Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 140201 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1001 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 01Z...1027MB SFC HIGH OVER LOWER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. WLY/NWLY FLOW OVER THE CWA HAS DROPPED...BUT WITH MSLP 5 MB LOWER OVER THE DC AREA...A GRADIENT PERSISTS. WINDS AROUND 10 MPH EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND 40F IN ELEVATED VALLEYS ABOVE THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE THERE...BUT NO FROST ADVISORY IS ANTICIPATED AS MIXING SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE. THE CITIES AND ALONG THE BAY WL ONLY DROP INTO U50S...BUT MUCH OF THE CENTER OF THE FA SHOULD DROP TO THE U40S/A50. NO FOG OVERNIGHT FROM DRIER AIR MIXING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... IT`S LOOKING LK A BEAUTIFUL DAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRES BLDS OVR THE RGN. M SUNNY SKIES W/ HIGHS IN THE M70S. NO PROBS WX WISE FORESEEN SUN NGT/MON. ANOTHER COOLER NGT SUN NGT W/ LOWS GETTING INTO THE 40S W OF I-95. SHORT WV IN THE UPR FLOW MON NGT WL BRING AN INCRS IN CLD CVR. MON NGT`S TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND ABT 10 DEGS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE. A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL TRY TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BUT BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF MOISTURE...WE HAVE POPS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REINFORCE ITSELF SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN THE REGION. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. NO FOG AS NWLY FLOW MIXES THROUGH SUNRISE. WEAK COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS...THEN HIGH PRESSURE/VFR/NLY FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
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&& .MARINE...
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LULL THIS EVENING AFTER INITIAL PRESSURE SURGE THAT BROUGHT 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS ACROSS THE WATERS. THE GRADIENT INCREASES AGAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT EXPECTED AGAIN BY MIDNIGHT SO THE SCA CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT FOR ALL WATERS. SCA CONTINUES SUNDAY MORNING UNTIL 10 AM. WINDS DIMINISH QUICKLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS. WEAK COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...THEN NWLY/NLY FLOW (MAINLY LIGHT) THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...ENDING ANY COASTAL FLOOD THREAT (ADVISORY FOR ANNAPOLIS HAS BEEN CANCELLED). WINDS TURN SOUTH AGAIN LATE SUNDAY...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ELEVATED WATER LEVELS MONDAY.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530-531-535- 536-538-539-542. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537- 540-541-543.
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&& $$ UPDATE...JACKSON PREVIOUS...JACKSON/WOODY!/KLW

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