Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 151421 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 921 AM EST SAT NOV 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN AREA OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY RAIN SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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STRONG HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER SRN IL IS RESPONSIBLE FOR TEMPS BEING WELL BLO NRML FOR MID NOV ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE ERN U.S. THIS WL LEAD TO A SUNNY DAY...BUT TEMPS WL BE MUCH BLO FOR THIS TIME OF YR. HIGHS ONLY IN THE LM40S...30S IN THE HIGHLANDS. NO PRES GRAD...SO THERE WON`T BE MUCH WIND. THIS WL MAKE IT MUCH MORE TOLERABLE TO BE OUTSIDE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
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HIGH PRES WL BE MOVG OFF THE CST TNGT BUT BLV EVE SKIES WL BE GENERALLY CLR. MID/HIGH CLDS COULD MOVE IN AFTR MDNGT BUT BLV RGN WL AGN SEE A NGT W/ TEMPS MUCH BLO NRML. LOWS IN THE 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...30S IN THE CITIES...TEENS IN THE HIGHLANDS.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SUNDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHILE ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF STATES ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTH. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CWA...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION LIKELY WOULD BE LIMITED. HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR MOST OF CWA. SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY...WHILE LOW PRESSURE BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. POPS INCREASE OVERNIGHT...WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MIN TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA WILL BE NEAR FREEZING...WITH THE MODEL ENVELOPE WAVERING ON EITHER SIDE OF 32. RAIN...SNOW OR A MIX POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AS WELL...BUT AFTER COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR PERSISTENCE AND TRENDS. LIQUID RAIN EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. DYNAMICS BECOME STRONGER AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION...WITH POTENTIAL FOR 50KT 850MB JET DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION BY LATE MORNING TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION. AVERAGE QPF AROUND A HALF INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN OVER THE CWA...WITH MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 WITH 40S ELSEWHERE. MINOR ACCUMULATING SNOW STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHLANDS...MORE SO IN THE EARLY MORNING AND AGAIN LATE AFTERNOON WITH A POTENTIAL UPSLOPE COMPONENT BEHIND THE LOW. COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE REGION DRYING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST. POSSIBLE LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE HIGHLANDS. MORE COLD AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT...AS HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST WILL BRING MORE COLD CANADIAN AIR. LOWS IN THE 20S OVER MOST OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY IN THE TEENS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT MAY BE DRY. HIGH TEMPS STAY IN THE 30S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN THE 40S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHT NW FLOW SHIFTS TO THE S LATE TONIGHT. PERIODS OF SUB-VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH PCPN. VFR AGAIN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
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&& .MARINE...
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MINIMAL SCA IN EFFECT FOR THE LWR PTMC/WIDER PART OF MD PART OF THE CHES BAY THRU 11 AM. 14Z OBS INDICATING A FEW SITES REACHING 18 KTS BUT CAN SEE A DOWNWARD TREND. WILL MOST LIKELY BE ALLOWING THE SCA TO EXPIRE AT 11 AM. AFTR NOON NO PROBS ON THE WATERS THRU SAT NGT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH. WINDS DECREASE MID-LATE WEEK.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ532>534-537-540>543. && $$

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