Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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FXUS61 KLWX 141824
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
224 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

The remnants of Irma will track northeast into southern New
England tonight. High pressure will build into the Mid Atlantic
for the weekend. Hurricane Jose is presently 1050 miles east of
Jacksonville. See National Hurricane Center bulletins for
information on Jose.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

The final vestiges of Irma are fading away across PA/NY as it
heads towards southern New England. HRRR has been insistent
about a line of rw/tstms developing out of the southern reaches
of the remaining spin...across southern PA into WV...and then
moving into our forecast area between 21 and 02Z. If these do
develop these look transitory and non severe.

Afterwards a quiet night is expected. Fog development possible
in the usual locations after midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

Weak high pressure over the area Friday through Saturday night.
Isolated showers will be possible Friday afternoon, otherwise
quiet weather through Saturday night. Highs Friday and Saturday
around 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

High pressure will dominate local conditions on Sunday into
Monday as east/northeasterly flow settles over our area with
Hurricane Jose moving north in the west Atlantic. This should
settle conditions for afternoon showers and thunderstorms as
instability increases. A cold front approaches Monday night into
Tuesday, maintaining the chance for showers and thunderstorms
over our area. Wednesday and Thursday seems to be dry with a
strong high pressure building over our area.

Regarding Hurricane Jose, most of the ensemble members keep it
moving north, away from the east coast. Just a few members bring the
storm closer to land. The National Hurricane Center continues to
issue advisories on Hurricane Jose and can be found at the following
website: http:/www.nhc.noaa.gov

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR conditions expected through midnight. Showers/isolated
thunderstorms are possible at any TAF site between 22-02Z. Fog
may develop at CHO/MRB/IAD after midnight.

VFR conditions expected Sunday into Tuesday with maybe periods
of sub-VFR conditions at times due to showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds expected to remain below SCA values tonight through
Saturday night.

Dry conditions expected Sunday into Tuesday with maybe afternoon
showers and thunderstorms. Wind gusts could reach small craft
advisory criteria on Tuesday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Water levels are running a good 3/4 to 1 ft above astronomical
normals. Minor flooding may occur at Annapolis/Straits Point
with the nighttime high tide cycle.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/IMR



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