Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 141315 AAA AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 815 AM EST Sat Jan 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front is positioned over southern Virginia. A large area of high pressure is moving into northern New York state. The front will remain to our south before returning north as a warm front Tuesday. A weak cold front will push through the area Wednesday. High pressure looks to be in control of the weather late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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High pressure will begin to shift east of the area later today. Sfc winds have turned from the E and ESE and sfc temperatures remain above freezing in areas around the Capital Beltway and Baltimore. Wet-bulb cooling could bring down air temperatures down a couple of degs, but with road temperatures in the 40s have cancelled the winter wx advisories around DC and Anne Arundel county. Sleet will be the predominant p-type over northern areas through the morning hours, with freezing rain mainly over the higher elevs (i.e. Blue Ridge and Potomac Highlands) where 12Z IAD sounding shows a sub-freezing layer between 1200-4000 ft. Additional warming aloft is expected to occur by afternoon with fzra or rain expected to be dominant p-type depending on sfc temperatures. Will continue to monitor obs and ajust fcst as necessary.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Reinforcing high pressure should break the wedge tonight with dry NWly flow ending precip this evening. Therefore, no extension to the headlines have been made yet. A warm front lifts into the area Sunday night with low chances of mainly rain over the SWrn half of the CWA. High pressure shifts offshore Monday with a return southerly flow developing, beginning a warming trend. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... We are approaching what is climatologically the coldest time of the year...but there really isn`t any signal that implies cold air is coming our way. The front which is currently analyzed as being over southern Virginia looks to remain in the Carolinas over the next few days before pushing to the north Tuesday as a warm front in response to a short wave moving through the Mississippi Valley. This will bring about a chance for rainshowers. Highs are expected to be in the 50s. The short wave and an attendant cold front will push through the area Wednesday. Another chance for showers. Depending on the time of the fropa Wednesday could see 60 degrees. After the front passes through Mid Atlantic looks to be under high pressure through Friday. Highs in the 50s...lows around 40. The average temperatures for this time of year are lows 40s for highs...mid 20s for lows. && .AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MVFR conds developing across the DC metros with IFR cigs likely as cold air damming enhances over the area. A wintry mix through sunrise with mainly light freezing rain then through the rest of the morning hours across the DC metros. Temperatures remain low through the afternoon before precip tapers off tonight. Warm front brings low chances for rain west of the DC metros Sunday night, the high pressure develops with VFR conds Monday. Rain showers are possible Tuesday through Wednesday. Brief MVFR periods will be possible as well. && .MARINE... Light north winds shift onshore today. Light NW flow tonight through Sunday, then southerly flow Monday as high pressure moves offshore. This is expected to all be below SCA levels. Winds expected to remain below SCA criteria Tuesday and Wednesday. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...None. MD...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for MDZ003>006-011-501>503-505>508. VA...Freezing Rain Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for VAZ025- 026-503-504-507-508. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for VAZ027>031-040-501-505. WV...Freezing Rain Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for WVZ501- 505-506. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for WVZ050>053-055-502>504. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ Update...LFR Products...BAJ/Woody!

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