OVR THE AREA FRI NGT INTO THE 1ST PART OF SUNDAY. ANOTHER CHILLY NGT FRI W/ LOWS IN THE U TEENS MUCH OF THE AREA...A10 IN THE HIGHLANDS...M20S IN THE CITIES. SAT SHOULD FEATURE LGT WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES W/ HIGH PRES OVRHD. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE U40S. NO PROBS SAT NGT EITHER. A LTL WARMER THAN FRI NGT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. LOWS A30..COOLER IN THE HIGHLANDS...WARMER IN THE CITIES. THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN LOOKS TO BE SUN AFTN. HIGH PRES WL HV MOVED WELL OFFSHORE. UPR LVL SHORT WV/LOWS PRES WL BE DVLPG IN THE GULF STATES AND TRACKING NE. CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS AFTR MIDDAY W/ CHCS FOR PCPN INCRSG FM S TO N AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES. BEST CHC FOR RA WL BE SUN NGT. HIGHS SUN IN THE 50S...LOWS SUN NGT ONLY ABT TEN DEGS COOLER. AFTR THE WARM FNT PUSHES N MON SHOULD BE A WARMER DAY W/ HIGHS REACHING THE 60S...PSBLY L70S. THIS WL BE SHORT LIVED AS A COLD FNT WL PUSH BACK INTO THE MID ATLC MON NGT. THIS WL BE THE 1ST FCST W/ THNKSGVG MENTIONED IN IT. BIG DIFFERENCE BTWN THE GFS AND ECE - GFS PORTRAYS A LARGE TROF OVR THE ERN US WHILE GFS SHOWS A MORE ZNL FLOW W/ A DEPARTING SFC HIGH OVR THE MID ATLC. STAY TUNED.
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&& .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE TERMINALS...RESULTING IN WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. STILL HAVE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TIL MIDNIGHT OR SO...THEN GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE BECOMING PREVALENT AGAIN BY LATE MORNING FRIDAY. IN THE XTND - VFR COND XPCTD FRI NGT THRU 1ST PART OF SUNDAY. LOW PRES WL BE TRACKING OUT OF THE GULF STATES SUN AFTN. SUB VFR CONDS ARE PSBL SUN NGT. RW PSBL MON AHEAD OF A CD FNT. GUSTY W WINDS PSBL TUE BEHIND THE FNT.
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&& .MARINE...
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AT 01Z...COLD FRONT STILL HADN/T CROSSED THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT WILL WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING SCA CONDITIONS...WITH GUSTS AOA 25 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE MAIN CHANNEL OF THE BAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST FRIDAY AND SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. GOOD CONDS ON THE WATERS FRI NGT THRU SAT NGT. SCA LVL WINDS PSBL SUN..THEN LKLY MON AHEAD OF A CD FNT AND AFTR THE FNT MOVES THRU MON NGT.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>543. && $$ BPP/HAS/WOODY!/CEM

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