Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 260849 AAB AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 449 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015 UPDATE TO INCLUDE MISSING CLIMATE SECTION .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SRN VA AND NE NC TODAY AND TONIGHT AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTHWEST WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS DELMARVA THIS MORNING. THE BOUNDARY IS STRETCHED WESTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED ON THE WEST COAST. THE MID-ATLANTIC IS BETWEEN SYSTEMS THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST ACROSS DELMARVA AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW HAS LED TO LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING AND PATCHY FOG. SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN SYSTEMS HAS LED TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL CAUSE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME SWLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE SW THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY PERSISTS ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE TODAY WHICH SHOULD WILL LIMIT HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HEIGHT FALLS AND CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE TAKING PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO CAUSE SVR THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY PROPAGATE EASTWARD TONGIHT AND MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT MAINLY IN THE SW AND MAY LEAD TO STRONG/SVR STORMS LATE TONIGHT IN THIS REGION.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE MID-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW TO INTENSIFY ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT DRAWING IN ABUNDENT MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS. OVERRUNNING WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE SFC WARM FRONT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE. STRONG LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND MAY BE NUMEROUS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF COPIOUS AMTS OF RAINFALL DUE TO THE HIGH PWATS. AT THIS TIME...1-2 INCHES IS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMTS UP TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED IN AREAS THAT SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THE RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO TEMPS ONLY IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 ON SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...SRN MD EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT INTO THE WARM SECTOR SAT EVENING WITH A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES. BY 06Z SUN...FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE CLEARED THE AREA WITH MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINS PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO NJ AND NORTHEAST PA. COOL...BREEZY AND SHOWERY SUN WITH BKN CLOUDS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. TRANQUIL ON MON UNDER WEAK HIGH PRES WITH TEMPS WARMING UP. MOISTURE RETURNS TUE WITH SCT TSRA AS LEE SIDE TROF DEVELOPS. A FRONT COMES DOWN THU AND STALLS OVER THE AREA WITH A RISK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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MVFR/IFR CIGS DUE TO NE FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CHO. CHO SEEMS TO BE MIXING OUT AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR. MVFR/IFR VSBYS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY AT MRB THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING BEFORE SHRA MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. TSRA POSSIBLE AT CHO THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH IMPACT AVIATION DAY ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WIDESPREAD +SHRA WITH TSRA EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HEAVY RAIN WILL REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. TSRA IS ALSO POSSIBLE AND MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS WITH GUSTY WINDS. CIGS IMPROVING FROM IFR TO MVFR SAT NIGHT THEN TO VFR SUN BUT WITH BKN CIGS 040. BREEZY ALSO ON SUN. VFR REST OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .MARINE...
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NE-E WINDS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS TODAY. S WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VSBYS WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED DURING THIS TIME. BREEZY ON SUN WITH SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS DIMINISH MON.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD AT BWI WITH 9.98 INCHES. THIS BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF JUNE 1972 WITH 9.95. THAT JUNE MOST OF THAT RAIN WAS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE AGNES.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR DCZ001. MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MDZ003>006-011-013-014-016-501>508. VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ025>031-036>040-050>056-501>508. WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR WVZ050>053-055-501>506. MARINE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ535-538. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ531>534-536>543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ530- 535. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LFR NEAR TERM...HAS SHORT TERM...HAS LONG TERM...LFR AVIATION...HAS/LFR MARINE...HAS/LFR CLIMATE...

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