Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KLWX 240726
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
326 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016
An upper-level disturbance will pass through the area today. High
pressure will build into the region tonight through Sunday. The
high will move off the coast Sunday night into Monday and a cold
front will pass through Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Mild and humid conditions are across the Mid-Atlantic region this
morning as a frontal boundary remains in place. High pressure is
across the Great Lakes and New England this morning.
As of 730z... Fog has formed in some low lying areas early this
morning. Clouds are moving into the region so widespread fog is not
anticipated however patchy fog may cause sudden reductions in vsbys.
The Mid-Atlantic region is still susceptible to showers
and thunderstorms today as a warm and humid airmass remains in
place. A shortwave trough co-located with an upper level jet will
swing through the region this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop late this morning and afternoon as
conditions destabilize. There is uncertainty with the amt of cloud
cover today. As of now...low clouds are expected to hang around
through the morning. Clouds should lift by afternoon and scatter out
This may lead to increased instability across a region that moderate
shear profiles. Hi-res guidance is showing disorganized iso-sct
convection by this afternoon with the main threat for showers and
thunderstorms west of the Blue Ridge mountains. This region will
have higher sfc dewpts and therefore more SBCAPE. There is a slight
chance from severe thunderstorms today across VA....DC and southern
MD. Further north...N-NE flow will likely keep conditions more
The shortwave trough will move off the coast tonight. Showers will
linger into the evening hours especially across the SW portion of
the lookout area.
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will move into the region Saturday and N- NE winds
are expected. Low clouds are likely Saturday morning and should
break by afternoon with the exception of the highlands where low
clouds will persist. Max temps in the low 80s expected Saturday.
High pressure will build into the region further Sat night and
calm and clear conditions expected.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will remain overhead Sunday...bringing dry and
seasonably warm conditions along with low humidity. The high
will move off the coast Sunday night into Monday and a cold front
will approach from the west later Monday. A southerly flow will
usher in more humid conditions ahead of the boundary...and this
may lead to some showers and thunderstorms...especially during the
afternoon and evening hours.
The cold front will pass through Tuesday...bringing the chance for
a few more showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will return
for Wednesday and Thursday behind the cold front...bringing cooler
and less humid conditions.
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low clouds are moving into the region from the NW this morning.
Sub-vfr conditions expected this morning. Patchy fog has also
been observed outside the terminals. Think the main impact this
morning will be mvfr cigs through mid-morning. Cigs should lift by
this afternoon and prevailing vfr conditions are expected.
SHRA/VCTS is possible this afternoon with the best chance of TS at
CHO. Heavy rain and gusty winds possible this afternoon.
SHRA will wane this evening. N-NE winds expected at the terminals
and low cigs are expected tonight with a better chance for IFR
conditions. Fog is also possible tonight into Saturday morning
causing sub-vfr vsbys. Sub-vfr cigs possible Sat night.
High pressure will bring vfr conditions Sunday into Monday.
A few showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon into
Monday night. A cold front will pass through Tuesday...bringing
the chance for a few more showers and thunderstorms.
N-NE winds expected on the waters through Saturday night.
Showers are expected through this afternoon. Showers will likely
cause brief periods of gusty winds. At this time...coverage seems to
be isolated and no hazards are expected.
High pressure will remain over the waters Sunday before moving off
to the east Sunday night. Winds will turn toward the southeast
during this time...but speeds should remain below sca criteria.
An approaching cold front Monday may trigger some showers and
thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. A few more
showers and thunderstorms are possible Tuesday into Tuesday
night as the cold front passes. Gusty winds are possible in any
thunderstorms that develop. High pressure will build during the
middle portion of next week.