Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 240109 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 909 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... MID ATLANTIC ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER OH RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...WITH MID LVL RIDGING NUDGING EASTWARD. MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. PSBL PATCHY FOG IN WESTERN AREA VALLEYS. WITH WINDS BCMG LIGHT AND CLEARING SKIES...EXPECTING LOW TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT TEMPS. SFC-LLVL RDG AXIS MOVES CLSR TO CWFA TMRW-TMRW NGT. THUS CLDS SHUD BE FEWER AND WINDS LGTR. STILL A NW FLOW PTTN...BUT DEWPTS MAY TICK UPWD BY A DEGF OR TWO. MOS TEMP PROGS ALSO A CPL DEGF HIER... WHICH WERE REFLECTED IN BOTH MAXT FRI AND MIN-T FRI NGT. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE REGION WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY SUBSIDENCE HOWEVER FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE OR TWO MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION BUT AT THIS TIME MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE VA HIGHLANDS SAT AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY. FCST LOW TEMPS SAT NIGHT ARE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES SUNDAY AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE WARNING AREA. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE LOW FOR SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL RESOLUTION. FCST MAX TEMPS SUNDAY ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS SURFACE COOL FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND CHESAPEAKE BAY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COOL FRONT SHOULD STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE AS FAR NORTH AND WEST AS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WE`LL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH THE BETTER CHANCE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE EAST AS ANOTHER WAVE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ARRIVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY WITH EXCEPTION TO SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. THE CHANCE LINGERS IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND SHENANDOAH VALLEY THURSDAY AS A LEESIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS JUST WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL ENERGY PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NW FLOW GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS NEAR CHO AND DCA WITH ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MONDAY. && .MARINE... SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THROUGH SAT. S WINDS INCREASE ON THE WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SCA CONDTIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SEARS/HTS NEAR TERM...SEARS/HTS SHORT TERM...HAS LONG TERM...KLW AVIATION...SEARS/HAS MARINE...SEARS/HAS/HTS

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