Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 152231 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 631 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. THE PARENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A BRIEF REPRIEVE TAKES SHAPE BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH SLIDES COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TO BEGIN THE UPCOMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... RER SENT FOR IAD DAILY RECORD RAFL. WE HV BEEN TURNING DOWN THE VCP POWER ON THE RDR...AND CUTTING BACK ON THE POPS/WX IN THE GRIDS. BULK OF PCPN HAS NOW MOVED ONTO THE DELMARVA. MARKED DECREASE TO THE WNDS POST FROPA. GIVEN WET GRND AND LGT WNDS...FOG SEEMS TO BE A REAL PSBLTY. GDNC HAS BACKED OFF ON DENSE FOG...WHICH IS CONTRARY TO ITS BIAS. GIVEN THIS AND ANTICIPATED CAA...WL GO W/ AREAS OF FOG BUT NOTING EXTREME...VSBYS 2-3 MI. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... THE UPR LOW WL BE AFFECTING CWFA THU. WHILE THERES NOT MUCH WIND...MARGINAL INSTBY AND DECENT MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WL BE SUFFICIENT TO REINVIGORATE CLDS AND INITIATE SCT SHRA. BEST SUPPORT IN THE MTNS...WHERE POPS RAISED TO LKLY. KEPT SCT POPS ELSW... INFUSING A LTL MORE TIMING TO GRIDS. W/ LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...PCPN WL END BY EVE AND CLDS WL ERODE BY MIDNGT. WL STILL HV A GRADIENT OVNGT...SO RADL COOLING WONT BE GREAT. TEMP FCSTS LEAN TWD GFS FOR MAXT AND NAM ON MIN-T...WHICH TEND TO BE THE BETTER PERFORMERS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LARGE SCALE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY FROM THE WAVE WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...IT WILL BRING A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND HIGHS BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY...BRINGING THE THREAT OF RAIN WITH IT. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW IN THIS EVENT AT THIS TIME AS MODELS ARE NOT RESOLVING A VERY POTENT SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN TO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THINK WE WL HV A FOG ISSUE AFTR MDNGT...BUT LKLY MVFR/IFR CATEGORY. MRNG RESTRICTIONS WL DSPT SOON AFTR SUNRISE. UPR LOW WL SWING THRU THU...WHICH WL YIELD CU AND SCT SHRA. CIGS MAY START OUT AT MVFR BEFORE LCL/S LIFT. THE SLOW-MOVING AND PERSISTENT UPPER LOW WILL ACTUALLY MAKE A QUICK EXIT BY EARLY FRI...ALLOWING A BRIEF ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE ON FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND. BREEZY WLY WINDS ABOUT THE ONLY WX-HAZARD OF NOTE SAT AND SUN. A FAIRLY DRY FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MORE FALL-LIKE WX RETURNS. && .MARINE... THE EXIT OF AN UPPER LOW BY EARLY FRI WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A QUIET COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE WATERS TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. A LIGHT S-SW WIND OVER THE BAY ON FRI AFTN. A SECONDARY WAVE OF DRY BUT BREEZY LOW PRESSURE WILL CAUSE GUSTY WINDS ON SAT AND SUN AFTNS. SMALL CRAFT POTENTIAL EACH DAY. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THIS WAVE TO START THE WORK WEEK. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... TIDAL DEPARTURES RUNNING 1.0-1.5 FT. THE DAYTIME TIDE CAME IN UNDER MINOR CRITERIA. BASED ON CURRENT DEPARTURES...WHICH ARENT XPCTD TO INCREASE...MINOR FLOODING BECOMING LESS LKLY TNGT. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ532>534-537-543. && $$ UPDATE...WOODY! PRVS...HTS/GMS/JCE

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