Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 280129 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 929 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC WILL LIFT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... AT 01Z...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SHOWERS SCATTERED ABOUT THE REGION. SOME TSTMS CROSSING SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...BUT I AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A STRAY RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN OUR CWA. PER THE HRRR...ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BY 06Z WHEN THE FRONT WILL HAVE PASSED THROUGH THE REGION AND WE START DRYING OUT. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE WITH US THROUGH DAWN...ESP EAST OF I-95. SUNDAY WILL START OUT SUNNY BUT QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING DEVELOP A CUMULUS DECK ALONG WITH A GUSTY WEST WIND OF 20-30 MPH. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL EXIST WEST OF I-81 IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING MAX DAYTIME HEATING. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... ANY WRAP-AROUND/ UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WILL END EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE FOUND IN ITS WAKE...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 50S EXCEPT IN THE URBAN AREAS AND COASTAL PLAIN. DUE TO THE EXTENT OF THE P- GRAD...WL STILL HV A GOOD WIND FIELD INTO THE EVENING HRS BEFORE SUBSIDENCE AND DIURNAL TRENDS RESULT IN SLACKENING WINDS. MONDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. KEPT SKIES MOSUN DUE TO THE DRY AMS AND SUBSIDENCE. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO AT THE VERY LEAST INCREASING CLOUDS. AT THIS POINT...MADE NO CHGS TO POP FCST...WHICH HAS CONFINED POPS WEST OF I- 81 OVERNIGHT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WARM FRONT AND SFC LOW MOVES OVER THE CWA TUES AND SLOWLY MOVES AWAY EARLY ON WED. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON WED EVE AND PUSHES SOUTH OF THE CWA WED NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH ON THURS AND LIFT ON FRI. SURFACE TROUGH MAY IMPACT THE REGION SAT. SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON TSTMS ARE PSBL AS THESE SYSTEMS IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. LOOKS LIKE THE DRIEST DAYS WILL BE WED AND SAT. THURS PRECIP IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPR 80S AND LOW TEMPS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND LOW CIGS GIVING MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMS THROUGH 06Z. CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 06Z SUN AFTER A COLD FRONT SHIFTS WIND WEST. WEST WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT SUNDAY IN VFR CONDS. WINDS WILL LINGER INTO SUN EVE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SUB- VFR DUE TO PSBL SHOWERS AND TSTMS...MAINLY ON TUES. && .MARINE... WINDS ON TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL BECOME GUSTY THROUGH SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY PASSES BY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED MONDAY NIGHT...AND CHANNELING OVER THE BAY IS POSSIBLE. SCA CONDITIONS PSBL TUES DUE TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS. WED MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH SOME PSBL AFTERNOON TSTMS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED TONIGHT ON THE PREFERRED HIGH TIDE. SELY FLOW 15 TO 25 KT HAS RAISED WATER DEPARTURES TO AROUND 1.5 FT ON THE BAY AND 2 FT IN THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC. WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE WILL SEE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT THE PARTICULARLY SENSITIVE SITE OF DC/ALEXANDRIA AND ANNAPOLIS WHERE AN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TONIGHT ON THE PREFERRED HIGH TIDE. CURRENT ADVISORY FOR WRN SHORE OF THE BAY AND DC/ALEXANDRIA FOR THE PREFERRED HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR DCZ001. MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ011-508. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ017-018. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ014. VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ054. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530>534- 537>543. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ538. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ542. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ535-536. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ535. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LEE NEAR TERM...LEE SHORT TERM...HTS LONG TERM...ADS/IMR AVIATION...LEE/ADS/IMR MARINE...LEE/ADS/IMR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ/ADS/IMR

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