Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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FXUS61 KLWX 160052
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
852 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate the region through Sunday. Tropical
Storm Jose is forecast to move north as a hurricane along...but
well offshore of...the Atlantic coast early next week. See the
National Hurricane Center bulletins for the latest information
on Jose.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
There was enough instability this afternoon under the weakening
upper trough to trigger a few isolated showers. Any remaining
ones will dissipate shortly, with dry conditions expected
overnight. Cloud cover this evening has seen a downward trend as
instability lessens, however with subsidence inversion aloft
associated with ridge of surface and low level high pressure,
some moisture will likely be trapped leading to areas of lingering
stratocumulus. Where skies can remain clear, with light winds
and falling temperatures, areas of patchy fog likely to
develop. Lows tonight will fall into the 50s and 60s, locally
near 70F in the urban centers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Large scale upper level ridge will be building overhead
Saturday and Sunday, but a weakness from Irma`s remnants will
remain over our region. This combined with warming temps but
lingering moisture could once again get a stray shower going,
potentially anywhere, but most likely over the terrain. Highs
Saturday will be a little warmer than today, with mid 80s more
common, but may drop a little Sunday with just a little cooling
aloft.

Saturday night will be almost a carbon copy of tonight...
dissipating clouds followed by patchy fog in the favored spots.
Lows look to be a little milder than tonight. However, by Sunday
night, Jose may start to influence the weather, with a bit more
cloud cover and perhaps a few showers making their way into the
middle bay. Lows will remain mild, in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Weather conditions in the long term period will highly depend
on how close to the shore Jose tracks. Most likely it will stay
relatively dry with perhaps a few showers with the
northeasterly flow while Jose moves north to our east. The
future track of Jose is highly uncertain with large variations
in the model guidance, though consensus and the NHC forecast
keep what is currently Tropical Storm Jose offshore.

At this time, impacts from Jose in our CWA appear to be very
little if any assuming the storm remains in its projected
northward movement remaining offshore of the U.S. East coast.

Thursday into Friday weather conditions look dry with upper
ridge building in.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Predominantly VFR expected through Sunday night, especially
between the hours of 12z-04z. Each night and early morning will
run the risk of low clouds and patchy fog. For tonight, greatest
likelihood of IFR conditions are at CHO and MRB, with chances
also at IAD/BWI. DCA/MTN not expected to experience
restrictions.

VFR conditions expected Monday-Wednesday, though
this is dependent on Jose staying offshore. A track closer to
the coast or inland would significantly alter this forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine hazards expected through Sunday night with high
pressure and light winds.

Wind gusts are expected to reach Small Craft Advisory criteria
Monday into Wednesday based on the latest forecast track for
Jose. Any track shift could alter this forecast, resulting in
either higher or lower wind speeds than currently forecast.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels remain a little elevated. They should remain below
minor thresholds for the next couple cycles. By Sunday and
especially Monday, the approach of Jose may further elevate
them, resulting in minor flooding at sensitive sites. Depending
on how close the storm gets, moderate is not impossible, but
uncertainty on this is very high at the moment.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...MM/RCM
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...IMR/RCM
AVIATION...MM/IMR/RCM
MARINE...MM/IMR/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RCM



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