Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 270053 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 853 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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THIS IS ONE OF THOSE DAYS WHERE THE ADAGE "IF YOU DON`T LK THE WX WAIT A MINUTE AND IT WL CHG" APPLIES. RAIN IN THE MRNG W/ TEMPS IN THE 50S...THEN SOARING INTO THE M70S AFTR THE WARM FNT PUSHED N...THEN BACK INTO THE 50S AS THE CD FNT MOVES THRU IN THE EVE. PEA SIZE HAIL WAS THE WORST WX REPORTED W/ THE CD FNT WHICH IS NOW THRU ALL XCPT LWR SRN MD. PRVS DSCN.. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS. A COLD RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST AREAS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS THROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR SNOW ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS OF THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS AND BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL MOST LIKELY BE CONFINED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA LATER IN THE DAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BUILD OVERHEAD DURING THIS TIME. A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN CHILLY CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ELSEWHERE...IT WILL BE DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY BUT A COUPLE SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO THE INSTABILITY FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BUILDING OVERHEAD. THERE WILL BE MORE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS OF THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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MODERATE CAA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT FRI AS THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH CLOUDY SKIES AND BREEZY WINDS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM PLUMMETING TOO MUCH. EXPECT SAT MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S NEAR THE BAY...LOW 30S IN THE METROS...AND MID/UPPER 20S TO THE WEST. LEFT A CHANCE OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN FAVORED WESTERN REGIONS...AND SLT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY RESIDUAL PRECIP. CAA CONTINUES DURING THE DAY SAT AND WINDS INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING DEPARTING SFC LOW. INSTABILITY SHOWERS WL BE PSBL FM LATE MRNG THRU LATE AFTN. GIVEN THE COLD LOW LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE W OF I-95 COULD SEE SNSH...ALTHO NO ACCUM IS XPCTD. SAT NIGHT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD...WITH TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE IN THE MID/LOW 20S AND IN THE TEENS TO THE WEST. IT COULD BE EVEN COLDER IF CLOUDS CLEAR SOONER.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SUNDAY WILL BE SUNNY...CONTINUED CAA THROUGH THE DAY AND BREEZY WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH COLDER...WITH APPARENT TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER REGION SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY MONDAY MORNING. PACKETS OF PVA EMBEDDED IN TROUGH ON NORTHERN TRACK CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THURSDAY. RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION AT MIDWEEK WILL FLATTEN AS TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF AREA AT WEEKS END. SURFACE HIGH ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD MOVING OFFSHORE ALLOWING COLD FRONT AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT AREA MONDAY. NEXT SESSION OF PRECIPITATION TRIGGERED BY LOW SYSTEM AT MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUPPORTS BRIEF PERIODS OF MIXED PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE. PASSAGE OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE PRODUCING WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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COLD FNT HAS NOW MOVED THRU THE MAJOR TAF SITES. WIND SHIFT HAS OCCURRED. CIGS ARE XPCTD TO STAY IN MVFR RNG THRU MID MRNG. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS BETWEEN 01Z AND 04Z THIS EVENING. A LINE OF GUSTY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...IT MAY BE MARGINAL ON FRIDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY DUE TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>543. && $$ UPDATE...WOODY! PRVS...BJL/HTS/IMR/JSE

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