Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 102244
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
644 PM EDT THU APR 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF THE EAST COAST. A COLD FRONT OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST WILL SAG SOUTH...MOVING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH...WILL PREVAIL UNTIL A COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THE 2014 DC CHERRY BLOSSOM SAGA HAS COME TO AN END...NPS REPORTS
PEAK BLOOM TODAY - LATEST SINCE 1993 (4/11) - THE YR OF THE "STORM
OF THE CENTURY." THIS YR THE FEB/MAR AVG TEMP WAS 40.4. IN 1993 THE AVG
TEMP WAS 38.3. THE HIGHEST AVG TEMP SINCE 1920 WAS IN 2012 - 50.6.
THAT YR PEAK BLOOM WAS 3/20.

MIN TEMPS ABOUT 20 DEGREES HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT FOR INLAND
AREAS WITH THE MIXING FLOW AND INCREASING LATE NIGHT CLOUDS AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NWRN CWA FRI AFTERNOON AND LINGERS THROUGH
THE EVENING. LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS. SREF CALIBRATED THUNDER
PRODUCT CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT NWRN HALF OF THE CWA FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER...SO ADDED ISO T TO THE GRIDS. WITH PRECIP
SPREADING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO
GENERALLY INCREASE NW TO SE ACROSS THE CWA. 80F IS POSSIBLE OVER
CNTRL VA WITH SWLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH BEFORE BECOMING NWLY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

NWLY FLOW GUSTING TO AROUND 20 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH MIN TEMPS MID 40S NW OF DC TO MID 50S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LEADING EDGE OF THERMAL RIDGE STARTS ITS RETURN NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY AS LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWING SOME MOISTURE IN THE LOWER TROP
INCREASING WITH THIS PUSH OF WARMER AIR....HOWEVER MID TO UPPER
LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY. WILL LIKELY SEE CLOUDS WITH THIS WARM
FRONT. MODELS ALL SPIT OUT VERY LITTLE QPF AT DIFFERENT LOCATIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE.
DRIZZLE DOES LOOK POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS LOOK LOW.
WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY ATTM BUT HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
MID-ATLANTIC IS WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR FOR SUNDAY WITH AN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW/WIND FAVORING GOOD MIXING. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY TRAILING A COLD FRONT. 00Z ECMWF IS
SLOWER THAN THE GFS BUT BOTH MODELS HAVE MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S DURING LATER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL TAFS. S-SWLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 25
KT INTO THIS EVENING...THEN 15 TO 20 SWLY FLOW FRIDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING (FROM NW TO SE)
WITH ISOLATED THUNDER MAINLY NW OF DC. PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
WANES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY SUNDAY BEHIND
A WARM FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR ALL WATERS INTO LATE TONIGHT BEFORE WESTERN TRIBUTARIES
DROP OFF. CONTINUE SCA THROUGH MID-FRIDAY MORNING FOR MOST OF THE
MD PART OF THE BAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR NWLY GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
20 KT FRIDAY EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

SCA MAY BE MET SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A WARM
FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND LOW
FUEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR THE SPREAD OF
WILDFIRES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE AND WINDS SLOWLY
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. COLD FRONT AND LIKELY SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537-
     539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ538-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...BAJ/AEB/CEM






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