Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 201527 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1127 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...PERSISTING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER EASTERN VA/NC LATE THIS MORNING. CIRRUS DECK HAS MOVED INTO MOST OF THE CWA...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE TODAY WITH SLY/SWLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPS AROUND 12C...MAX TEMPS MID TO UPR 60S. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH TLOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED AND LIGHT SHOWERS AHEAD PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW 50S ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/... AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH MAINLY WLY FLOW. THE DOWNSLOPE WILL COUNTERACT THE HEIGHT FALLS. THEREFORE...WENT WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR POPS THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS LOWER THAN MONDAY NW OF DC FROM CLOUD COVER. COULD IT 70F SE FROM DC SHOULD THE CLOUDS HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE 1ST PART OF THE XTND WL BE CONTROLLED BY THE CLOSED/VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRES AREA. MUCH OF THE RMDR WL BE INFLUENCED BY A RETURN TO HIGH PRES. TUE NGT AND WED SHOULD BE CLDY. "SHOWERY" MAY BE THE BEST WORD TO DESCRIBE THIS PD. NOT RAINY...JUST PDS OF RAIN W/ RLVTLY LOW QPF. TEMP-WISE NOT MUCH OF A DIURNAL VARIATION - LOWS IN THE U40S/HIGHS IN THE MU50S. THE LOW IS XPCTD TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS SRN NEW ENGLAND...W/ HIGH PRES WORKING ITS WAY BACK INTO THE RGN ON NWRLY WINDS. BRZY/ BLUSTERY MIGHT BE GOOD WORDS TO DESCRIBE THU AS THE HIGHER PRES BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLC. HIGHS RANGING FM THE U40S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO THE L60S NEAR THE CHES BAY. MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD HV HIGHS IN THE 50S. AFTR THAT A SLOW WARMING TREND SHOULD TAKE PLACE UNDER M SUNNY DAYTIME SKIES LEADING INTO THE WKND. HIGH TEMPS FOR THE UPCOMING WKND XPCTD TO BE IN THE M60S OVR MOST OF THE AREA. LOWS IN THE 40S. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN SLY/SWLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 18 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH DOWNSLOPING WLY FLOW LIMITING RAIN COVERAGE TO SCATTERED. TUE NGT/WED XPCTD TO BE CLDY. HGTS WL PRBLY IN THE "LOW VFR RANGE"...PSBLY DESCENDING INTO MVFR. SKIES SHOULD IMPRV THU AND FRI. && .MARINE... RETURN FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE. MORNING KIAD SOUNDING INDICATED 20-25KT WINDS NEAR THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...WHICH CONFIRMS MODELS THAT INDICATED A 925MB JET STREAM OF 25-30KT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HAVE EXPANDED THE SCA TO ALL WATERS WITH A NOON START TIME. SCA EXPIRES FOR MOST ZONES AT 8 PM...EXCEPT FOR THE MD CHES BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC WHERE SOUTHERLY CHANNELING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL 2 AM. WLY FLOW TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SCA CONDS XPCTD WED NGT AND THU...PSBLY CONT INTO FRI. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530>533-535-536-538>542. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543. && $$ NEAR TERM AND MARINE UPDATE...KCS

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