Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 190156 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 956 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THEN WILL REMAIN NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EAST OFF THE JERSEY COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR AN EASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST HAS LED TO INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE AREA WITH SHOWERS BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA. GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WITH THE GFS AND HRRR BRINGING SHOWERS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHILE THE NAM KEEPS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS. WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS/HRRR IN BRINGING CHANCE POPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SINCE THEY SEEM TO BE VERIFYING BETTER THIS EVENING WHEN COMPARING IT TO THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. THIS MEANS THAT LOCATIONS NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 SHOULD BE DRY BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL MARYLAND AS WELL AS THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF WASHINGTON DC. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS...CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY. ON SATURDAY...THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...BUT THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD. EXPECT A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE DAY DUE A PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...BUT EVEN ACROSS THESE AREAS MUCH OF THE TIME WILL TURN OUT DRY. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WEAK WAVE COULD BRUSH A FEW SHOWERS INTO LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND...OTHERWISE CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL MAINLY BE RELEGATED NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN CREEPING UP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... INCREASING MOISTURE AND WEAK TO MODERATE PVA EXPECTED ACROSS CWA DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. MAIN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES BACK TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRYING IN NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR EXPECTED DURING THE VALID TAF PERIOD...WITH THICKENING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KMRB AND KCHO. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY ALONG WITH A BKN/OVC MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK. VFR LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND/MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS...BUT AT THIS TIME THESE LOOK TO MAINLY BE OF THE VFR VARIETY. TSRA CHANCE LOOKS MAINLY RELEGATED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN UNTIL WEDNESDAY.
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&& .MARINE... WEAK GRADIENT EXPECTED INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST. EASTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE TIME GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS. NO SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLD FRONT APPROACHES MID-WEEK. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BPP NEAR TERM...BJL SHORT TERM...BPP LONG TERM...CEM AVIATION...BJL/CEM/BPP MARINE...CEM/BPP

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