Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 241435 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1035 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY AND IT WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING WARMER CONDITIONS TODAY AND MONDAY. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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CENTER OF SFC HIGH REMAINS POSITIONED JUST OFFSHORE TODAY...KEEPING THE REGION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WX THRU THE DAY AND IN FACT HEADING INTO MONDAY. WAA ON THE S-SW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABV NORMAL...ALMOST 10 DEGREES...WITH HIGHS INCHING INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SCT CU EXPECTED MID DAY WITH SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DIURNAL HEATING. A FEW MODELS HINT AT A SHOWER IN THE WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON BUT FOR NOW BELIEVE ITS OVERDONE AND HAVE KEPT POPS LOW. HIGH CLOUDS COMBINED WITH CU MAY RESULT IN BROKEN TOTAL SKY COVER LATER ON SO NUDGED UP SKY COVER.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... SFC HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFFSHORE WHILE RIDGING BUILDS NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR SPLITTING THE CWA. OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL KEEP THE DRY WX PERSISTING THRU MON AND FOR MOST OF THE AREA THRU MON NIGHT. TONIGHT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS STAYING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO MON WITH STRONG WAA PUSHING 850MB TEMPS NEAR 15 DEGREES CELSIUS UNDER RISING HEIGHTS. PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL ALSO KEEP MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF HEATING...PUSHING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. DECENT MIXING WILL ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS...WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S PSBL LATE MORNING THRU EARLY EVENING. LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL DIMINISH WINDS BY MON NIGHT. FOR MON NIGHT...ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT REMAINING IN CONTROL. CLOUDS INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD DEBRIS FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE BRINGS A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE FAR WESTERN AREAS BY DAYBREAK TUES MORNING...WITH THE BETTER CHC OF PCPN OCCURRING LATER IN THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHEAST CONUS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL WEAKEN A BIT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY STRENGTHENING NEXT WEEKEND. A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF JULY AS OPPOSED TO LATE MAY. THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOST EXTENSIVE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEN THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE WEAKEST AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY ROTATE THROUGH IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT/VRB FLOW WILL INCREASE AFTR 14/15Z FROM THE S-SW...GENERALLY STAYING LESS THAN 10 KTS. KBWI MIGHT BACK TO 150-160 BY THIS AFTN...OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER SITES STAY 170-200 THRU THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS MON-MON NIGHT. INCRSG SLY FLOW MON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS EXPECTED AFTR 15-16Z AND LASTING UNTIL 22-00Z. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOST EXTENSIVE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .MARINE...
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WINDS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP ON THE BAY WITH POSSIBLE CHANNELING IN THE SLY FLOW WHICH COULD RESULT IN GUSTS 15-20 KTS...SO WILL MAINTAIN SCA BEGINNING AT 16Z. THIS SCA CONTINUES THRU TONIGHT. PSBL LULL AROUND 12Z MON...BUT EXPECTING WINDS TO INCREASE QUICKLY AFTR DAYBREAK MON MORNING...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS BUT THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC. WILL ISSUE SCA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...LASTING INTO MON NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOST EXTENSIVE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ531>533-538>542. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ534-543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ532-533-537- 541. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530-537.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BJL NEAR TERM...RCM/SEARS SHORT TERM...SEARS LONG TERM...BJL AVIATION...BJL/SEARS MARINE...RCM/BJL/SEARS

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