Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 151848 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 248 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE LEADS TO DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NRN MD AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. THE NRN CU FIELD IS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD AIR ALOFT. THE SRN CU FIELD ALSO IN RESPONSE TO COLDER AIR ALOFT BUT NEAR A COLD FRONT THAT IS ACROSS SOUTHERN VA. LITTLE FORCING NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC AND DRY CONDITIONS AT THE SFC WILL LEAD TO A DRY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND CLOUDS WILL DISSAPATE BY SUNSET WITH A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS NEAR THE PIEDMONT AND SRN MD AS THE COLD FRONT IS STILL NEARBY. FCST MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO NEAR 60 IN THE METROS LEADING TO ANOTHER EVENING WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY LEADING TO ANOTHER DRY SUNNY DAY FOR THE MID ATLANTIC. FCST MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...LOW TO MID 80S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST SUNDAY AND LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID WEST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS EARLY SUNDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISO-SCT AND WILL LIKELY DISSPATE AS IT MOVES EAST AND SOUTH. WENT WITH THE SREF MEAN FOR COVERAGE SUNDAY. LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SHOWERS WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDER. COVERAGE WILL DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE MID WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC BY MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ENTER THE HIGHLANDS MONDAY MORNING AND MOVE EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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500MB SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER 500MB SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY TO SOUTHERN ONTARIA/SOUTHWEST QUEBEC THROUGH FRIDAY. A SURFACE LOW CENTER OVER OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY CROSSING THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. GREATEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. SHRA IS POSSIBLE AT MRB SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
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&& .MARINE...
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WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA WITH W WINDS 10-15KTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL BE W-SW AT 5-10 KTS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY. AT THIS TIME...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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ANOMOLIES HAVE DROPPED TO NEAR 0 ACROSS THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY TODAY. ANOMOLIES WILL BE AROUND A HALF FOOT AT THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC WHICH SHOULD KEEP LEVELS BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJL/HAS NEAR TERM...HAS SHORT TERM...HAS LONG TERM...CEM AVIATION...HAS MARINE...HAS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS

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