Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 241400 AAA AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1000 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER INDIANA WILL BUILD ONTO THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY AND SPIN OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE...A REINFORCING UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST TO END NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL CAUSE BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE BREEZY WINDS AND DRY RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CREATE AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRES TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY WITH AFTERNOON READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC TONIGHT.TIMING OF THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING HOW COLD TEMPERATURES WILL GET OVERNIGHT. FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC METRO AREAS. FROST WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN GIVEN THE EXPECTED DECOUPLED WINDS. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST WITH RETURN FLOW WILL MOISTEN THE RATHER DRY CONDITIONS. WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA WITH RAIN LIKELY BREAKING OUT FOR ALL BUT NERN MD THROUGH THE DAY. QPF GENERALLY QUARTER INCH OR LESS FOR THE DAYTIME. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THIS IS CERTAINLY AN OUT-OF-THE-ORDINARY PTTN FOR THE END OF APR. AVG HIGH/LOW FOR END OF APR SHOULD BE A70/M40S...AND IT`S NOT LOOKING LK WE`LL SEE TOO MANY DAYS IN THE NEXT WK W/ HIGHS THAT WARM. AND THE REASON BEHIND THIS WL BE THE CONTINUED DOMINANCE OF THE UPR LVL LOW OVR THE NERN U.S. IT`S LOOKING LK SUNDAY WL BE A COOL CLDY DAY W/ PDS OF RAIN. THIS LOW WL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE DURG THE 1ST PART OF THE WK...ALLOWING WK HIGH PRES INTO THE MID ALTC. SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO APRCH NORMS. BUT ANYTHING RESEMBLING A "NRML" SPRING SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS LATE NEXT WK IT APPEARS LOW PRES TRACKING NE OUT OF THE GULF STATES WL BE MERGING W/ ANOTHER UPR LVL LOW TRACKING NE OUT OF CANADA...SETTING UP ANOTHER VORTEX OVR NEW ENGLAND WHICH WL BE BRINGING COOL MOIST AIR INTO THE MID ATLC FOR NEXT FRI - THE 1ST DAY OF MAY LOOKING LK A CONTINUATION OF THE COOL SPRING WE`VE BEEN XPRCNG SO FAR. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES SUNDAY. NWLY FLOW GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT TODAY...EASING TONIGHT WITH FROST POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY. AIR MOISTENS SATURDAY WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. XTNSV CLD CVR XPCTD SAT NGT INTO SUN WL KEEP CONDS IN THE MVFR RANGE. CONDS SHOULD IMPRV ERLY IN THE NEW WK. && .MARINE... SCA FOR ALL WATERS UNTIL 8PM AS NWLY FLOW IS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT TODAY DUE TO LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MAINE. SCA CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR MAIN MD PARTS OF THE BAY DUE TO CONTINUED NWLY/NLY CHANNELING. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MIDWEST SATURDAY WITH LIGHT FLOW SLOWLY BECOMING SLY. SCA LVL WINDS MAY BE PSBL SUN AND MON. && .FIRE WEATHER... PER COORDINATION WITH AREA FIRE PLANNERS AND WFO`S...HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE MID 20S BY MID AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET AND THE ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL END. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR MDZ003>006-503-505-507-508. VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR VAZ025>031-505-507-508. WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR WVZ051>053. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ531-532- 539>541. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535- 536-538-542. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ533-534- 537-543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ530. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KRW NEAR TERM...KRW SHORT TERM...BAJ/ABW LONG TERM...ABW AVIATION...KRW/ABW MARINE...KRW/ABW FIRE WEATHER...KRW

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