Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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345 FXUS61 KLWX 261821 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 221 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING THEN BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN ITS WAKE AND HOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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MRNG BNDRY SURVIVED LONGER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. ITS REMNANTSCAN BE FOUND ACRS CENTRAL VA ATTM. IT LEFT BHD RESIDUAL CLDCVR FOR MUCH OF THE CWFA...BUT CLRG DVLPD IN CENTRAL/ERN PA. MID-LVL LAPSE RATES RECOVERED IN THAT AREA. WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR...TSRA BLOSSOMED IN AREA OF BEST HEATING. WHILE THESE STORMS SPECIFICALLY MAY NOT AFFECT CWFA...THE BELT OF FVRBL EFFECTIVE SHEAR EXTENDS ALL THE WAY WEST ACRS PA. THEREFORE...ADDTL STORMS SHUD DVLP. AS DISCUSSED ERLR...SNDGS FCST CONTAIN INVERTED-V SIGNATURE. STRONG TO PERHAPS DMGG WIND GUSTS REMAIN PSBL. WITH THAT IN MIND...A SVR TSTM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE MID ATLC. NRN MD INCL BALT CITY ARE INCL IN THAT WATCH AREA. T-STORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CHARLOTTESVILLE THEN WANE BY MIDNIGHT AS COOLER MORE STABLE AIR MOVES IN BEHIND FRONT. A STRATUS LAYER FCST TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... MUCH COOLER WED AS COOL WEDGE ESTABLISHES. INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT AS WARM AIR OVERRUNS SFC FRONT ACROSS VA. BENEFICIAL RAINS EXPECTED OF GENERALLY HALF TO ONE INCH THROUGH EARLY FRI. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE ON THU AS WEAK LOW MOVES ALG STALLED OUT FRONT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SLOWLY MOVING/STALLED FRONT WILL STILL BE LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH. A COUPLE WEAK SFC WAVES WILL BE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT...AND A 500 MB VORT MAX WILL SWING ACROSS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER TO DRIZZLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. WHILE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE WILL MAINTAIN LLVL EASTERLY FLOW...ESSENTIALLY A CAD WEDGE. THEREFORE EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS TO PERSIST AND CAN/T RULE OUT A LITTLE DRIZZLE. DESPITE SIMILAR SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS...00Z GFS DIVERGES A BIT ON WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE AND OVERRUNNING MOISTURE REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. ECMWF...GEM...AND SOME GEFS MEMBERS KEEP PRECIP TO A MIN...BUT WOULD EXPECT A RELATIVELY CLOUDY DAY REGARDLESS. BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. FOR TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLE GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO WARM OVER THE WEEKEND WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND CLOUDS. HIGHS SHOULD RUN BELOW NORMAL. MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON LOW TRACK/WARM FRONTAL PROGRESSION...AND THIS WILL ALSO HELP DETERMINE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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MRNG CLDS THINNING OUT. AFTN CU HV QUITE DVLPD YET INVOF TERMINALS...BUT BELIEVE THEY WL BY MID AFTN. AFTN TSRA THUS FAR HV FORMED IN ERN PA...BUT BELT OF FVRBL SHEAR EXTENDS ALL THE WAY ACRS PA. THEREFORE...THERES A GOOD CHC AT AFTN/ELY EVE SHRA/TSRA...SOME OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS. BEST ESTIMATE ATTM THAT PEAK GUST POTL RANGES SOMEWHERE ARND 30-35 KT. AN ISOL GUST MAY GET TO 50 KT...SPCLY MTN. STORMS SHUD EXIT BY 00Z...PERHAPS AN HR OR TWO LATER CHO. STRATUS DECK FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS. MVFR CIGS THROUGH FRI ALONG WITH RAIN UNDER COOL SFC WEDGE. MVFR (PERHAPS LOCALLY IFR) CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE. CIGS MAY IMPROVE SATURDAY INTO THE VFR CATEGORY BUT LIKELY WON/T SCATTER OUT.
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&& .MARINE... SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. T-STORMS LKLY TO DVLP MID-LT AFTN...PERHAPS INTO ELY EVNG FOR MID BAY/LWR PTMC. XPCTG GUSTY WINDS INVOF TSRA...AND MAY REQUIRE ISSUANCE OF SMW/S. NE FLOW MAY ENHANCE SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A STALLED FRONT. FORECAST WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS FOR NOW. LIGHT NE/E FLOW WILL PERSIST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. && .FIRE WEATHER... GUSTY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE FIRE WX CONCERNS TODAY. MUCH COOLER WED AND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THICK CLOUDS AND RAIN. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LFR NEAR TERM...HTS/LFR SHORT TERM...LFR LONG TERM...ADS AVIATION...HTS/LFR/ADS MARINE...HTS/LFR/ADS FIRE WEATHER...HTS/LFR

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