Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 132123 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 523 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... HEADLINES...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS POST-FRONTAL WINDS HAVE SWITCHED NORTHWEST AND INCREASED WITH 20 KNOT GUSTS. IN SPITE OF NW FLOW...WATER LEVELS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND THE MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLD LATE THIS EVENING AT ANNAPOLIS SO A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WAS ISSUED AROUND THEIR HIGH TIDE OF 10PM. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND 40F IN ELEVATED VALLEYS ABOVE THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE THERE...BUT NO FROST ADVISORY IS ANTICIPATED AS MIXING SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE. HIGH PRES WL BE PUSHING INTO THE AREA QUICKLY TNGT...ALLOWING SKIES TO CLR. AS MENTIONED ERLR THERE WERE TEMPS IN THE U20S IN THE UPR MIDWEST THIS MRNG. WHILE IT WON`T BE EVEN CLOSE TO THAT COLD IN THE MID ATLC OVRNGT IT IS A GOOD INDICATION OF THE AIR MASS. SUN MRNG LOWS XPCTD TO DROP TO A40 IN THE HIGHLANDS... PERHAPS EVEN U30S. THE CITIES AND ALONG THE BAY WL ONLY DROP INTO U50S...BUT MUCH OF THE CENTER OF THE FA SHOULD DROP TO THE U40S/A50. NO FOG OVERNIGHT FROM DRIER AIR MIXING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... IT`S LOOKING LK A BEAUTIFUL DAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRES BLDS OVR THE RGN. M SUNNY SKIES W/ HIGHS IN THE M70S. NO PROBS WX WISE FORESEEN SUN NGT/MON. ANOTHER COOLER NGT SUN NGT W/ LOWS GETTING INTO THE 40S W OF I-95. SHORT WV IN THE UPR FLOW MON NGT WL BRING AN INCRS IN CLD CVR. MON NGT`S TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND ABT 10 DEGS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE. A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL TRY TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BUT BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF MOISTURE...WE HAVE POPS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REINFORCE ITSELF SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN THE REGION. && .AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE TO RECOVER FM THE PD OF MVFR XPRNCD LATE THIS MRNG/ERLY THIS AFTN. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK AND SCATTER OUT...BECOMING COMPLETELY CLEAR TONIGHT. NO FOG AS NWLY FLOW MIXES THROUGH SUNRISE. WEAK COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS...THEN HIGH PRESSURE/VFR/NLY FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .MARINE... GRADIENT HAS INCREASED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FM THE WEST. SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS NOW THROUGH TONIGHT. CONTINUES FOR WATERS SOUTH OF SANDY PT SUNDAY MORNING UNTIL 10 AM. WINDS DIMINISH QUICKLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS. WEAK COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...THEN NWLY/NLY FLOW (MAINLY LIGHT) THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR ANNAPOLIS. HIGH TIDE 10 PM THERE SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND 2.4 FT MLLW SINCE THE CURRENT ANOMALY OF ABOUT 0.9FT WILL DROP AND MAY STILL BE AROUND 0.7 FT AT HIGH TIDE (PREDICTED TIDE IS 1.7 FT MLLW). THE TIDAL ANOMALY ON THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC IS ALSO DROPPING... ALREADY BELOW THE DEPARTURE REQUIRED TO CAUSE MINOR FLOODING AT THE SENSITIVE SW WATERFRONT GAUGE SITE. SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE REGION TODAY. WINDS WILL TURN NW IN ITS WAKE TONIGHT...RESULTING IN A BLOWOUT TIDE. LOCATIONS THAT WILL RECEIVE THE PM TIDE PRIOR TO WIND SHIFT MAY BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO MINOR FLOODING. ANNAPOLIS IS THE BIGGEST CONCERN. THINK THE WIND SHIFT WILL REACH BALTIMORE AND DC FIRST. WILL BE ADDING WORDING TO THE HWO. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ014. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530-531-535- 536-538-539-542. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537- 540-541-543. && $$ UPDATE...JACKSON PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WOODY!/KLW

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