Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 101510 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1110 AM EDT THU APR 10 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE IS OFF THE OFF THE COAST RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHWEST WIND WILL COMBINE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO USHER IN MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S FOR ALL LOW LAND LOCATIONS. IT WILL BE BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO A DEEP MIXING LAYER AND TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. BAY BREEZE WILL BE LIMITED TO RIGHT ALONG THE BAY DUE TO THE BREEZE. A SOUTHWEST 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HUDSON BAY. THIS FRONT LOSES MOMENTUM AND STALLS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY. SOME INSTABILITY IS PRESENT BOTH NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS E WV/NORTHERN MD AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT WHERE MLCAPES OF A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG ARE PRESENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. REMOVED THUNDER FOR NOW...BUT WILL REASSESS FOR THE AFTERNOON UPDATE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC FRIDAY EVENING AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ALONG A STALLED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. MID LEVEL FORCING WILL BE COUPLED WITH THE TAIL END OF THE JET STREAK AND SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND SRN MD WHICH ARE ON THE SOUTH MORE UNSTABLE SIDE OF THE LOW. FCST SOUNDINGS HAVE SKINNY CAPE AND UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR COUPLED WITH NO SFC HEATING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MORE SHOWERS AS THE LOW MOVES EASTWARD. THE WEAK FRONT WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE HIGH IN THE ATLANTIC AND WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO 70 SAT AND APPROACHING THE UPPER 70S SUN. A DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE NRN REACHES OF THE CWA SUN AFTERNOON. && && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY TRAILING A COLD FRONT. 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS BUT BOTH MODELS HAVE MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND GUST TO AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS MAY BE PRESENT LATE FRIDAY DUE TO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NEXT WEEK AND HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THAT TIME.
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&& .MARINE...
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HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF THE COAST TODAY AND A RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AT NOON FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...EXPANDING TO ALL WATERS AT 4PM. CONTINUED THE SCA INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE MD PORTION OF THE BAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY. A SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH THAT WILL GUST UP TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND LOW FUEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNSET.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>532-539- 540. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ538. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ542. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ533-534-537-541-543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-536.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BAJ/HAS NEAR TERM...SDG/BAJ SHORT TERM...HAS LONG TERM...HAS AVIATION...SDG/BAJ/HAS MARINE...SDG/BAJ/HAS FIRE WEATHER...BAJ

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