Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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FXUS61 KLWX 161951
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
251 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in overhead tonight and on Friday. A
weak system will pass near the area Saturday night and Sunday.
A backdoor cold front will be near the region on Monday followed
by the return of high pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Gusty northwest flow will continue through the remainder of the
afternoon with gusts up into the 30-35 mph range. These will
diminish heading into the evening and overnight hours as high
pressure builds into the area. Still seeing plenty of strato-
cumulus clouds out there, but these too will diminish relatively
rapidly with the loss of daytime instability, becoming mostly
clear by tonight. Much of the snow shower/flurry activity has
also ended, but could still see a flurry or two through the rest
of the afternoon across northern Maryland and back into West
Virginia.

Otherwise, the first half of the night will be mostly clear for
most locations, except along the Allegheny Front where some
stratus clouds will linger. After midnight, will see some
increase in mid/high clouds across western areas of the forecast
area as upper level energy moves through and warm air advection
begins. Temperatures should be able to radiate quite well once
decoupling occurs, especially across areas that remain clear.
Lows mainly in the 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be overhead to start the day Friday but will
slide southward by the afternoon. Morning mid/high clouds will
become less prevalent by the afternoon although with warm air
advection regime, will likely still be some around. Temperatures
will be considerably milder with highs in the 40s/50s, coolest
across northeast Maryland, warmest across central Virginia.

A system will be pushing across the southern Plains Friday and
Friday night, and move into the southeastern US by Saturday.
Heights will build out ahead of this, leading to dry and mild
conditions. Expecting partly-mostly sunny/clear skies with some
increasing clouds by Saturday afternoon. Lows Friday night in
the 30s will warm significantly into the 60s on Saturday. Some
low 70s also possible across central VA.

The system moving into the SE US will be in a decaying stage by
Saturday night, so its effects will be relatively minor across
our area, aside from the increased chances for a few showers.
Lows Saturday night in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will build into the region Sunday through Tuesday. Dry
conditions and mild temperatures will evolve during this stretch of
time, especially Sunday. Will have to monitor for potential
backdoor cold front Monday which would keep temperatures a bit
cooler for Monday/Tuesday, although still above normal for
February.

By Tuesday night, a cold front should sag across the region and then
stall overhead Wednesday. There is a chance for rain showers Tuesday
night and Wednesday in association with the front. Temperatures will
remain mild to the south of the front and slightly cooler to the
north of the front.

The next low pressure system that could affect the region should
develop along the tail-end of the stalled front Wednesday night.
This low could meander northeastward over the Carolinas, bringing a
chance for rain showers to the mid-Atlantic Wednesday night into
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Predominantly VFR conditions expected through Saturday night.
Any flurry/snow shower activity will come to an end this
afternoon. Gusty northwest winds up to around 30 knots will also
diminish by tonight. There is the potential for some sub-VFR
conditions Saturday night with chances for some rain showers as
a system pushes to the south of the area.

Mostly VFR conditions Sunday through Tuesday. There is a low
chance of sub-VFR conditions with potential backdoor cold front
Monday into Tuesday. Winds northwest 5 to 10 knots Sunday
through Monday. Winds becoming northeast around 5 knots Monday
night and Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA remains in effect across all waters with gusty northwest
winds this afternoon up to around 30 knots. Winds will gradually
subside overnight, however with air temperatures cooler than the
waters, mixing of the lingering stronger winds aloft may still
occur overnight, so have kept Small Craft Advisory going for the
lower tidal Potomac and portions of the Chesapeake overnight.

Otherwise, mainly sub-SCA conditions expected Friday through
Saturday night with developing south/southwesterly flow.

No marine hazards Sunday through Tuesday. Winds northwest 10 to
15 knots Sunday through Monday. Winds becoming northerly around
10 knots.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ531>534-537-
     539>541-543.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for ANZ530-538-542.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MM
NEAR TERM...MM
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...MM/KLW
MARINE...MM/KLW



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