Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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FXUS61 KLWX 141327
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
927 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

DFNTLY AN EARLY AUTUMN FEEL TO THE AIR THIS MRNG...

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE. HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S OVER MOST OF THE AREA...AND UPPER 60S IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN US
SUNDAY NIGHT. RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOG IN A FEW
SPOTS...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST
RIGHT NOW. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THEY WERE
SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT FROST FORMATION IN ELEVATED AREAS.

RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE COAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC. HIGH TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND A FEW SPOTS MAY TOUCH 80. LOW 70S EXPECTED AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPS IN THE 50S
FOR MOST...AND IN THE LOW 60S ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CDFNT SLIPPING OFFSHR TUE MRNG. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING SHRA ELY.
ALTHO ITS NOT VERY LKLY...HV KEPT A CHC E OF I-95. THE HIER PRIORITY
FOR THE DAY WL BE THE DRY/CAA ON NW FLOW. MRNG CLDS WL DSPT...
PROVIDING A SUNNY AFTN. THERE SHUD BE SOME CONTRIBUTION FM
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING...SO HV KEPT MAXT IN THE MID 70S. BUT AS WNDS
SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET...AM XPCTG TEMPS TO DROP AGN. HV MIN-T IN THE
40S W OF THE BLURDG AND IN N-CENTRL MD.

HIPRES WL BE THE CONTROLLING WX FEATURE FOR THE REST OF THE WK.
UNDER SUBSIDENCE...DAYTIME SKIES WL BE MOSUN. FCST TEMPS COOLER THAN
AVG FOR MID SEPT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

PERIODS OF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS.

VFR FLGT CONDS XPCTD FOR THE OUTLOOK PD UNDER HIPRES.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA UNTIL 10 AM FOR PORTIONS OF CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE TIDAL
POTOMAC AND THE PATAPSCO RIVER.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO
BE LIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY MONDAY...BUT BELOW SCA.

A CDFNT WL CLEAR THE WATERS DURING THE MRNG HRS TUE. NW WNDS BHD THE
FNT WL PROVIDE A WELL-MIXED ATMOS...W/ WNDS AT THE TOP OF THE LYR
SUPPORTIVE OF SCA GUSTS. WNDS WL SUBSIDE AT NGT...AND SHUD REMAIN
BLO ADVY CRIT THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ531>534-536>538-540-541-543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...KCS/HTS







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