Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 130055 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 855 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move through the area this evening and become stationary across the Carolinas early in the week. Weak high pressure builds over the area Sunday and holds through mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Severe Thunderstorm Watch 448 continues for central and southern Maryland, Washington DC, portions of northern Virginia and surrounding waters until 11 PM. Thunderstorms that brought strong winds and large hail this afternoon/evening are moving south-southeastward across the southern and eastern DC suburbs at this time. Activity will continue to move away from DC and eventually south of the Tidal Potomac River late this evening. A cold front has moved into the Potomac Highlands with dewpts dropping and winds becoming NW. Although this front will move eastward overnight, there won`t be a strong surge of NW winds behind it. Light winds may result in patchy fog in low- lying areas into Sunday morning. Northerly winds and low humidity are expected Sunday. The cold front will stall across the Carolinas and bkn clouds will likely be present across Central VA Sunday. Temps in the low to mid 80s are expected. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Low clouds and a few showers will be possible Sun night into Mon as sfc flow turns onshore but it will remain too stable for t-storms. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Upper shortwave/surface reflection should depart to the east of the area Tuesday, leading to a drying trend through the middle of next week as high pressure builds. Decent model agreement through mid week, which includes a stark warming trend by Thursday. Models then diverge on timing/orientation of the next upper level wave and surface front that would in theory bring the next chance of organized precip. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... TSRA have moved south and east of the terminals this evening. -SHRA is still possible mainly at CHO/IAD through 3z. A cold front will cross the terminals overnight. Winds will become NW overnight however remain light to calm. Patchy fog is possible at MRB/CHO however confidence is low. VFR conditions expected Sunday. Fog is possible into Monday morning and flight restrictions may be warrented. Mainly VFR Tue-Wed. Patchy fog possible Tue night in areas that receive rain if dry advection isn`t strong enough prior to nightfall. NW flow AOB 10 kts. && .MARINE... Showers and thunderstorms will move across the waters this evening. Gusty winds and hail are possible with these storms and SMWs are highly likely. A cold front will cross the waters overnight and into Sunday morning. Winds will become NW and a surge of higher winds will likely move from north to south across the waters. At this time, winds are expected to stay under SCA criteria. Generally light winds expected mid-week as high pressure moves over the waters. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LFR NEAR TERM...HSK/LFR SHORT TERM...LFR LONG TERM...DFH AVIATION...HSK/DFH MARINE...HSK/DFH

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