Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 160210 AAA AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 910 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds overhead through Friday and then remains nearby into early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Snow showers have begun to increase in coverage and intensity across the Potomac highlands and western MD. Mid-level lapse rates will continue to steepen rest of this evening as upper trough and associated cold pool aloft move across the area with best snowfall rates expected through 06Z. After 06Z, low-level water vapor (7.3 micron) synthetic imagery from NSSL WRF-ARW and model soundings indicate increasing drying and lowering inversions. Fcst Froude numbers from 18Z NAM suggest streamers may make it east of the Blue Ridge with flurries possible. Brisk on Thu with gusts up to about 30 kts.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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High pressure briefly moves overhead Thu night resulting in a cool night with temperatures in the 20s. Another shortwave trough will drop west of the region into Friday and clouds will likely increase across the region Friday. Temps will rise back to normal Friday afternoon.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A low pressure system over the Southeast U.S. will gradually spread some moisture northward into the mid-Atlantic region Saturday. There is a slight chance of rain showers Saturday night in association with the advecting moisture. High pressure will build into the region Sunday through Tuesday. Dry conditions and mild temperatures will evolve during this stretch of time. By late Tuesday and Tuesday night, a cold front should sag across the region and then stall overhead Wednesday. There is a chance for rain showers later in the afternoon Tuesday, Tuesday night and Wednesday in association with the front. Temperatures will be seasonable. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Gusty winds will likely persist this evening with the higher gusts across BWI/MTN. Prevailing VFR conditions expected across the terminals through Thursday however iso-sct RA/SN showers are possible mainly tonight. Brief periods of reduced vsbys are possible however confidence is very low to pinpoint showers. Best chance would be MRB/IAD. Vfr conditions Saturday through Sunday night. Winds southwest 5 knots Saturday becoming west-northwest 5 knots Saturday night. Winds northwest 5 to 10 knots Sunday through Sunday night.
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&& .MARINE...
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A Gale Warning is in effect through Thu morning. Gusty winds will continue on the waters through this time, however, a lull is possible overnight especially across the Tidal Potomac. Strong mixing will pick up again Thu morning. SCA headline in effect through Thursday evening. SCA may need to be extended further into Thursday night for portions of the Chesapeake Bay. Winds abate early Friday as high pressure builds overhead. Winds anticipated to be mostly 10 kt or less this weekend.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for WVZ501- 505. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon to 6 PM EST Thursday for ANZ530>543. Gale Warning until noon EST Thursday for ANZ530>543.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...HSK NEAR TERM...LFR SHORT TERM...HSK/LFR LONG TERM...KLW AVIATION...HSK/KLW MARINE...HSK/KLW

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