Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 260106 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 906 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A backdoor cold front will move into the outlook area this evening and stall just south of the area overnight and Sunday before returning north as a warm front on Monday. Another cold front will cross the area late Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A backdoor cold front is located across Central PA this evening. High pressure south of Hudson Bay will move to the southeast and into northern New England tonight. This will help push the cold front southward into the Mid-Atlantic resulting in an airmass change Sunday morning. E-NE winds will usher in cool and damp conditions from north to south Sunday morning resulting in a much different day from today. Iso-sct showers are possible overnight as a moist airmass stays in place and backdoor cold front moves southward. Clouds will increase and lower this evening mainly from north to south. Light rain and patchy drizzle are possible Sunday as the boundary layer moistens. Much cooler conditions expected across much of the outlook area Sunday. Temps will range from the 40s across northeast MD to the low-mid 60s across the Central VA. There is uncertainty in the temperature forecast for Sunday as the backdoor cold front will dictate the high temperatures. Prev discussion... Much better chance for showers Sun night in area of strong surface and moisture convergence and warm air overrunning cool surface air. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Front lifts north as a warm front Mon afternoon with temperatures rising back into the 70s. Area will be in a light westerly downslope flow leading to some clearing. Risk of showers increases again late Mon night and Tue as low pressure and associated cdfnt crosses the area. Enough instability is also present on Tue for a risk of t-storms. Drying expected late Tue night behind fropa. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Front approaches from the west on Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms possible. Conditions should start drying out early on Wednesday as high pressure builds over our region. Dry conditions continue into Thursday before a wave of low pressure moves through the Mid- Atlantic increasing PoPs Thursday night and into Friday. Another low pressure moves east towards the Mid- Atlantic Friday night into Saturday keeping rainy conditions over our region. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Cigs will drop this evening and become IFR across the terminals except KCHO by Sunday morning. Cigs will remain low Sunday. Cigs may lift to MVFR Sunday afternoon but confidence is low and cigs may stay IFR through the day. Cigs will drop to IFR/LIFR Sunday night. Winds become E-NE tonight and Sunday. Showers expected Sun night everywhere. Cold front approaches on Tuesday, then dry conditions return Wednesday into Thursday. Sub-VFR periods possible Tuesday into Tuesday night, then VFR Wednesday into Thursday. && .MARINE... Winds will strengthen across the upper Chesapeake Bay late this evening behind backdoor front. Winds remain gusty across the nrn waters and upper Potomac river through Sun. Winds then increase again Sun night across the southern waters with SCA Mon and Mon night. Cold front approaches on Tuesday, then dry conditions return Wednesday into Thursday. Winds are expected to remain below the small craft advisory threshold. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ530>532-535- 538>540. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ533- 536-541-542. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LFR NEAR TERM...HSK/LFR SHORT TERM...LFR LONG TERM...IMR AVIATION...HSK/IMR/LFR MARINE...HSK/IMR/LFR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.