Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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FXUS61 KLWX 211434
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1034 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND MOVE OFF
THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE
WEEKEND. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL DEVELOP AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
OVERRUNNING LIGHT RAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THIS MORNING...WITH
SFC LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS. MINIMAL FORCING ALOFT WILL KEEP PCPN
LIGHT AND OCNL IN NATURE...WITH ONLY BRIEF PERIODS OF MOD RAIN
OCCURRING MAINLY OVER THE PIEDMONT AND SOUTH. 14Z WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWING DRY AIR SLOWLY INCHING TO THE NORTH AND
EAST...WHICH SHOULD MOVE IN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MID
AFTN...AIDING IN ENDING THE PCPN. THINKING EAST OF BLUE
RIDGE WILL SEE OFF/ON PCPN THRU THE AFTN...THEN TAPERING OFF THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW PUSHES TO THE EAST...AND WINDS COME AROUND THE
NW AND USHERS IN THE DRIER AIR.

OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND PCPN HAVE KEPT THE TEMPS FROM CLIMBING TOO
QUICKLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH STILL EXPECTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
50S. DC/BALTIMORE METRO AREAS WILL PUSH INTO THE 60S.

BY TONIGHT...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. COOLER AIR IN PLACE
WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY DURING THE DAY
AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH WHICH COULD
PROVIDE A FEW SHOWERS BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY DRY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S CAN BE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN IN THE
UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN STORY FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HOT
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY
WITH AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THE RIDGE WILL BECOME VERY PRONOUNCED AND HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S ON MEMORIAL DAY FOLLOWED BY 90S FOR
MOST AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW MIDDLE AND
UPPER 90 DEGREE READINGS MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE METRO
AREAS. ALL OF THE HEAT AND INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH LIGHT RAIN IMPACTING THE
TERMINALS. LOW CONFIDENCE OF CIGS DROPPING TO IFR...SO WILL HOLD
OFF FROM INCLUDING FOR NOW. BEST CHC IF THEY DO DROP WOULD BE
15-20Z. CIGS BEGIN TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING...THOUGH TIMING COULD
BE OFF 1-2 HOURS. WINDS ARE LIGHT/VRB TODAY...BCMG NW TONIGHT AND
INCRSG.

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE ISSUED SCA FOR THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY TO ACCOUNT FOR OCNL
GUSTS ALREADY REACHING 20 KTS AND THIS CONTINUING THRU THE AFTN.
THIS SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING...WITH SUB-SCA GUSTS
EXPECTED FOR A PORTION OF THE NIGHT BEFORE INCRSNG AGAIN FRI
MORNING WHEN THE NEXT SCA GOES INTO EFFECT.

SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY OVER MUCH OF
THE WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER BAY OVER THE
WEEKEND. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ531>534-540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR/KRW
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...KRW
LONG TERM...KRW
AVIATION...LFR/KRW/SEARS
MARINE...LFR/KRW/SEARS


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