Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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772 FXUS61 KLWX 240726 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 326 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An upper-level disturbance will pass through the area today. High pressure will build into the region tonight through Sunday. The high will move off the coast Sunday night into Monday and a cold front will pass through Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Mild and humid conditions are across the Mid-Atlantic region this morning as a frontal boundary remains in place. High pressure is across the Great Lakes and New England this morning. As of 730z... Fog has formed in some low lying areas early this morning. Clouds are moving into the region so widespread fog is not anticipated however patchy fog may cause sudden reductions in vsbys. The Mid-Atlantic region is still susceptible to showers and thunderstorms today as a warm and humid airmass remains in place. A shortwave trough co-located with an upper level jet will swing through the region this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late this morning and afternoon as conditions destabilize. There is uncertainty with the amt of cloud cover today. As of now...low clouds are expected to hang around through the morning. Clouds should lift by afternoon and scatter out some. This may lead to increased instability across a region that moderate shear profiles. Hi-res guidance is showing disorganized iso-sct convection by this afternoon with the main threat for showers and thunderstorms west of the Blue Ridge mountains. This region will have higher sfc dewpts and therefore more SBCAPE. There is a slight chance from severe thunderstorms today across VA....DC and southern MD. Further north...N-NE flow will likely keep conditions more stable. The shortwave trough will move off the coast tonight. Showers will linger into the evening hours especially across the SW portion of the lookout area. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will move into the region Saturday and N- NE winds are expected. Low clouds are likely Saturday morning and should break by afternoon with the exception of the highlands where low clouds will persist. Max temps in the low 80s expected Saturday. High pressure will build into the region further Sat night and calm and clear conditions expected. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure will remain overhead Sunday...bringing dry and seasonably warm conditions along with low humidity. The high will move off the coast Sunday night into Monday and a cold front will approach from the west later Monday. A southerly flow will usher in more humid conditions ahead of the boundary...and this may lead to some showers and thunderstorms...especially during the afternoon and evening hours. The cold front will pass through Tuesday...bringing the chance for a few more showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will return for Wednesday and Thursday behind the cold front...bringing cooler and less humid conditions. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Low clouds are moving into the region from the NW this morning. Sub-vfr conditions expected this morning. Patchy fog has also been observed outside the terminals. Think the main impact this morning will be mvfr cigs through mid-morning. Cigs should lift by this afternoon and prevailing vfr conditions are expected. SHRA/VCTS is possible this afternoon with the best chance of TS at CHO. Heavy rain and gusty winds possible this afternoon. SHRA will wane this evening. N-NE winds expected at the terminals and low cigs are expected tonight with a better chance for IFR conditions. Fog is also possible tonight into Saturday morning causing sub-vfr vsbys. Sub-vfr cigs possible Sat night. High pressure will bring vfr conditions Sunday into Monday. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon into Monday night. A cold front will pass through Tuesday...bringing the chance for a few more showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... N-NE winds expected on the waters through Saturday night. Showers are expected through this afternoon. Showers will likely cause brief periods of gusty winds. At this time...coverage seems to be isolated and no hazards are expected. High pressure will remain over the waters Sunday before moving off to the east Sunday night. Winds will turn toward the southeast during this time...but speeds should remain below sca criteria. An approaching cold front Monday may trigger some showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. A few more showers and thunderstorms are possible Tuesday into Tuesday night as the cold front passes. Gusty winds are possible in any thunderstorms that develop. High pressure will build during the middle portion of next week. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJL NEAR TERM...HAS SHORT TERM...HAS LONG TERM...BJL AVIATION...BJL/HAS MARINE...BJL/HAS

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