Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 221845
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
145 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
TRACK OFF THE DELMARVA SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR THE VA PIEDMONT. VIS
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH NOON.

PREV...

HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT AS
PRECIP HAS MOVED OFF AND THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS GONE. HAVE
ALSO TRIMMED SOME OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. IT/S STILL IN EFFECT
FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN VA PIEDMONT BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE THROUGH 11 AM AND FEEL THAT EXPIRATION AT 11 AM WILL BE
FINE.

FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WHICH WILL HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC BY MORNING. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
RESULT IN LOWS IN THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SOME TEENS IN THE
HIGHLANDS AND LOW 30S OVER DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON DC AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAST FLOW RMNS THE TERM BEST DESCRIBING THE WX PATTERN AS WE MOVE
INTO THE LATTER PART OF JAN. HIGH PRES OVR THE RGN ERLY FRI WL BE
MOVG OFF THE CST...AND XPCT TO SEE HIGH CLDS ON THE INCRS FRI
AFTN AHD OF LOW PRES DVLPG IN THE NRN GULFMEX. HIGHS FRI IN THE
U30S/L40S.

FRI NGT/SAT MID ALTC WL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW AS IT
TRANSFERS ENERGY FM THE GULF STATES TO NEAR ORF SAT MRNG. TEMPS
FRI NGT XPCTD TO BE A FEW DEGS BLO FRZG. THE 850-1000 TCKNS ARE
RIGHT ARND 1300 DM. ONE THING THAT LEADS ME TO THINK P-TYPE LEANS
TOWARDS SN IS THAT THE PCPN WL BEGIN OVRNGT. IT IS PSBL THAT THIS
WL CHG TO RA ALONG THE WRN SHORE OF THE BAY. THERE MAY ALSO BE A
DEGREE OF ELEVATION DEPENDENCY TO THIS EVENT.

DURG DAY SAT THE LOW IS XPCTD TRACK E OF THE DELMARVA. HIGHEST
POPS WL BE IN THE ERN PART OF THE FCST AREA - ALONG THE BAY PCPN
SHOULD CHG TO RA...W OF I-95 A RASN MIX...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW
FURTHER W...ALTHO W OF THE BLU RDG POPS WL BE LOWER. PCPN SHOULD
BE COMING TO AN END FM SW TO NE DURG THE AFTN. HIGHS GNRLY 35-40.

HIGH PRES BRIEFLY RETURNS SAT NGT/SUN...THEN THE NEXT SYSTEM
TRACKS RAPIDLY INTO THE MID ATLC COURTESY OF A 140 KT JET AND THE
WRN RDG/ERN TROF UPR LVL PATN. ATTM THIS LOW LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTM - IT WL NOT BE DIVING INTO THE GULF LK THE SAT
STORM. FOR NOW WL KEEP THE CHC OF SN ACROSS THE AREA. IT`S TOO
ERLY TO TRY TO GET INTO SPECIFICS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VIS/CIG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH 16Z...WITH PREVAILING VFR
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRI...W/ INCRSG CLDS FRI NGT
EVENTUALLY BCMG SUB- VFR. INCREASING CHC OF IFR OR LOWER LATE FRI
NGT/SAT WITH PCPN. CONDS IMPRVG LATE SAT AFTN. NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS
TO ARRIVE SUN NGT/MON MRNG.

MIDDLE OF NEXT WK - CHILLY TEMPS AS COLD HIGH PRES MOVES OVR THE
RGN.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED SCA FOR THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY/UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC
EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON AS NW SURGE HAS ALLOWED FOR 20 KT GUSTS.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FRIDAY. SCA LVL WINDS LOOK LKLY SAT AFTN/EVE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ530>533-535-536-538>541.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...







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