Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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FXUS61 KLWX 291945
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
245 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An area of low pressure will move across the area
Wednesday with a cold frontal passage Wednesday night. High
pressure will return to the region Friday and Saturday. Low
pressure will approach the region Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...Showers will end soon over southern
MD with widespread low clouds and dense fog developing tonight as
pressure gradient weakens and ground remains wet. A dense fog
advzy may be needed later tonight. Showers begin to move in again
into western areas by 09Z and spread northeastward during the
morning hours as heights begin to fall as upper low over the upper
midwest moves across the western Great Lks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...Showers spread
northeast across the northern half Wed morning while southern
areas remain mostly dry but cloudy. Model soundings indicate
sufficient elevated instability and high equilibrium temperatures
during the morning hours suggesting there could be a few rumbles
of thunder early in the day. Cold frontal bdry begins to enter
western areas around 21Z with a narrow line of showers moving from
Higland county east to southern MD during the late afternoon and
early evening hours. Cdfnt clears the fcst area by 03Z Thu with
showers ending. A half to an inch of rain is expected.

Drying and turning colder on Thu under NW flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure centered to our
southwest will keep dry conditions Friday into Saturday... it
will then move overhead into early Sunday. High temperatures will
be in the 40s and 50s in most place, could reach the low 30s at
higher elevations.

Sunday into Monday guidance diverges in the timing of a low
pressure/upper level short wave that will move from the Gulf states
to the northeast sometime between Sunday afternoon and Monday night.
Precipitation associated to this system could be approaching the Mid-
Atlantic region as early as Sunday evening -based on the Euro. Warm
front moves through followed by a cold front. High pressure/dry
conditions for Tuesday. GFS has a similar scenario but happening
almost 24 hours later... with drier conditions Monday. Low
temperatures Sunday and Monday nights could allow for some snow
showers, mainly at higher elevations.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...LIFR/VLIFR conditions
tonight under light winds. Cigs and vsbys improve somewhat
tomorrow but remain mostly IFR through most of the day. Two rounds
of showers are expected one in the morning and then in the late
afternoon and evening. Cdfnt crosses the area by 06Z Thu with
shifting winds and showers ending improving flying conditions.

Dry conditions expected for Friday into part of Sunday with high
pressure dominating weather conditions... there VFR conditions
expected. On Sunday possible storm system could bring showers to
the terminals, allowing for conditions to become sub-VFR... but
there is still uncertainty on the timing of this system.

&&

.MARINE...Will cancel gale warning as gale force winds never
materialized. Gusty winds again tomorrow with gale force winds
possible mainly during the evening with gusty showers.

Dry conditions expected for Friday into part of Sunday with high
pressure dominating weather conditions. Gusty winds possible
Friday into Sunday... so a small craft advisory could be possible
during this period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Coastal flood advzy issued for southeast
Harford, southeast Baltimore and Anne Arundel counties where
anomalies of 1.5 to 2.0 feet expected.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 1 AM EST
     Wednesday for MDZ508.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for MDZ014.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST
     this evening for MDZ011.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ531-536-
     539.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ530-
     535-538.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Wednesday for
     ANZ530-535-538.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST
     Wednesday for ANZ532>534-537-540>543.


&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...IMR/LFR
MARINE...IMR/LFR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LFR



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