Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 191322 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 922 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WAS NOSING DOWN THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS LED TO AN EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. COMBINATION OF PVA AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS HAS TRANSLATED TO AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE CWA. SHOWERS PRODUCING MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAVE MAINLY BEEN LOCATED OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...ALTHOUGH LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST RELATIVELY HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES PUSHING FURTHER EAST INTO WESTERN MD/EASTERN WV PANHANDLE/NORTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY OF VA. WILL KEEP POPS FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE WESTWARD TO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS THE FURTHEST WEST CLOSER TO INFLUENCE FROM PVA ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS LEANS MORE TOWARD GFS/SREFS/WRF-ARW GUIDANCE. HRRR SUGGESTS MORE RAINFALL FURTHER EAST...AND WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES CAN/T BE RULED OUT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE BAY MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY AND IT WILL JUST BE A CLOUDY DAY. WITH EASTERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY /MAYBE MORE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE/. RE-POPULATED MAXT USING BIAS CORRECTED SREFS/ADJMAV BLEND.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... TONIGHT...WEDGE/ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE AREA...PROBABLY REINFORCED BY THE RAIN. CLOUDS REMAIN IN THE MID-LEVELS WITH ANY RAIN LIGHT. MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL WITH COOL ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUD COVER COUNTERACTING. SUNDAY...GLOOMY WEDGE DAY...BUT AT LEAST CLOUD CEILINGS LOOK TO REMAIN 5KFT OR SO. UPR TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INSTABILITY SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND WEST SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED THUNDER. GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A WARM BIAS...SO WENT FOR MAX TEMPS AROUND 80F. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE XTND LOOKS TO BE A TALE OF A SLOW WARM UP FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPS TO END THE WK. WK TROFFING SHOULD BE LIFTING OUT DURG MON...TO BE FOLLOWED BY WHAT MIGHT BE REFERRED TO AS A HIGH ZNL UPR LVL PATTERN DURG MIDWK. THE SWRN U.S. WL SCORCH AS A RDG WHICH MAY REACH 600 DM (!) FORMS OVR THE 4 CORNERS AREA WED. AT THE SAME TIME THE MID ATLC WL SEE TEMPS RISE SLOWLY INTO THE LM90S BY WED. LOWS WL CREEP UP INTO THE M60S BY MIDWEEK...WHICH IS THE CLIMO NORM FOR THIS TIME IN JUL. THE BETTER TSTM CHCS LOOK TO BE ON THU AS ANOTHER (A SOMEWHAT RARE TERM AT THIS TIME OF YR) CD FNT/UPR TROF SLIDES OVR THE TOP OF THE SWRN RIDGE ONTO THE E CST. CONTINENTAL HIGH PRES RETURNS TO THE AREA FRI...BRINGING CLRG SKIES W/ HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO THE M80S. && .AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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STABLE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAY BE HAVE -RA AT MRB TODAY...BUT IT LOOKS AS IF RAIN SHOLD REMAIN WEST OF THE HUBS. IN THE XTND VFR CONDS XPCTD MAJORITY OF THE TIME SUN NGT-WED. BEST CHC OF TSTMS WOULD BE WED..BUT MOST LKLY A BETTER CHC ON THU.
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&& .MARINE... ONSHORE FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNDAY. FLOW GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES SUN NGT-WED. CHC OF TSTMS WED...BUT MOST LKLY A BETTER CHC ON THU. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BPP/BAJ/ABW NEAR TERM...BPP SHORT TERM...BAJ LONG TERM...ABW AVIATION...BPP/BAJ/ABW MARINE...BPP/BAJ/ABW

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