Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 281509 AAA AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1009 AM EST Mon Nov 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Upper energy from a large low pressure system over the upper midwest will move into the region tonight and Tuesday, followed by a deepening surface low that moves across the area Wednesday night through Thursday. High pressure will return to the region Friday and Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Dense cirrus have already overspread the entire area this morning with clouds expected to continue to thicken and lower as the day progresses. Did introduce a small chance of PoPs for the southwest part of the fcst area for late this afternoon. However, the bulk of the rain is expected late tonight into tomorrow morning. A period of gusty winds is possible late tonight and early Tue over the higher elevations, but speeds likely to remain below advzy criteria. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Mild and turbulent Tuesday through Wednesday night with low pressure persisting over the north-central CONUS and a powerful jet streak overhead. Two bouts of a low level jet occur as shortwaves pass to our west, one late tonight/Tuesday and the second on Wednesday. Day 3 marginal outlook from SPC seems warranted as a SWly jet of 50 to 60 knots crosses. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The continued lack of cold air is the big story in the extended part of the forecast. A broad upper low looks to set up over eastern Canada while surface high pressure builds into the Mid Atlantic. Expect to see a return to the dry weather which has dominated area weather for the past several weeks. Highs will be around 50 Thurs-Sat with lows in the 30s. The next chance for precipitation will be on Sunday as a warm front moves through the region. Again temperatures will be in the upper 40s/lower 50s so p-type will be of the liquid variety. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High clouds thicken to mid-level through tonight. Rain showers develop late tonight across DC metros with gusts possible. Second round of gusty showers Wednesday. Outside of potential morning fog VFR conditions expected Thursday and Friday. && .MARINE... South winds increase today with SCA for all waters midday through Tuesday. Jet of strong winds in low levels Tuesday may warrant gale warning and again Wed afternoon and evening. SCA expected to continue through at least Thursday. SCA may be needed on Thursday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... South winds today through midweek will bring higher water levels and possibly flooding conditions as early as Tuesday. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ530>543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LFR NEAR TERM...LFR PRODUCTS...BAJ/Woody!

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