Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 240206 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1006 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NEARBY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THIS TIME. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AND GRADUALLY SLACKENING SURFACE WINDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S BY SUNRISE. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FROST IN FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID 30S AND WINDS GO LIGHT LATE...BUT COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TOO...BUT DRYING CONDITIONS AND WIND FIELD SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD SUNDAY...BRINGING SUNSHINE ALONG WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED...SO MIN TEMPS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS CHILLY...RANGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR MONDAY AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN NOTICEABLY WARMER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE. A POPUP SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND SHENANDOAH VALLEY TO DAYTIME HEATING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH NEW YORK INTO PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT SINCE MOST OF THE FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH DURING THIS TIME. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCES REMAINING ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH. A RETURN FLOW THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING WARMTH AND MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A SECOND AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TO THE REGION. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS FROM 5-10 KNOTS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY BEFORE TURNING TO THE SOUTH BY LATE SUNDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE FRONT. WINDS SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS TUESDAY...BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT. && .MARINE...
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A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...AND FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND IT WILL STALL OUT NEARBY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... FUEL MOISTURE HAS RECOVERED A BIT DUE TO THE RAINFALL FRIDAY INTO THIS MORNING. VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN FOR SUN WITH RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS BUT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. RH`S RECOVER SOME MON BUT STILL CRITICAL AND WINDS STRENGTHEN LEADING TO AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MID WEEK BUT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AREAWIDE AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530-531-538- 539-542. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537- 540-541-543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535- 536. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJL NEAR TERM...BJL/MM SHORT TERM...BJL LONG TERM...KLW AVIATION...BJL/MM/KLW MARINE...BJL/MM/KLW FIRE WEATHER...BJL

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