Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 280040 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 840 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain over the area through early Sunday. Weak Low pressure may affect the region Memorial Day through Tuesday. Weak high pressure builds for the middle and latter part of next week. A cold front may push through the region at the end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are losing intensity as the sun sets this evening. Showers will still be possible this evening across north-central MD and the Shenandoah Valley and surrounding ridges. Dry conditions expected after midnight. Warm and moist conditions expected tonight and patchy fog is expected in low- lying areas especially where rain occurred this evening. Guidance shows significant height rises over the region tonight through Sat which should greatly inhibit t-storm coverage Sat but a few pop-up showers still possible mainly northwest part of fcst area. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Ridge along the mid-Atlc coast will start shifting east Sat night as tropical disturbance/tropical storm makes landfall on the SC coast. Deep moisture will advect rapidly northward early on Sun as deep layered SSE flow establishes across the mid-Atlc. Showers appear likely Sun through the first half of Memorial Day. Widespread clouds should keep temps down. Could be some heavy rains over srn MD as tropical remnants track across ern NC and sern VA. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Cold front approaches from the northwest on Monday as a low pressure system slowly tracks north- northeast along the coast. Surface high pressure briefly builds on Tuesday before cold front moves across the area later that day. The front stalls over the Delmarva Peninsula on Wednesday... near our area. The front then lifts north as a warm front on Thursday with another cold front moving across our CWA on Friday. There is disagreement on the guidance as timing and location of these systems... so keeping a chance of showers and thunderstorms for most of our CWA during this period. High temperatures will be around the 80s and lows around the 60s. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... -SHRA tapering off this evening. Patchy light fog or haze overnight. Brief period of sub-vfr vsbys possible early Saturday morning. Isolated t-storms possible Sat mainly at KMRB. Deeper moisture spreads northward Sun on deep layered SSE flow as tropical disturbance makes landfall on the SC coast. VFR conditions expected during this period. Chance of showers each day may produce sub-VFR conditions to the terminals. && .MARINE... Brought SCA conditions sooner to the lower bay as winds are gusting to 21 knots. Model trends show winds diminishing after 06z tonight. Sub-SCA conditions expected during this period as winds will be below SCA criteria. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ533-534- 537-541-543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LFR NEAR TERM...HAS/LFR SHORT TERM...LFR LONG TERM...IMR AVIATION...HAS/IMR/LFR MARINE...HAS/IMR/LFR

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