Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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FXUS61 KLWX 281509 AAA
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1009 AM EST Mon Nov 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper energy from a large low pressure system over the upper
midwest will move into the region tonight and Tuesday, followed
by a deepening surface low that moves across the area Wednesday
night through Thursday. High pressure will return to the region
Friday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Dense cirrus have already overspread the entire area this morning
with clouds expected to continue to thicken and lower as the day
progresses. Did introduce a small chance of PoPs for the
southwest part of the fcst area for late this afternoon. However,
the bulk of the rain is expected late tonight into tomorrow
morning. A period of gusty winds is possible late tonight and
early Tue over the higher elevations, but speeds likely to remain
below advzy criteria.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Mild and turbulent Tuesday through Wednesday night with low pressure
persisting over the north-central CONUS and a powerful jet streak
overhead. Two bouts of a low level jet occur as shortwaves pass to
our west, one late tonight/Tuesday and the second on Wednesday. Day
3 marginal outlook from SPC seems warranted as a SWly jet of 50 to
60 knots crosses.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The continued lack of cold air is the big story in the extended
part of the forecast. A broad upper low looks to set up over
eastern Canada while surface high pressure builds into the Mid
Atlantic. Expect to see a return to the dry weather which has
dominated area weather for the past several weeks. Highs will be
around 50 Thurs-Sat with lows in the 30s.

The next chance for precipitation will be on Sunday as a warm
front moves through the region. Again temperatures will be in the
upper 40s/lower 50s so p-type will be of the liquid variety.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High clouds thicken to mid-level through tonight. Rain showers
develop late tonight across DC metros with gusts possible.  Second
round of gusty showers Wednesday.

Outside of potential morning fog VFR conditions expected Thursday
and Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
South winds increase today with SCA for all waters midday through
Tuesday. Jet of strong winds in low levels Tuesday may warrant gale
warning and again Wed afternoon and evening. SCA expected to continue
through at least Thursday.

SCA may be needed on Thursday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
South winds today through midweek will bring higher water levels and
possibly flooding conditions as early as Tuesday.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
PRODUCTS...BAJ/Woody!



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