Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 151412 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1012 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY...THEN PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND A LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...RANGING FROM THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THTE RDG WL APPROACH FM THE S TNGT AHD OF A CDFNT ARRIVING FM THE W. BY FAR...MOST OF THE NRN STREAM PVA ENERGY WL REMAIN ACRS NY/PA. THUS THE TWO AREAS NEVER REALLY JOIN FORCES...RESULTING IN A DISORGANIZED UPA PTTN. QPF...IF ANY...SHUD BE LGT. GDNC POPS LWR OVERALL. THINK THATS A GOOD IDEA. WHATEVER SCT SHRA WE WL HV MOST LKLY WL OCCUR OVNGT. DEWPTS WL BE RISING TAFTN-TNGT INTO THE 50S TO PERHAPS 60F. USED THAT AS A GUIDE FOR MIN-T FCST. MET MOS CAME CLOSEST...BLENDED W/ GOING FCST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... CDFNT WL CLEAR AREA BY DAYBRK TUE. ITS LOOKING REAL DOUBTFUL TO HV ANY LINGERING SHRA INTO ELY TUE...AS BINOVC SHUD BE DVLPG BY SUNRISE. CAA MOST NOTEABLE WX FEATURE...PROVIDING A WELL MIXED ATMOS. BUFKIT SUGGESTS 20 KT AT TOP OF LYR. HV GUSTY WINDS IN GRIDS DOWN PTMC AND ACRS MD. AM XPCTG CLDS TO BREAK APART DURING THE MRNG. MOSUN MOST OF THE DAY. COMPRESSIONAL WARMING MAY OFFSET SOME OF THE CAA. INCORPORATED THE TWO CONCEPTS FOR MAXT. FCST CHGS /SLGTLY COOLER/ W OF BLURDG AND ACRS NRN MD. AS HIPRES BLDS TUE NGT...SHUD HV CLR/CALM NGT...WHICH WL EQUATE TO ANTHR COOL NGT. UTILIZED THE COOLER MOS OFFERINGS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE IF NOT CALM DURING THE DAY WITH FCST MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE MTNS TO LOW TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS ONTARIO THURSDAY. ECMWF IS MORE PRONOUNCED THAN THE GFS WITH THE FEATURE BUT BOTH HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE WITHIN THE COLUMN. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AND LIGHT NRLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. FCST MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE MTNS AND LOT O MID 70S ELSEWHERE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEDGE SHOULD SETUP BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE. THIS SETUP WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THIS WEEKEND. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR CONDS WL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE DAY INTO THE EVNG. A WK CDFNT WL CROSS THE TERMINALS OVNGT. ATTM...AM THINKING THAT SHRA CVRG SHUD BE SCT AND LGT IN NATURE. NOT WORTH INTRO RESTRICTIONS INTO FCST ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE REGION. NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AT THIS TIME.
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&& .MARINE...
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WINDS WILL SHIFT ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. WL HV A SLY FLOW DVLP AHD OF AN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE AND CDFNT TONIGHT. HV CAPPED WNDS AT 10 KT FOR THE EVNG AND 15 KT FOR THE OVNGT HRS. CFP COMING NEAR SUNRISE TUE. A NWLY SURGE BHD THE FNT SHUD SUPPORT DECENT MIXING. HV ISSUED SCA ALL WATERS FOR 20 KT GUSTS DURING THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE WATERS MID TO LATE WEEK.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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WATER LVLS AVERAGING AROUND 3/4 FT ABV ASTRO NORMS. THESE POSITIVE DEPARTURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING TIDE CYCLE. DO THINK THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS SINCE THE HIGH TIDE WILL BE THE LOWER OF THE TWO ASTRONOMICAL NORMS. THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING INTO LATE TONIGHT IS LOOKING HIGHER. ALL GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THAT. THEREFORE...ADVYS APPEAR PROBABLE FOR TONIGHT.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HTS NEAR TERM...BJL/HTS SHORT TERM...HTS LONG TERM...HAS AVIATION...BJL/HAS/HTS MARINE...BJL/HAS/HTS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL

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