Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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FXUS61 KLWX 150226 AAA
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
926 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A cold front will pass through the region Wednesday.
High pressure builds overhead Friday and holds into early next
week.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...Moisture ahead of a southern
stream disturbance will move into the Charlottesville and
Fredericksburg areas overnight. Light rain is expected through
late morning in those areas with QPF generally 0.1 inches or
less. Over the Appalachians, moisture from a northern stream
disturbance will move into the mtns after 06Z with light snow
expected with less than inch of snow. Sharpening mid-upper level
trough and associated cdfnt with nrn stream will move across
the area around 18Z Wed triggering convective rain and snow
showers. Have rain for southern MD and rain/snow for areas west
of I-95 to U.S. Route 15 and snow west of there. These showers
may produce strong gusty winds that could result in brief gale
force and wind advisory gusts. No wind advisories are
anticipated due to brief and convective nature of gusts, but the
showers may require special marine warnings.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Turning colder and brisk Wed night as two streams phase and sfc
cyclogenesis occurs well offshore. Upslope precip will increase
again with 1-2 inches of snow expected along the Allegheny
front. Some of the snow showers may be able to make east of the
mountain barrier given strengthening flow and Froude numbers
exceeding 1.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Quiet weather in the long term forecast starting Friday as
high pressure is centered to our south. Northwesterly flow will
become southwesterly as high pressure moves off the southeast
coast Friday night into Saturday, increasing the weekend
temperatures in the 50s and 60s.

An upper level disturbance could increase PoPs for Saturday night
into Sunday morning as it moves to our south... but seeing mainly
dry conditions over our CWA, and little impact to temperatures. High
pressure builds back after this disturbance returning the dry
weather late Sunday into Tuesday with high temperatures in the 50s
and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Vfr conditions this afternoon through Thursday. Winds becoming
west-northwest 15 to 20 knots gusts 25 knots Wednesday night
through Thursday.

Dry conditions expected Friday into Saturday, with
maybe some showers Saturday night into early Sunday as an upper
level disturbance moves near by. Dry conditions return Sunday into
Monday. VFR conditions expected during this period.

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft advisories are in effect Wednesday through Thursday
for gusty northwest winds. Showers Wed afternoon may produce
strong gusty winds and require SMWs. A gale warning may be
needed for portions of the waters Thursday.

Dry conditions expected Friday into Saturday, with maybe some
showers Saturday night into early Sunday as an upper level
disturbance moves near by. Dry conditions return Sunday into
Monday. Winds expected to remain below the small craft advisory
threshold, so not anticipating an advisory during this period at
this moment.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Wednesday to 6 AM EST Thursday
     for ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLW
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...KLW
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...IMR/KLW
MARINE...IMR/KLW



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