Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 150356
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1056 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the area again through
Sunday night. A stationary front over the southern mid-Atlantic
states will return north as a warm front Tuesday and Tuesday
night. A weak cold front will push through the area Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A wave of low pressure will continue to move across the Mid-
aTlantic region tonight. Sfc high pressure is over the region
resulting in winds less than 5 mph. Temperatures range from the
U30S/L40s across central VA to the low 30s across northern MD. A
strong warm nose as evident on the 00z IAD raob has led to
freezing rain across areas adjacent to PA and around the Baltimore
metro. A winter weather advisory and freezing rain advisory are in
effect until 4 am when rain moves out of the region. Northwest
winds will begin after midnight as high pressure from the Ohio
Valley bleeds over the Highlands. Dry air advection will occur
into Sunday morning. Low level moisture may linger longer along
the Allegheny Front and drizzle/fz drizzle is possible into the
morning hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Clouds will scatter out quickly during the morning becoming clear
by afternoon under strengthening NNW flow. Temperatures will rise
into the mid 40s. There could be enough lift and saturation over
the central Shenandoah valley for some light rain or drizzle
Sunday afternoon. Deeper moisture will start spreading back again
into the area Sun night and Mon as a storm system begins to
organize over the mid section of the country. Any precip looks to
be light and in the form of rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure offshore the eastern U.S. Coast will interact with
a low pressure system over the Great Lakes region Tuesday and
Tuesday night to produce a mild southerly flow. Along with milder
temperatures will be the threat for rain, moderate at times, later
on Tuesday into Tuesday night.

An associated cold front will move across the region as the low
pressure system pushes across northern New England Wednesday into
Wednesday night. The chance for rain may linger Wednesday, but then
should taper to partial clearing skies, cooler temperatures, and
perhaps some upslope snow showers in the higher elevations of the
Appalachians.

High pressure should build across the region Thursday and Thursday
night before moving offshore the eastern U.S. Coast by Friday. Drier
conditions with seasonable to mild temperatures are anticipated each
period.

A warm front should work its way northward up the Appalachian Front
later Friday into Friday night, bringing a chance for a few rain
showers.

During the day Saturday, a second, more stronger warm front could
work its way northward across the central and eastern parts of our
region. Even milder air and the chance for rain showers exist with
this warm front as well.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-RA will continue this evening before ending by midnight. IFR/LIFR
conditions are expected outside the rain and into the overnight
hours. Conditions will likely improve in the early morning hours
as NNW flow strenthens. VFR conditions expected Sunday and Sunday
night.

Clouds return Sunday night into Monday. -RA is expected mainly at
MRB/CHO. There is a slight chance of -FZRA at MRB into Monday
morning. Cig restrictions are possible Monday-Monday night.

Mvfr or ifr conditions Tuesday. Ifr to lifr conditions Tuesday night
with rain showers increasing in coverage. Winds south around 5 knots
Tuesday, becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots Tuesday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Light and variable winds tonight. Northerly channeling will
increase Sunday morning. Gusts around 18kts are expected across
the lower Tidal Potomac and south of Drum Point and Tangier Sound.
A SCA is in effect through mid-day Sunday.

Light winds expected on the waters through Monday night.

No marine hazards Tuesday and Tuesday night.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for MDZ003>006-
     501-502-507.
     Freezing Rain Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for MDZ011-503-
     505-506-508.
VA...None.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for WVZ051-503-
     504.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to noon EST Sunday for ANZ534-
     537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...HSK/LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...HSK/LFR/KLW
MARINE...HSK/LFR/KLW



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