Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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FXUS61 KLWX 181339
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
939 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will shift south across the across the area today
and persist over the area through Monday. A cold front will slide
southeast across the area Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Sprawling high pressure building in overhead will lead to sunny
skies and warm temperatures today. Only clouds should be a few
scattered afternoon cumulus and a few wisps of cirrus. Highs near
normal for mid June in the low to mid 80s.

Clear skies and light winds tonight. Lows 50s/60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure lingers over the area through Monday. Warming
trend with 90s by Monday. Again went a couple degrees above the
Superblend through the short term. Low pressure that pushed
southeast across the area Thursday will return to just off the Mid-
Atlantic coast Monday. The only effect on local weather should be
slightly enhanced NEly flow.

An approaching trough Monday should have preceding showers and
thunderstorms that may reach NWrn zones around sunrise. Added chance
thunder for those zones late Monday night to account for the risk.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A warm day Tuesday ahead of the upper level short wave tracking
across Ontario. Highs should reach the upper 80s...possibly
touching 90. At the surface a cold front west of the Appalachians will
be a reflection...and likely provide a focus for convection.

Showers/isolated thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday night.
Lows in the 60s.

The cold front is expected to push south of the forecast area
Wednesday. Showers will be on the wane in the central Shenandoah
Valley as that upper level trough digs into the eastern U.S. - not
exactly the "normal" weather pattern for the first days of summer.
This will lead to highs in the lower 80s. Lows Wed night in the
upper 50s west of the Blue Ridge...lower 60s east except mid 60s
in the cities and along the Bay.

The western US ridge/eastern trough is expected to remain in place
through next Friday. This will keep temperatures about five
degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions and light winds prevail through Monday under high
pressure. Only exception may be some patchy fog at night at
CHO/MRB.

Cold front moves through Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday, with a
chance for a brief period of showers and storms (and sub-VFR)
along it. VFR conditions return by midday Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure just north of the area producing 10 knot east winds
this morning across the waters. High pressure shifts south across
the area today and will persist through Monday - expect tranquil
conditions through this time.

Winds strengthen some along/near cold front Tuesday into Wednesday
possibly causing a scattered thunderstorms. Winds decrease
Wednesday as high pressure returns to the area.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
One foot anomaly in DC will cause SW waterfront to reach their
minor threshold this morning. East flow around 10 knots persists
today. Anomalies up to one foot above normal persist with minor
coastal flooding likely again at Straits Point and Annapolis
tonight before anomalies decrease.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...BAJ/MM
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...BAJ/MM/ABW
MARINE...BAJ/MM/ABW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ/MM



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