Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 040800 CCA AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 400 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT INTO NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 07Z...AREA OF 1010MB MSLP OVER WV WITH ANOTHER OVER SERN VA. THESE ARE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS LIFTED NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FROM NC. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TO AROUND DC TODAY WITH THE LOW TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. NORTH OF THIS TRACK/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE STABLE/NO THUNDER TODAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY HAS BEEN RATHER LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN COVERAGE AT BEST. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY COMING FROM WV WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH MOST NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WITH CATEGORIAL POPS FOR LOW QPF THROUGH MID MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ARC FROM ROUGHLY CUMBERLAND MD TO DC AND SOUTH. THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING...WITH PRECIP SHUNTED SOUTH OF MOST OF THE CWA BY SUNSET/FIREWORKS TIME. BOTTOM LINE...EXPECT AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH FROM THE FRONT/LOW. MAX TEMPS MID TO UPR 70S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT AND LOW 80S SOUTH. TONIGHT...PRECIP CLEARS AS DO THE CLOUDS. FOG DEVELOPS IN TYPICAL PIEDMONT AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 60S...UPR 60S URBAN.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
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BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE. SUNNY WITH A LIGHT/VARIABLE FLOW AND MAX TEMPS MID 80S.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST SUN NIGHT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BEGIN TO RETURN NWD IN DEEP LAYERED SRLY FLOW WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT SUN NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MON NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS DUE TO HIGH PWATS AOA 2.0 INCHES AND SINCE RAINS WILL BE NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. DRIER SW FLOW ESTABLISHES OVER THE AREA LATE TUE AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. LEE-SIDE TROFS APPEAR THE ONLY MECHANISM TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...WARMER AND HUMID WITH THE RISK OF ISOLD-SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY. FRONTS APPEAR TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK. SO CONSIDERABLY WARMER NEXT WEEK THAN IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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WEAK COLD FRONT/LOW ACROSS THE DC METROS TODAY...PUSHING SOUTH THIS EVENING. GENERALLY MVFR CONDS IN LIKELY RAIN ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH SCT TSTMS DC AND SOUTH. PATCHY FOG IN TYPICAL SPOTS TONIGHT...THEN VFR SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR CIGS APPEAR LIKELY FOR KCHO LATE SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON IN RAIN IMPROVING TO MVFR MON AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AGAIN MON NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY AT KBWI AND KMTN.
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&& .MARINE...
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SCA FOR SELY FLOW THIS MORNING...SHIFTING NLY THIS AFTERNOON AND GUSTING OVER SRN MD WATERS. SCA FOR SRN MD WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. NO HAZARDS TONIGHT/SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT BUT STRENGTHEN TUE-TUE NIGHT DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. THIS MAY REQUIRE SCA.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR DCZ001. MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MDZ011-014. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ017- 018. VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ054. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ532-540-542. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533- 534-537-543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ541. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ536.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BAJ/LFR NEAR TERM...BAJ SHORT TERM...BAJ LONG TERM...BAJ/LFR AVIATION...BAJ/LFR MARINE...BAJ/LFR

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