Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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302 FXUS61 KLWX 150226 AAA AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 926 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will pass through the region Wednesday. High pressure builds overhead Friday and holds into early next week. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...Moisture ahead of a southern stream disturbance will move into the Charlottesville and Fredericksburg areas overnight. Light rain is expected through late morning in those areas with QPF generally 0.1 inches or less. Over the Appalachians, moisture from a northern stream disturbance will move into the mtns after 06Z with light snow expected with less than inch of snow. Sharpening mid-upper level trough and associated cdfnt with nrn stream will move across the area around 18Z Wed triggering convective rain and snow showers. Have rain for southern MD and rain/snow for areas west of I-95 to U.S. Route 15 and snow west of there. These showers may produce strong gusty winds that could result in brief gale force and wind advisory gusts. No wind advisories are anticipated due to brief and convective nature of gusts, but the showers may require special marine warnings.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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Turning colder and brisk Wed night as two streams phase and sfc cyclogenesis occurs well offshore. Upslope precip will increase again with 1-2 inches of snow expected along the Allegheny front. Some of the snow showers may be able to make east of the mountain barrier given strengthening flow and Froude numbers exceeding 1.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Quiet weather in the long term forecast starting Friday as high pressure is centered to our south. Northwesterly flow will become southwesterly as high pressure moves off the southeast coast Friday night into Saturday, increasing the weekend temperatures in the 50s and 60s. An upper level disturbance could increase PoPs for Saturday night into Sunday morning as it moves to our south... but seeing mainly dry conditions over our CWA, and little impact to temperatures. High pressure builds back after this disturbance returning the dry weather late Sunday into Tuesday with high temperatures in the 50s and 60s. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Vfr conditions this afternoon through Thursday. Winds becoming west-northwest 15 to 20 knots gusts 25 knots Wednesday night through Thursday. Dry conditions expected Friday into Saturday, with maybe some showers Saturday night into early Sunday as an upper level disturbance moves near by. Dry conditions return Sunday into Monday. VFR conditions expected during this period.
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&& .MARINE...
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Small craft advisories are in effect Wednesday through Thursday for gusty northwest winds. Showers Wed afternoon may produce strong gusty winds and require SMWs. A gale warning may be needed for portions of the waters Thursday. Dry conditions expected Friday into Saturday, with maybe some showers Saturday night into early Sunday as an upper level disturbance moves near by. Dry conditions return Sunday into Monday. Winds expected to remain below the small craft advisory threshold, so not anticipating an advisory during this period at this moment.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Wednesday to 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ530>543.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...KLW NEAR TERM...LFR SHORT TERM...KLW LONG TERM...IMR AVIATION...IMR/KLW MARINE...IMR/KLW

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