Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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869 FXUS61 KLWX 192000 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 300 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move off to the east tonight. A warm front will move into the area Friday and stall out nearby through Saturday. Low pressure will affect the area Sunday and Monday. Weak high pressure may approach the area Tuesday before a cold front approaches Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure is currently located directly overhead. The low clouds which lingered much of the morning have now mostly dissipated, though high clouds continue to stream over the region. Aloft, the ridge axis remains to our west over West Virginia. Further west, a closed upper low is over the central Plains, with the associated surface low near Memphis and a warm front extending eastward towards Savannah. The clouds may thin late this afternoon and this evening as the ridge axis aloft passes overhead, before thickening again overnight in advance of the approaching system. Warm advection, albeit rather weak, starts late tonight and continues on Friday as the closed low opens into a shortwave and lifts northeast across the region. With this overall being a weakening feature, rainfall is not expected to be particularly significant on Monday, generally less than a quarter of an inch. Rain may move through as several bands as suggested by short-range high resolution guidance, so went with "periods of rain" given potential for dry intervals. That all having been said, in general we expect rain to arrive across metro DC 8-10 AM, with light rain likely occurring at swearing in, and the rain should mostly depart 2-4 PM. However, the low clouds, fog and drizzle may persist given light southeast flow and no frontal passage expected. Lows tonight will drop into the 30s in many spots given the lack of low clouds this evening, but may rise late as clouds re-develop and thicken. With the rain expected on Friday, expect highs to stay below guidance, mid to upper 40s generally. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Friday night into Saturday night, the region is more or less between systems, but with the warm front stalling to our south and nothing to disturb the air mass, low clouds, mist, drizzle and perhaps fog look likely to remain over the region, at least through early Saturday. Some insolation may reach the ground enough to dissipate the drizzle, mist and fog on Saturday afternoon, but it will be short lived. Warm advection precip with the next complex low pressure system will start Saturday evening, with rain likely to overspread much of the region late Saturday night. With the clouds, mist, drizzle and patchy fog, lows on Friday night should not drop much, with readings generally in the 40s. Highs on Saturday will be dependent on the clouds thinning a bit with a break in the fog and drizzle. Assuming this occurs, we will likely rise into the low-mid 50s. Saturday night lows should stay in the 40s with the clouds and rain arriving late. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A storm system will develop over the Mississippi Valley and deepen as it moves toward the east-northeast Sunday and Sunday night. This low will send energy into our region Sunday into Sunday night, bringing rain to the region. On Monday, the main low will move to the northeast a little further. The threat for rain continue Monday into early Monday evening. Temperatures will remain mild for January but cooler air quickly lines up on the doorstep of the region to move in Monday night. Some guidance suggests enough cold air may arrive before precipitation ends to allow a change to snow, particularly across higher elevations well northwest of I-95 corridor. Will need to watch this potential. Other concern Monday is for gusty winds, and some guidance is hinting at wind advisory gusts as the low passes just to the east. Will need to look at this harder in coming day or two. High pressure will usher in drier air Tuesday and Tuesday night. Clouds will break for sun, except for clouds and upslope rain and/or snow showers in the Potomac Highlands possible. An upper level trough of low pressure will sag from the Great Lakes region toward the mid-Atlantic Wednesday. A return of mild air from the south will evolve ahead of the trough with some sunshine giving way to some clouds. Temperatures will be seasonable with some sunshine Thursday. An upper level trough of low pressure will be just to the north but dry conditions should prevail. There is a chance of upslope rain or snow showers in the Potomac Highlands. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR through late tonight with high pressure overhead sliding to the east. With the approaching warm front, clouds will thicken and lower, with intervals of rain starting early-mid morning Friday and continuing into the afternoon. Visibility and cigs will lower at least to MVFR, and likely IFR. While rain ends in the afternoon, low clouds, mist and drizzle with IFR conditions likely to persist through Friday night into Saturday morning before improving perhaps to MVFR Saturday afternoon and evening. Conditions may drop again late Saturday night as rain moves back in. Sub-VFR conditions Sunday through Monday with gusty winds developing Monday. Improving conditions Tuesday. && .MARINE... Winds should remain below SCA through Saturday night. Rain, drizzle and fog/mist likely to arrive Friday morning and persist through Saturday morning. Improved conditions seem likely Saturday afternoon and evening before rain returns late at night. Approaching system looks to bring increasing winds Sunday and Monday as it strengthens and moves northeast along the coast. SCA looks likely with gales possible Monday. Winds begin to diminish Tuesday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Tidal anomalies have risen considerably today. Some of the sensitive sites may reach action stage this evening, but we expect anomalies to start decreasing a bit this evening so we should avoid any minor coastal flooding. If minor flooding were to occur, it would most likely occur at Straits Point. Odds of coastal flooding in DC remain low. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RCM NEAR TERM...RCM SHORT TERM...RCM LONG TERM...KLW AVIATION...RCM/KLW MARINE...RCM/KLW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RCM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.