Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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FXUS61 KLWX 161526
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1026 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the area through tonight. A stationary
front over the southern mid-Atlantic states will move north as a
warm front Tuesday. A weak cold front will push through the area
Wednesday. Brief high pressure returns Thursday followed by another
system Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Extensive cloud cover remains through the afternoon...as low-level
moisture is trapped between high pressure centered off the
northeast coast and warm front over the western Carolinas. Thicker
(thinner) clouds expected across the south (northeast)...as
evident by visible imagery and NSSL-WRF synthetic satellite. Most
areas remain dry through the afternoon...with just some spotty
showers across central VA and the Highlands.

Seasonable highs...generally in the low/mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Skies will continue to be cloudy tonight and Tuesday. An upper
level short wave will push through the region Tuesday. Have
increased PoPs slightly for Tuesday...primarily in likely category
although we are on the cusp of categorical and suspect later
shifts will trend in that direction. Temperatures are expected to
climb well into the 50s on southwesterly flow so the only p-type
we`re thinking about is rain. QPF`s should be under an inch.

The chance of showers will continue Tuesday night before coming to
an end Wednesday as the short wave tracks to the NE. Winter will
remain on hiatus. Lows Tuesday night will be in the 40s...highs
Wednesday of 55-60 will be about 15 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The latter half of the week and into the weekend will continue to be
dominated by long wave troughing out in the western US and long wave
ridging along the eastern seaboard. However this does become
increasingly convoluted as time goes on.

Brief surface ridging will follow the early week frontal system and
move over the Mid-Atlantic states for Wednesday night and Thursday.
This should lead to dry conditions and mild temperatures, with highs
progged right now to be in the 50s.

The next system however will quickly amplify in the Plains on
Thursday and will push eastward across the region for the end of the
week with increasing chances for showers on Friday. Temperatures
will still be mild, so there is very little to no threat of wintry
precip.

Uncertainty grows as pattern becomes more convoluted by the weekend,
but next best chance of rain at this time appears to be Sunday as
next system makes its approach from the southwest. Temperatures
over the weekend will remain mild with highs around 50F.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Plenty of cloud cover today courtesy of high pressure over New
England and a stationary boundary over the Carolinas. Ceilings are
expected to be in the MVFR range today...possibly dropping to IFR
tonight. Rain showers and diminished ceilings are expected
Tuesday. Improvement should happen Wednesday.

VFR expected Wednesday night through Thursday night under high
pressure. Sub-VFR conditions then possible Friday with low clouds
and rain showers developing.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds foreseen through midweek. Water temperatures are in
the mid 30s.

Sub-SCA conditions return for Wednesday night through Thursday night
with next chance of Small Craft conditions on Friday with developing
southerly flow.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
UPDATE...MSE
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/MJM



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