Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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980 FXUS61 KLWX 241605 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1205 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will return to the region through midweek. Low pressure will cross to the north late in the week with the cold front crossing the area Thursday into Thursday night. High pressure returns for Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/... Northwesterly winds across the region as a cold front has moved off the coast. IAD VWP is not terribly impressive - 25 knots at 4000 feet...although the morning IAD sounding did show a subsidence inversion around 6000 feet. Bottom line - it will be breezy this afternoon but not expecting windy/winds over 30 mph. W99 currently reading 65 degrees. This is probably close to the max they will reach...although CAA not terribly strong. CHO currently reading 69 will ikely reach the mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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Have issued a freeze warning for Highland/Pendleton. This is the final night of the season that the Highlands can have freeze products issued. Have issued a frost advisory for Augusta/ Rockingham northwest to Grant. The gradient will relax a bit and decouple as well. Although the airmass will be chilly, it will remain well mixed which will impede radiational cooling. Do not have any frost concerns tonight due to those winds. The Central Shenandoah Valley may prove to be an exception, but it would be premature to issue Frost Advisories at this juncture. Highland and Pendleton even have freeze potential. That is in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. Tuesday and Wednesday will be quieter days as high pressure builds in. That will allow for decoupling and radiational cooling Tuesday night. Hence, there is a strong possibility for areas of frost over a good portion of the area. Growing seasons could end for some counties. Temperatures both days will likely be in the 50s. Solutions becoming a little more progressive, bringing in isentropic lift Wednesday night...primarily west of the Blue Ridge. Guidance has gone more aggressive with POPs, and have included a chance for overnight rain in the aforementioned areas.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Low pressure will be moving across the southern Great Lakes Thursday while an associated strong cold front moves through the Ohio Valley. Southerly flow will increase Thursday and showers are expected to move from west to east Thursday and Thursday night. Windy conditions are possible behind the frontal passage. The cold front will move to the east by late Thursday night/Friday morning and showers will taper off across the region. Rainfall amounts should stay under a half inch through Friday. High pressure will briefly move into the region Friday and Friday night before another low pressure system moves into the Great Lakes. A cold front should cross the region this weekend. Temperatures should be seasonable if not cooler than normal through the weekend. && .AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions today with northwesterly winds gusting into the 20s this afternoon. Will still have northwest flow Tuesday, but winds will be on the order of 10-20 kt during the day, and become light Tuesday night. A cold front will cross the terminals Thursday-Friday and may cause flight restrictions. && .MARINE... Small Craft Advisory for all waters. Have extended Advisory for the Bay and lower Potomac into Tuesday as momentum transfer looks like it will support at least minimal SCA gusts. A cold front will approach the waters Thursday and SCA possible Thursday-Friday. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...None. MD...None. VA...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ025>027- 029. Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ503-504. WV...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for WVZ055-501- 502. Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for WVZ505-506. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ530>534- 537>543. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ535-536.
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&& $$ UPDATE...WOODY! PREVIOUS...HTS/HAS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.