Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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209 FXUS61 KLWX 020758 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 358 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY. A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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AS OF 3AM...JET STREAM FROM DESERT SW TO SRN NEW ENGLAND IN A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES. THERE IS A HIGH BUILDING EAST INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS HIGH WILL KEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ERN CONUS OVER THE NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED EAST WITH THE NEXT BATCH... AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...STILL HOLDING TOGETHER OVER WV. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS MESOSCALE DEVELOPMENT AND DETERMINE IF IT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH SUNRISE. LOW CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE AREA WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. FOG IS DEVELOPING AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS. TODAY...LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT STALLING OVER THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS LINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A WIND/HAIL THREAT IN 30 KT BULK SHEAR AND AROUND 1500 J/KG CAPE. PRESENCE OF DIFFERNTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY OF RETREATING CAD WEDGE CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL BAY BREEZE BRINGS A TORNADO THREAT TO THE BALT-WASH METRO. MAX TEMPS AROUND 80F FROM SUPERBLEND...HIGH BUST POTENTIAL AS CAD WEDGE WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA ALONG THE STALLED COLD FRONT CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH CONTINUED THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY...COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST IN WAKE OF SFC LOW...POPS DECREASE LATE. MAX TEMPS AROUND 70F. CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ERN CONUS.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE XTND PD WL BE THE UPR TROF SITUATED OVR THE NERN U.S. WED NGT-FRI. THIS WL ENSURE XTNSV CLD CVR FOR THE AREA ALONG W/ CHCS FOR RAFL. HIGH TEMPS - IN THE 60S...WL BE ABT TEN DEGS BLO NRML FOR ERLY MAY. LOW IS XPCTD TO LIFT TO THE NE SAT...BRINGING A RETURN VISIT FM THE SUN. AFTN HTG COULD BRING A CHC OF RW/TRW SAT. A CD FNT MAY PUSH THRU THE RGN SUNDAY AND BRING ANOTHER CHC FOR PCPN.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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XTNSV CLD CVR WL BE IN THE FCST OVR THE MID ATLC WED NGT- FRI...SUB-VFR CIGS MAY BE PSBL AT ALL TAF SITES.
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&& .MARINE...
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WINDS XPCTD TO STAY BLO SCA LVLS DURG THE SECOND HALF OF THE WK.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!

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