Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 141328 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 928 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary remains offshore of the Carolina Coast this morning. Weak high pressure will stay over the mid- Atlantic through midweek. A second weak frontal boundary will move into the mid-Atlantic late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... The latest radar as of 9am shows a couple of rain showers moving northeast across southern Nelson, eastern Albemarle, and southern Orange Counties in Virginia. There are also a few sprinkles or a shower moving northeast across Grant County, West Virginia. Most of any other rain showers or rumbles of thunder should be confined to the mountains of West Virginia and western Maryland through the rest of the day. A return flow of light southeast winds will evolve through the day as well across our region. Cloud cover and humidity will increase too. Highs this afternoon will be in the lower 80s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CLoudy skies tonight courtesy of moisture advection on WSW flow. There is a big difference in PoPs between the MET and MAV, with the MET the more bullish. The HRRRX is portraying scattered activity primarily across the southern part of our forecast area. This is the tact we`ll take - with chance PoPs over the south/slight chance north. Lows mainly in the upper 60s, except warmer in the cities/along the Bay. Chance of showers/isolated thunderstorms Tuesday as a short wave moves through the region. The first taste of tropical activity in the western Atlantic - Gert, will stay well offshore. Highs in the lower to mid 80s. Tuesday night and Wednesday should be dry as high pressure works into the region. Wednesday should see temperatures climb into the upper 80s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Seasonably warm to hot summer weather is expected for the latter half of the week, with some cooling heading into the weekend. A ridge of high pressure overhead Wednesday night will give way to the next low pressure system that will approach and move across the area in the Thursday-Friday time-frame. This will bring an increased chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms along with more humid and warm to hot temperatures as highs may approach or exceed 90F. High pressure and some cooling temperatures/lower humidity will then build in behind the front for the weekend with highs dropping back off into the 80s. && .AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR Monday through Wednesday. Best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be near the CHO terminal. Predominantly VFR is expected Wednesday night through Friday with potential for brief periods of reductions in isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. && .MARINE... No problems foreseen on the waters through midweek. Sub-SCA conditions expected Wednesday night and Thursday with a developing light southerly flow. South winds will increase Thursday night and Friday ahead of a frontal system, and Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KLW NEAR TERM...KLW SHORT TERM...KLW LONG TERM...MM AVIATION...MM/KLW MARINE...MM/KLW

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