Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 280900 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 400 AM EST Mon Nov 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move offshore today. Upper energy from a large low pressure system over the upper midwest will move into the region Monday night and Tuesday, followed by a deepening surface low that moves across the area Wednesday night through Thursday. High pressure will return to the region Friday and Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... As of 3am, a 977mb surface low is over SD with an upper trough axis over the 4-corners area. A 1025mb surface high is centered over eastern NC. Thin cirrus and decoupled winds have allowed temps to drop to the mid to upper 20s inland with low to mid 30s nearshore and most mountain locations. This looks to be the last subfreezing weather for the rest of the work week. The SW CONUS trough will eject NE to the Midwest through tonight as a new trough digs across the intermountain west. This will keep the northern Great Plains low in place into Tuesday before it drifts east across the Great Lakes through the rest of the work week. Increasing/thickening clouds today as high pressure shifts offshore. A south flow develops and increases through tonight. Maxima generally mid 50s under mid-level clouds. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Mild and turbulent Tuesday through Wednesday night with low pressure persisting over the north-central CONUS and a powerful jet streak overhead. Two bouts of a low level jet occur as shortwaves pass to our west, one late tonight/Tuesday and the second on Wednesday. Day 3 marginal outlook from SPC seems warranted as a SWly jet of 50 to 60 knots crosses. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The continued lack of cold air is the big story in the extended part of the forecast. A broad upper low looks to set up over eastern Canada while surface high pressure builds into the Mid Atlantic. Expect tosee a return to the dry weather which has dominated area weather for the past several weeks. Highs will be around 50 Thurs-Sat with lows in the 30s. The next chance for precipitation will be on Sunday as a warm front moves through the region. Again temperatures will be in the upper 40s/lower 50s so p-type will be of the liquid variety. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High clouds thicken to mid-level through tonight. Rain showers develop late tonight across DC metros with gusts possible. Second round of gusty showers Wednesday. Outisde of potential morning fog VFR conditions expected Thursday and Friday. && .MARINE... South winds increase today with SCA for all waters midday through Tuesday. Jet of strong winds in low levels Tuesday may warrant gale warning. SCA expected to continue through at least Thursday. SCA may be needed on Thursday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... South winds today through midweek will bring higher water levels and possibly flooding conditions as early as Tuesday. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ530>543. && $$ PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!

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