Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 180757
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
357 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS POSITIONED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A WEAK COLD
FRONT OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. COOL AND
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FROM THE MIDDWEEK UNTIL THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

WE ARE KEEPING AN EYE ON FOG PTNL...ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL SHEN
VLLY. ATTM OBS SHOWING ONLY A FEW SPOTS W/ LOW VSBY. TRAFFIC CAMS
NOT LOOKING BAD EITHER.

BACKDOOR CD FNT IS REALLY QUITE WK. W.V. IMGRY MAY BE A GOOD WAY
TO FIND IT...WHICH SHOWS A BNDRY OVR CENTRAL NJ/NERN PA. THE EURO
850-1000 THCKNS ALSO SEEM TO HV A HANDLE ON THIS...AND IT DOESN`T
PROJECT MUCH SWD MVMNT. THIS WL KEEP MID ATLC IN WARM MOIST AIR
MASS. MDLS ARE PROJECTING HIGH POPS...LKLYS AND EVEN CATS. GNRLY
AS WE ENTER THE CNVTV SEASON IT BECOMES HARDER TO FCST PCPN CHCS
THAT HIGH W/O A MAJOR SYSTEM APRCHG - PRIMARILY A STRNG CD FNT W/
A LN OF STORMS ON THE RGNL RDR. NEITHER OF THESE IS OCCURRING ATTM
SO HV FOCUSED ON THE AFTN/EVE AS BEING THE BEST TIME FOR RW/TSTMS.

THE WIND FIELD IS VERY WK TDA. W/O SHEAR THE PSBLTY OF SVR STORMS
IS LOW-TO-NON EXISTANT. SOME CELLS THAT DO DVLP COULD PRODUCE HVY
RAFL...PARTLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE WIND WL BE SO LGT THAT
STORMS WON`T BE MOVG.

HIGH TEMPS WL REACH THE U80S.



&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION
TONIGHT AS A FRONT WHILE THE BACKDOOR BNDRY WASHES OUT. A WARM NGT
W/ LOWS IN MOST OF THE AREA IN THE 60S...L70S IN THE CITIES.

A CD FNT XTNDG FM MN TO KS WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLC DURG THE
1ST HALF OF TUE GENERATING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE COOLER AND DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

RETURN TO MORE SPRING-LIKE WX WED WITH MUCH DRIER/COOLER AIR MOVING
INTO AREA. LOW TEMPS WED MORNING WILL BE MAINLY IN 50S...EXCEPT IN
METRO AREAS (L60S). MAX TEMPS WED ALSO VERY NICE...WITH M60S
WEST...U60S/L70S CENTRAL...AND M70S SOUTHEAST PARTS OF CWA UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. ONLY WX CONCERNS WED WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR
BAY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

00Z MODEL GUIDANCE INCONSISTENT WITH REGARDS TO POTENTIAL WEAK SFC LP
MOVING TO OUR SOUTH LATE WED OR THU. PRECIP SIGNAL GENERALLY A RESULT
OF LIFT FROM FAVORABLE LOCATION OF RRQ OF UPPER JET. 00Z NAM MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF TOTALS...BUT BELIEVE NAM IS LIKELY OVERDONE DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE AND UNFAVORABLE TRACK OF SFC LP. FOR NOW...KEPT POPS
LOW WITH ONLY SLT CHC FOR SHOWERS NORTH AND CHC SOUTH.

THINGS QUIET DOWN AGAIN AFTER THU...WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND AND A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HP SETTLES INTO THE REGION. BY SUN
RETURN FLOW WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS BACK INTO THE U70S/L80S...WITH LOW
TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE 60S DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PDS OF FOG MAY STILL DVLP AT CHO/MRB OVRNGT...OTHERWISE VFR AT THE
TAF SITES. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS XPCTD MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HOW MUCH TSTM ACTIVITY DVLPS TDA WL PLAY A PART ON WHETHER OR NOT
FOG DVLPS OVRNGT. RW/TRW WL AGN BE PSBL TUE...MOSTLY DURG LATE
MRNG AND AFTN.

VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. LOW CHC FOR IFR CONDS IF SHWRS DEVELOP
THU...WITH BEST CHCS FOR CHO.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE WATERS WHICH MAY REQUIRE THE
ISSUANCE OF SMWS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NO MARINE HAZARDS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NGT THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.
NO MARINE CONCERNS THU.

&&

.CLIMATE...
IAD TIED A RECORD HIGH MIN TEMP YDA. UNUSUALLY WARM WEATHER IS FORECAST
THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. BELOW IS A LIST OF RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FOR MAY 18TH AND 19TH.

SITE...MAY 18TH.........MAY 19TH.........

DCA....68 (1995*).......70 (1986/1962)...
BWI....68 (1900/1896)...75 (1877)........
IAD....66 (1995)........66 (1969)........

*ALSO IN 1953...1943 AND 1900.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/MSE


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