Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
FXUS61 KLWX 140020 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
720 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2017
High pressure will briefly return for later tonight into
Tuesday. Another cold front will pass through Wednesday. High
pressure will build overhead late in the week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...High pressure will build
briefly over the region tonight leading to clear and cold
conditions. High clouds begin to increase toward daybreak. A few
very light showers or sprinkles are possible across the cntrl
part of the fcst area between 12Z-18Z Tue in waa pattern. Clouds
depart later in the afternoon. Have added a slight chance/chance
of showers and snow showers for the upslope areas.
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Clouds will continue to increase Tuesday night as the northern and
southern streams approach the Mid-Atlantic region. Moisture from the
northern stream will reach the Allegheny Front and snow showers
are expected to start Wednesday morning. The southern stream is
packed with more moisture however the cold front dropping down
from the northern stream system will shift the moisture further
south and across the SE U.S. Rain showers will likely clip the
Central Foothills to the Piedmont into Wed morning. Snow showers
will continue across the Allegheny Front into Thursday. One to
two inches is expected across this time at this time.
Clearing will likely happen across much of the region Wednesday
afternoon as the rain showers move to the south and east. Temps will
reach the 40s/L50s and 30s in the mtns.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper trough slowly
moves east and away from the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday, with
breezy northwesterly winds. Some upslope snow showers through
the evening hours. High pressure builds over the region on
Thursday night and into Saturday bringing a period of dry
conditions. Guidance suggests that an upper disturbance will
move from the Gulf region towards the Carolinas sometime between
Sunday night and Sunday morning increasing the PoPs over our
CWA. Upper ridge builds on Sunday and into Monday for another
period of dry conditions.
Temperatures will increase gradually from the 30s and 40s on
Thursday into the 50s and 60s on Sunday.
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions tonight with diminishing winds. VFR conditions
are expected for Tuesday through Wednesday night. Gusty
northwest winds will return behind a cold front Wednesday into
Wednesday night with gusts 25 to 30 knots possible.
Breezy and dry conditions on Thursday behind a front. Dry
conditions continue into Saturday and lighter wind speeds. Some
showers Saturday night as an upper level disturbance moves near
by. VFR conditions expected during this period.
Winds will continue to diminish tonight as high pressure builds
overhead. A southerly flow will develop for Tuesday through
Tuesday night as high pressure moves offshore. Winds may be
close to SCA criteria...but confidence is too low for a headline
at this time.
A cold front will pass through the waters Wednesday and gusty
northwest winds are expected behind the front through Wednesday
Breezy and dry conditions on Thursday behind a front.
Dry conditions continue into Saturday and lighter wind speeds. Some
showers Saturday night as an upper level disturbance moves near by.
Small craft advisory may be needed for Thursday into Thursday night.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ531>534-537-
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ530-538-