Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 230900 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 400 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO A POSITION EAST OF THE DELMARVA SATURDAY MORNING AND MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE AREA BEFORE A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... FOR HEADLINE UPDATE...SEE SHORT TERM SECTION. HIGH PRES IN CONTROL FOR A BETTER PART OF TODAY...BUT A REGIONAL SIZE SWATH OF PRECIP ON THE WAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE LEADING EDGE IS ALREADY ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE SRN APLCNS/CAROLINAS. BY DAWN...IT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE VA/NC BORDER AND BY MIDDAY JUST ON THE FRINGE OF THE SWRN CWA TIER. TIL THEN...NEAR OF JUST SUB-FREEZING TEMPS HAVE SUNK INTO THE REGION JUST STILL WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE MEMBERS WHO HAVE MOST TEMPS IN THE L-M20S AT THIS HR. DEBRIS CIRRUS LIKELY HOLDING TEMPS IN CHECK A REASONABLE AMNT. POST-SUNRISE THIS MRNG...THIS DECK WILL ALSO PREVENT TOO MUCH OF AN INCREASE - MODERATING TEMPS IN THE M-U30S BY MIDDAY AS PRECIP APPROACHES FROM THE SW. A GOOD PROGRESSION OF THE INITIAL PRECIP WAVES WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS AFTN FROM S TO N...W/ DC/BALT METRO AREAS BEING AFFECTED TOWARD THE LATER STAGES OF THE EVE COMMUTE. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... HEADLINE UPDATE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA FROM EITHER LATE THIS AFTN OR EVE INTO MID-LATE MRNG SAT. A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE AND EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE ADVISORY AREA W/ FREEZING RAIN THE OVER-ARCHING THEME...THOUGH ACCUMUATLING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NRN AND WRN HALVES OF THE CWA...INCLUDING JUST INTO THE WRN DC/BALT SUBURBS. IMMEDIATE DC/BALT AREAS SHOULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AND SLEET MIX LATE TONIGHT BUT THE ACCUMULATION/DURATION WILL BE CUT DOWN BY THE WAVERING FREEZING RAIN WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE NESTLED RIGHT AROUND/NEAR I-95 THRU THE DURATION OF THE EVENT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... FAST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE U.S. IN THE XTND PD. LOW PRES MOVG OFF THE DELMARVA WL BE DRAWING COLDER AIR INTO THE MID ATLC AS IT EXITS. I-95 MRNG RA XPCTD TO MIX W/ SN DURG THE AFTN WHILE POP CHCS DCRS. W OF I-95 MRNG MIXED PCPN WL BE COMING TO AN END DURG THE AFTN. XCPTN WL BE THE WRN UPSLOPE AREAS. HIGH PRES ACROSS THE AREA SAT NGT/1ST PART OF SUN WL QUICKLY MOVE E AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE AREA SUN NGT AS THE LONG WV PATTERN RMNS IN THE WRN RDG/ERN TROF THAT HAS BEEN WRITTEN ABT MANY TIMES IN JAN. WINTRY PCPN WL BE PSBL SUN AFTN W OF I-81...BCMG LKLY OVR THE AREA SUN NGT. LGT ACCUMS WL BE PSBL. COLD AND DRY CONDS OVR THE MID ATLC DURG THE MIDWK. HIGHS IN THE U20S/M30S W/ LOWS RANGING FM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE HIGHLANDS TO THE UPR TEENS/M20S IN THE CITIES. ANOTHER CLIPPER COULD IMPACT THE AREA AT THE END OF NEXT WK. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDS THRU MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD...UNTIL LATE AFTN TDA. A WINTRY MIX WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS EVE FOR THE DC/BALT METRO - SLIGHTLY EARLIER FOR AREAS S AND W. THIS SYSTEM WILL LINGER INTO MIDDAY SAT...W/ MAINLY AND FZRA/IP MIX N AND W OF DC...MORE FZRA FOR THE DC AREA AND S/IP/FZRA FOR BALT AND NORTH. CIGS DOWN INTO IFR CAT XPCTD SAT MRNG...IMPRVG DURG THE AFTN. VFR SAT NGT AND SUN...THEN LKLY DIMINISHING SUN NGT AS THE NEXT LOW PRES AREA MOVES INTO THE MID ATLC. && .MARINE... LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT...SLY THEN TURNING SE AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST. A STORM SYSTEM OFF DELMARVA WILL SWITCH WINDS TO NLY AND GUSTY OVER THE WATER INTO EARLY SAT. SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SAT AFTN AS LOW PRES DEPARTS AREA AND HIGH PRES RETURNS TO THE WATERS. NO MARINE HAZARDS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY AFTERNOON. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR DCZ001. MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ003>006-011-013-014-503>508. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ501-502. VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ025-026-036-037-503-504-508. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ052>054-505-506. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ027>031-038>040-050-051-501-502-507. WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ505-506. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ051>053. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ050-055-501>504. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-540>543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ530- 531-535-536-538-539. && $$ PRODUCTS...GMS/WOODY!

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