Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 150544 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 144 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 01Z...1024MB SFC HIGH ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW AT NON DECOUPLED SITES. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. WITH CLEAR AND CALM OVERNIGHT...VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN FROM THE FOOTHILLS AND WEST. SIMILAR TEMPS TO LAST NIGHT WITH UPR 40S IN WRN BALT-WASH SUBURBS LOW TO MID 40S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE (AND UPR 30S IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS). HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SLY FLOW ALLOWS HIGHER MAX TEMPS THAN SUNDAY...GENERALLY MID TO UPR 70S. SHOULD CLOUDS HOLD OFF...SLY MIXING COULD ALLOW SOME 80S IN THE SRN ZONES. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AN UPR LVL SHORT WV WL BE TRACKING ACROSS MN/WI MON...REACHING NY STATE MON NGT. AN ASSOCIATED CD FNT WL BE MOVG THRU THE AREA. THIS WL HV THE PTNL TO SPAWN SOME RW...BUT THE TRAJECTORY OF THE FNT ISN`T GREAT. WL GO W/ CHC POPS AND LOW QPF. NOT AS COOL MON NGT. ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRES WL BUILD BACK INTO THE MID ATLC TUE...CREATING BRZY AND COOL CONDS. HIGHS XPCTD AGN TO BE IN THE MU70S...ABT 5 DEGS BLO NRML FOR MID SEPT. TUE NGT THE CONTINENTAL HIGH SETTLES BACK OVR THE RGN...ANOTHER NGT W/ LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 40S W OF I-95. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY AND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE. A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL TRY TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BUT BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF MOISTURE...WE HAVE POPS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REINFORCE ITSELF SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR CONDS ACRS THE TERMINALS ATTM. HWVR...FOG HAS DVLPD INVOF CJR/HWY AND W99. GDNC EXIBITING ITS TYPICAL BIAS OF OVERDOING CVRG. DO THINK THAT THERE IS POTL...SPCLY FOR CHO AND PERHAPS MRB. HV LIMITED RESRICTIONS TO BRIEF IFR AT CHO AND MRVF AT MRB NEAR SUNRISE. VFR CONDS WL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE DAY INTO THE EVNG. A WK CDFNT WL CROSS THE TERMINALS OVNGT. ATTM...AM THINKING THAT SHRA CVRG SHUD BE SCT AND LGT IN NATURE. NOT WORTH INTRO RESTRICTIONS INTO FCST ATTM. VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
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&& .MARINE...
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WNDS AOB 5 KT UNDER HIPRES. IT WL REMAIN THAT WAY THRU THE DAY ON MON. WL HV A SLY FLOW DVLP AHD OF AN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE AND CDFNT MON NGT. HV CAPPED WNDS AT 10 KT FOR THE EVNG AND 15 KT FOR THE OVNGT HRS. CFP COMING NEAR SUNRISE TUE. A NWLY SURGE BHD THE FNT SHUD SUPPORT DECENT MIXING. HV ISSUED SCA ALL WATERS FOR 20 KT GUSTS DURING THE DAY. LIGHT NORTH FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BECOMES SLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN ONSHORE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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HIGH TIDE HAS PASSED AT ANNAPOLIS...AND WATER LVLS ARE BACK UNDER CRITERIA. HV ALLOWED ADVY TO EXPIRE. THE TIDE HAS REACHED BALTIMORE AND SW DC W/O ISSUE. WHILE THE THREAT HAS PASSED FOR THIS CYCLE...POSITIVE DEPARTURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NEXT TWO TIDE CYCLES-- THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. CBOFS INDICATES ANNAPOLIS WILL TOUCH MINOR FLOOD AGAIN MONDAY MORNING...AND SOLOMONS/PINEY POINT WILL THREATEN AS WELL. ESTOFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...IS SUGGESTING THAT THE MRNG TIDE WILL BE OK. WHILE CBOFS HAS A HIGH BIAS AT ONSET...IT TENDS TO BE PRETTY GOOD AFTER THAT. HAVE MORE CREEDENCE IN IT...BUT AT THIS POINT AM INSURE IF IT WILL BE MINOR OR CAUTION STAGE. THATS WHY THE EVE ADVY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. WE WILL MONITOR AND REISSUE SOMETHING LATER THIS MRNG IF IS APPEARS NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS THIS MRNG...THE PM TIDE CYCLE IS LOOKING HIGHER. GUIDNACE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF THAT. THEREFORE...ADVYS APPEAR PROBABLE FOR THIS AFTN-TNGT.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...BAJ SHORT TERM...ABW LONG TERM...KLW AVIATION...HTS/KLW MARINE...HTS/KLW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS

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