Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 261422 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1022 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY...MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT AND RESIDE OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MID-ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 14Z...1023MB IS CENTERED OVER THE WRN 2/3 OF THE CWA WITH NELY FLOW 5-10 MPH IN SRN MD (MOSTLY CALM ELSEWHERE). VALLEY FOG HAS LIFTED...MAKING FOR A CRYSTAL CLEAR MORNING. JUST A FEW FAIR CU THIS AFTERNOON. MORE SUNSHINE AND A LITTLE HIGHER 850MB TEMPS MAKES FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S. HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS TONIGHT AS HURRICANE CRISTOBAL MOVES AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST. ANOTHER DECREASE IN COVERAGE IN VALLEY FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT AFTER A SUNNY DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME N-NW WEDNESDAY. DOWNSLOPING WILL AIDE IN TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE DC/BALTIMORE METROS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ISO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THIS AREA AS DEWPTS RISE TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND MARGINAL SBCAPE IS EXPECTED.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CONVECTION FROM WEDNESDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. WILL HAVE LOW POPS MAINLY OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN A DRY FORECAST EVEN WITH THE BOUNDARY OVERHEAD. BOUNDARY LOOKS TO MAKE IT INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHERE SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL FIRE. MUCH OF THE CWA SHOULD BE BEHIND THE FRONT BY THEN WITH A NORTHWEST WIND...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THE SOUTHWEST FRINGE OF THE CWA PARTICULARLY NEAR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... FRONT SETTLES FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY WILL TEMPER WARMING A LITTLE...WITH MAXIMA LIKELY BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. HEIGHTS THEN INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS NORTHWARD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO LIKELY MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. DESPITE UPPER RIDGING...MOISTURE RETURN/ADVECTION WILL LIKELY PROMOTE SOME CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS RIDGE FLATTENS OUT AND SURFACE TROUGH IS IN PLACE. CHANCE POPS EXIST ACROSS ENTIRE CWA. BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY TO SNEAK DOWN ON MONDAY...POSSIBLY MAKING IT INTO NORTHEAST MARYLAND. TROUGH IS STILL IN PLACE AS WELL THUS CHANCE POPS CONTINUE MONDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNLESS THE BACKDOOR FRONT MAKES IT FURTHER SOUTH. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH VFR CONDS. LESS VALLEY FOG TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO END THE WEEK.
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&& .MARINE...
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NLY FLOW UP TO 12 KT ON THE BAY THIS MORNING...BECOMING ELY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY WEDNESDAY AND STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH USHERING IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST FOR THURSDAY. SEVERAL HOUR SURGE DIRECTLY BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BE CLOSE TO SCA FOR PARTS OF THE MARINA AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO END THE WEEK.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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WATER LEVELS HAVE DECREASED TO BELOW MINOR FLOODING IN NLY FLOW THIS MORNING. THE FLOW WILL BECOME SELY THIS EVENING...BUT THAT WILL ONLY MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ANOMALIES. NO FURTHER COASTAL FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BAJ/BPP/HAS NEAR TERM...BAJ/HAS SHORT TERM...BPP LONG TERM...BPP AVIATION...BAJ/BPP/HAS MARINE...BAJ/BPP/HAS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ

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